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It\u2019s all set up for a huge final round including a pair of early elimination finals, with West Coast vs Carlton and Adelaide vs Fremantle both potential do-or-die deciders.<\/p>\n
See all the scenarios for the contenders and more in our AFLW Run Home!<\/p>\n
AFLW LADDER (After Round 11)<\/p>\n
1. North Melbourne (11-0, 317.9%)<\/p>\n
2. Hawthorn (9-2, 118.3%)<\/p>\n
3. Melbourne (8-3, 221.6%)<\/p>\n
4. Brisbane Lions (8-3, 161.7%)<\/p>\n
5. Carlton (7-4, 113.3%)<\/p>\n
6. St Kilda (7-4, 96.3%)<\/p>\n
7. West Coast Eagles (6-5, 118.1%)<\/p>\n
8. Adelaide Crows (6-5, 109.7%)<\/p>\n
9. Sydney Swans (6-5, 108.4%)<\/p>\n
10. Fremantle (6-5, 82.2%)<\/p>\n
11. Port Adelaide (5-6, 95.3%)<\/p>\n
12. Geelong (5-6, 94.8%)<\/p>\n
13. Western Bulldogs (4-7, 115.9%)<\/p>\n
14. Collingwood (3-8, 62.3%)<\/p>\n
15. Essendon (3-8, 58.6%)<\/p>\n
16. GWS Giants (2-9, 62.8%)<\/p>\n
17. Richmond (2-9, 59.6%)<\/p>\n
18. Gold Coast Suns (1-10, 37.5%)<\/p>\n
AFLW ROUND 12 FIXTURE (All times AEDT)<\/p>\n
Hawthorn (2nd) vs North Melbourne (1st), Friday 7:15pm at Kinetic Stadium<\/p>\n
West Coast Eagles (7th) vs Carlton (5th), Friday 9:15pm at Sullivan Logistics Stadium<\/p>\n
GWS Giants (16th) vs Port Adelaide (11th), Saturday 1:05pm at Henson Park<\/p>\n
Richmond (17th) vs Gold Coast Suns (18th), Saturday 3:05pm at IKON Park<\/p>\n
Sydney Swans (9th) vs Essendon (15th), Saturday 5:05pm at C\u2019ex Coffs International Stadum<\/p>\n
Geelong (12th) vs Melbourne (3rd), Saturday 7:15pm at GMHBA Stadium<\/p>\n
Collingwood (14th) vs Brisbane Lions (4th), Sunday 1:05pm at Victoria Park<\/p>\n
St Kilda (6th) vs Western Bulldogs (13th), Sunday 3:05pm at RSEA Park<\/p>\n
Adelaide Crows (8th) vs Fremantle (10th), Sunday 5:05pm at Norwood Oval<\/p>\n
See the AFLW finals scenarios in The Run Home.Source: FOX SPORTS<\/p>\n
FINALS SCENARIOS FOR EVERY CONTENDER<\/p>\n
1. North Melbourne (11-0, 317.9%)<\/p>\n
Opponent: Hawthorn at Kinetic Stadium, Friday 7:15pm<\/p>\n
Win or lose: Finish 1st<\/p>\n
The Kangaroos will claim the minor premiership regardless of the result against Hawthorn, and will break the V\/AFL\/W record for the longest ever winning streak (24 games) if they get the job done.<\/p>\n
2. Hawthorn (9-2, 118.3%)<\/p>\n
Opponent: North Melbourne at Kinetic Stadium, Friday 7:15pm<\/p>\n
Win: Finish 2nd<\/p>\n
Lose: Finish 2nd if Melbourne and Brisbane lose, 3rd if one loses, 4th if neither lose<\/p>\n
It\u2019s pretty simple for the Hawks. If they can pull the huge upset over the Kangaroos on Friday night, they\u2019ll host a qualifying final. If they lose, they\u2019re very likely to drop into fourth and face the Kangaroos again in their qualifying final.<\/p>\n
3. Melbourne (8-3, 221.6%)<\/p>\n
Opponent: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 7:15pm<\/p>\n
Win: Finish 2nd if Hawthorn loses, 3rd if Hawthorn wins<\/p>\n
Lose: Finish 3rd if Brisbane loses, 4th if Brisbane wins<\/p>\n
Despite their loss to the Lions, the Demons are right in the mix for second spot. They would just need to win, while Hawthorn loses to North Melbourne. That should see Melbourne hosting Brisbane in a qualifying final, unless the Lions also lose, in which case the Demons would face the Hawks. If the Demons lose they are likely copping the Kangaroos in a qualifying final.<\/p>\n
4. Brisbane Lions (8-3, 161.7%)<\/p>\n
Opponent: Collingwood at Victoria Park, Sunday 1:05pm<\/p>\n
