In 2019, OpenAI and Microsoft struck a partnership governed in part by a nebulous \u201cAGI clause.\u201d The deal declared that Microsoft held the rights to use OpenAI\u2019s technology, but only until OpenAI achieved AGI\u2026 whatever that turned out to mean. OpenAI had an obvious incentive to announce it had achieved AGI as soon as possible, to stifle competition and regain control of its own IP. Microsoft had a similarly obvious incentive to add friction to that process, even as it supported AGI as an overall goal of AI.<\/p>\n
OpenAI\u2019s restructuring was dependent on Microsoft\u2019s green light \u2014 and OpenAI would\u2019ve lost out on as much as $10 billion<\/a> if the for-profit conversion didn\u2019t happen by New Year\u2019s Eve. Microsoft seemed to win several concessions in the resulting negotiations. As part of the companies\u2019 new deal<\/a>, \u201conce AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel\u201d \u2014 it won\u2019t solely be OpenAI\u2019s decision. And now, Microsoft also doesn\u2019t lose all its rights to the tech, either. \u201cMicrosoft\u2019s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now include models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails,\u201d according to the new deal.<\/p>\n One of the most significant changes, though, was that Microsoft can also now \u201cindependently pursue AGI alone or in partnership with third parties\u201d \u2014 meaning the AGI arms race is on in a way it\u2019s never been before. Things are about to get even more intense than they already were, as absurd as that might sound.<\/p>\n For one thing, Microsoft is perfectly within its legal rights to use OpenAI\u2019s IP to develop its own AGI and attempt to win the race. Yes, it\u2019d face some consequences: if it does use OpenAI\u2019s IP to achieve the milestone, then the models will be subject to certain compute limitations until AGI is officially declared. But remember, Microsoft has full IP rights to OpenAI\u2019s research (at least, through 2030 or when the expert panel verifies AGI has been reached, \u201cwhichever is first\u201d). That means Microsoft can even access models solely intended for OpenAI\u2019s internal use, or for research purposes, as well as \u201cconfidential methods used in the development of models and systems.\u201d<\/p>\n Microsoft could also work with one or many of OpenAI\u2019s own competitors in its race to hit AGI. Last month, Microsoft began buying AI<\/a> from OpenAI\u2019s arguably biggest rival, Anthropic, in a move to diversify its AI partnerships; we could see the company work with Anthropic or any number of other startups in the near future.<\/p>\n The stakes of declaring that humanity has achieved AGI are huge. At the same time, this deal is being struck after months of AI developers shifting goalposts, often in ways that indicate AGI could be just around the corner. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has alluded to AGI coming in 2025 or at least the next few years, writing<\/a> in January, \u201cWe are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it.\u201d Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has predicted<\/a> that \u201cpowerful AI,\u201d a term he prefers to use over AGI, could be here \u201cas early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.\u201d It\u2019s a term we\u2019ve heard from executives on earnings calls, a question we\u2019ve seen on message boards for tech CEOs, and the stuff of countless memes.<\/p>\n One thing OpenAI did get out of the new Microsoft deal, besides the ability to go ahead with its for-profit restructuring, is the fact that Microsoft has no access to IP for its consumer hardware. That means the startup is likely betting big on its coming AI device, which it\u2019s working to develop with famed former Apple designer Jony Ive. Altman doubled down on that during a Tuesday livestream, highlighting that OpenAI is looking to build \u201ca personal AGI you can use anywhere, to help you with work and your personal life.\u201d The new goal OpenAI highlighted was part of a growing trend of companies narrowing their focus to \u201cpersonal AGI\u201d and consumer hardware, similar to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg\u2019s own AGI manifesto promoting<\/a> \u201cpersonal superintelligence.\u201d<\/p>\n The idea of a panel determining whether OpenAI achieved AGI makes sense in a lot of ways. AGI is such a buzzword that it doesn\u2019t necessarily make sense for one company to declare it\u2019s reached the milestone with no external input, especially when such an announcement would have huge ripple effects, particularly in the financial markets. Even Altman said during Tuesday\u2019s livestream that the term AGI has become \u201chugely overloaded\u201d and doesn\u2019t mean as much as it did before. So it stands to reason that a panel of experts should help define it. The question, of course, will be who chooses those experts. OpenAI and Microsoft haven\u2019t released any details about how the panel will be picked, and OpenAI declined to offer any further details when contacted by The Verge.<\/p>\n Altman himself said, in a Q&A with reporters earlier this month at the company\u2019s annual DevDay, that \u201cthere are many parts of AI that I think are kind of bubble-y right now.\u201d<\/p>\n During Tuesday\u2019s livestream, chief scientist Jakub Pachocki said that as companies scale deep learning and develop new algorithms, AI will eventually surpass some aspects of human intelligence on the curve of intelligence and \u201calready [has] surpassed on multiple axes.\u201d But, he said, even achieving that \u201cdoesn\u2019t actually mean you\u2019ve solved all the problems around it, which is something we need to seriously think about.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201c[AGI] will be this process over a number of years that we\u2019re in the middle of,\u201d Altman said during the livestream. \u201cI think it\u2019s much more useful to say our intention, our goal, is by March of 2028, to have a true automated AI researcher and define what that means than it is to sort of try to satisfy everyone with a definition of AGI.\u201d But there\u2019s at least one party OpenAI is going to have to actually satisfy with that kind of definition: Microsoft. And billions of dollars are on the line.<\/p>\n Follow topics and authors from this story to see more like this in your personalized homepage feed and to receive email updates.Hayden FieldClose Posts from this author will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed.<\/p>\n FollowFollow<\/p>\n See All by Hayden Field<\/a><\/p>\n AICloseAI<\/p>\n Posts from this topic will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed.<\/p>\n FollowFollow<\/p>\n See All AI<\/a><\/p>\n MicrosoftCloseMicrosoft<\/p>\n Posts from this topic will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed.<\/p>\n FollowFollow<\/p>\n See All Microsoft<\/a><\/p>\n OpenAICloseOpenAI<\/p>\n Posts from this topic will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed.<\/p>\n FollowFollow<\/p>\n![\"Hayden](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/1761842474_931_HAYDEN_BLURPLE.jpg\"\/)
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