Win: Finish 2nd if both Hawthorn and Melbourne lose, 3rd if one loses, 4th if neither lose<\/p>\n
Lose: Finish 4th<\/p>\n
Thanks to their immense percentage lead on the chasing pack, the Lions cannot realistically miss the top four, even if they are upset by the lowly Magpies. They can avoid facing North Melbourne in a qualifying final if one of Hawthorn or Melbourne loses. Their most likely scenario is a rematch with the Demons, though probably in Victoria this time.<\/p>\n
Should the AFLW season be moved? | 03:50<\/p>\n
5. Carlton (7-4, 113.3%)<\/p>\n
Opponent: West Coast Eagles at Sullivan Logistics Stadium, Friday 9:15pm<\/p>\n
Win: Play finals (very likely finish 5th)<\/p>\n
Lose: Play finals unless St Kilda, Adelaide and Sydney all win and pass them on percentage<\/p>\n
A handy percentage booster over the Giants should be enough to give the Blues a spot in the finals, though letting the visitors score post-lightning delay could be costly. To miss out, they\u2019d need to lose combined with a St Kilda win (vs Bulldogs) and strong wins by Adelaide (vs Fremantle) and Sydney (vs Essendon). That\u2019s certainly a plausible series of results though, with the Blues\u2019 percentage lead over the Crows and Swans worth something like three or four goals. It was around six goals at the time of the lightning break.<\/p>\n
6. St Kilda (7-4, 96.3%)<\/p>\n
Opponent: Western Bulldogs at RSEA Park, Sunday 3:05pm<\/p>\n
Win: Play finals (finish 5th or 6th)<\/p>\n
Lose: Miss finals if at least two of West Coast, Sydney and Adelaide win<\/p>\n
Their percentage took a hit against the Kangaroos as expected, but the Saints can still clinch a finals berth by beating the Bulldogs next Sunday. Realistically they would finish either fifth or sixth with a win. But it\u2019s also possible they\u2019ll have clinched their place by the time they play, if Carlton beats West Coast and Essendon upsets Sydney. Fremantle beating Adelaide would also help the Saints, given the Dockers are unlikely to catch them on percentage.<\/p>\n
7. West Coast Eagles (6-5, 118.1%)<\/p>\n
Opponent: Carlton at Sullivan Logistics Stadium, Friday 9:15pm<\/p>\n
Win: Play finals (very likely finish 5th or 6th)<\/p>\n
Lose: Miss finals unless Essendon def Sydney<\/p>\n
Despite a disappointing loss to Sydney, the Eagles can still clinch a finals berth with a win at home next Friday night – since they would almost certainly climb above Carlton in the process. Should the Eagles lose, they\u2019ll have a nervous wait for Sydney\u2019s clash with Essendon, needing the Bombers to spring the upset. But if the Swans win, the Eagles will drop to eighth, and then will be knocked out of the finals by the Adelaide-Fremantle winner.<\/p>\n
8. Adelaide Crows (6-5, 109.7%)<\/p>\n
Opponent: Fremantle at Norwood Oval, Sunday 5:05pm<\/p>\n
Win: Play finals, unless Sydney also wins and by more (finish 6th, 7th or 8th)<\/p>\n
Lose: Miss finals, unless Sydney also loses and by more<\/p>\n
Possession is nine tenths of the law in the Crows\u2019 case, as their narrow edge on percentage could yet prove important. Playing last in Round 12, they\u2019ll know exactly what they need to do to play finals – whether that\u2019s winning by any margin (if any of St Kilda, West Coast or Sydney lose), or winning by a particularly big margin (if St Kilda, West Coast and Sydney win). There is even a scenario where the Crows lose by so little they can hold onto eighth anyway.<\/p>\n
Have we seen the AFLW Mark of the Year? | 01:03<\/p>\n
9. Sydney Swans (6-5, 108.4%)<\/p>\n
Opponent: Essendon at C.ex Coffs International Stadium, Saturday 5:05pm<\/p>\n
Win: Play finals, as long as St Kilda, West Coast and Adelaide don\u2019t all win and stay above them on percentage (finish 6th, 7th or 8th)<\/p>\n
Lose: Miss finals (unless they lose by less than Adelaide does, in which case they could sneak ahead on percentage)<\/p>\n
Thanks to their win over West Coast, the Swans are very likely to play finals if they beat Essendon, as they can pass three of the four teams above them. The simplest scenario would be them beating the Bombers, plus Carlton beating West Coast. Alternatively they can rely on St Kilda losing to the Bulldogs, or Fremantle to beat Adelaide, as percentage should put Sydney into the finals in those scenarios. However if West Coast, St Kilda and Adelaide all win, the Swans could still miss on percentage (unless West Coast beats Carlton by plenty and sends them below Sydney on percentage). And in that scenario the Crows would be playing last while knowing exactly how much they need to win by. <\/p>\n
10. Fremantle (6-5, 82.2%)<\/p>\n
Opponent: Adelaide Crows at Norwood Oval, Sunday 5:05pm<\/p>\n
Win: Play finals if at least one of West Coast or Sydney loses (likely finish 8th)<\/p>\n
Lose: Miss finals<\/p>\n
Three wins in a row have kept the Dockers in the finals race, and their path isn\u2019t super complicated. They can get to 28 points by beating Adelaide, and then they\u2019d just need either West Coast (vs Carlton) or Sydney (vs Essendon) to have lost earlier in the round to clinch a finals spot. Otherwise percentage – or simply losing to the Crows – will keep them out.<\/p>\n
11. Port Adelaide (5-6, 95.3%)<\/p>\n
Opponent: GWS Giants at Henson Park, Saturday 1:05pm<\/p>\n
12. Geelong (5-6, 94.8%)<\/p>\n
Opponent: Melbourne at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 7:15pm<\/p>\n
These teams are alive but need a miracle, because they can only catch the teams on 24 points (West Coast, Adelaide, Sydney, Fremantle) – and two of those teams play each other. So to sneak into eighth, either the Power and Cats would need…<\/p>\n
– Big win in their game<\/p>\n
– West Coast to lose to Carlton by a lot<\/p>\n
– Sydney to lose to Essendon by less but still a lot<\/p>\n
– And ideally Adelaide beats Fremantle because if Fremantle wins, it\u2019s likely Adelaide stays ahead of Port\/Geelong on percentage anyway<\/p>\n
The Western Bulldogs, Essendon, GWS Giants, Richmond, Collingwood and Gold Coast cannot play finals.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The AFLW season is drawing to a dramatic conclusion with 12 teams left in the race for finals…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":241548,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[638,64,63,55,639,85],"class_list":{"0":"post-241547","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-afl","8":"tag-afl","9":"tag-au","10":"tag-australia","11":"tag-australian-football-league","12":"tag-australianfootballleague","13":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241547","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=241547"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241547\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/241548"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=241547"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=241547"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=241547"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}