{"id":260634,"date":"2025-11-03T22:43:09","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T22:43:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/260634\/"},"modified":"2025-11-03T22:43:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T22:43:09","slug":"rba-interest-rates-timeline-what-economists-are-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/260634\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA interest rates timeline: What economists are forecasting"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa size-full wp-post-1075536 wp-image-1075534\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1075534\" data-capiid=\"01dd34888a87e4aaa364971349789a1d\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 1280 720&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"ESTIMATES\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-1075534\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michele Bullock. Picture: Martin Ollman<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Australian homeowners are staring down a bleak Christmas as the RBA looks poised to keep the cash rate on hold at its upcoming board meeting today, but one expert has flagged the possibility of a shock rate hike.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">The consensus from economists and banks is that high inflation will scupper any chance of another interest rate cut and many are now predicting a new cut, if it comes at all, will occur over February.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">But property economist Andrew Wilson said the argument for the RBA to \u201ctake back\u201d one of this year\u2019s 0.25 per cent interest rate cuts could grow stronger if electricity prices continued to soar.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Trimmed mean inflation, which the RBA views as the most accurate measure, was 3.2 per cent over the year to September, above the RBA target band of 2-3 per cent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said the inflation uptick meant a Melbourne Cup Day rate cut was improbable, but a weakening jobs market also kept the door open for a cut in a few months\u2019 time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">MORE: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/revealed-what-average-aussie-home-is-now-worth-after-price-surge\/?campaignType=external&amp;campaignChannel=syndication&amp;campaignName=ncacont&amp;campaignContent=&amp;campaignSource=daily_telegraph&amp;campaignPlacement=article\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Worst RBA fears realised after Aus home prices go ballistic<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa size-full wp-post-1075536 wp-image-1075531\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1075531\" data-capiid=\"2c9c3f814a72628e7dbadaa793367670\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 1280 720&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"The Daily Telegraph Saturday 15 February 2025&#10;Hot Auction - Woollahra &#10;Picture Thomas Lisson\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-1075531\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Home buyer demand has been rising since rates were cut. Picture Thomas Lisson<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cThe high reading for trimmed mean inflation will keep the RBA on hold in November, but (we) still expect high unemployment and slower inflation to drive a cut next year,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Geoffrey Kingston, professor at the Macquarie University Business School\u2019s department of economics, said another cut was still on the cards but the end of the rate cutting cycle was now in view.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201c(The RBA\u2019s) initial response to emerging stagflation will probably be to keep rates on hold,\u201d he said. \u201cAround the middle of next year there will be a cut in response to high unemployment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cAround the end of next year, however, we may see the beginning of another tightening cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">MORE: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/sydney-couple-double-borrowing-power-after-getting-low-balled-by-former-bank\/?campaignType=external&amp;campaignChannel=syndication&amp;campaignName=ncacont&amp;campaignContent=&amp;campaignSource=daily_telegraph&amp;campaignPlacement=article\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Bank\u2019s brutal reaction to couple\u2019s loan plea<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa size-full wp-post-1075536 wp-image-1075532\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1075532\" data-capiid=\"dfebe5ca86c33d82219c9e041215148c\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 1280 720&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-1075532\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said higher inflation meant a November rate cut was unlikely.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">A Finder.com.au survey of 35 economists and property experts revealed all but five expected the RBA to hold rates at its Melbourne Cup Day board meeting.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">A third of the economists polled predicted a cut in February, while two thirds predicted a cut at some point between February and May.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Some families may struggle to wait till next year. A recent survey of household spending revealed mortgage stress levels have been steadily rising in some states despite previous interest rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Part of the reason is that other living costs have surged and the relief offered by this year\u2019s three rounds of rate cuts was insufficient to make up for higher electricity, groceries and insurance costs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">The surveys from research group Digital Finance Analytics showed the biggest spikes in NSW and WA. Some 51.2 per cent of NSW property owners were in \u201cmortgage stress\u201d \u2013 spending an unsustainable amount of their income on repayments.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">This was up from the 49.1 per cent reported to be in mortgage stress at the start of the year \u2013 before this year\u2019s three cuts. The numbers were close to identical in WA.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Credit reporting agency Illion also revealed that families were increasingly turning to credit cards and other forms of personal loans to make up for shortfalls in their incomes.<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa size-full wp-post-1075536 wp-image-1075533\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1075533\" data-capiid=\"dd6043b364cafc14b8a27877a612f6cd\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 1280 720&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"The Daily Telegraph Saturday 15 February 2025&#10;Hot Auction - Woollahra &#10;Picture Thomas Lisson\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-1075533\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Rate cuts have coincided with a shortage of homes for sale and rising prices, which have made it harder for new buyers to enter the market. Picture Thomas Lisson<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Digital Finance Analytics data scientist Martin North observed a growing split in the fortunes of homeowners, with most struggling, but others \u201cwith plenty of cash flow\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cWe see a split between the two cohorts,\u201d he said, noting interest rate cuts had also fuelled steep rises in the amount of equity held by some homeowners.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">PropTrack data showed the average value of detached Sydney houses ballooned by $120,000 over the past year, with the average value of houses in some eastern suburbs growing by double that.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Sydney homeowner Mark Lawrenson recently refinanced his home loan to save money and said a rate cut would have helped.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cWe are reasonably cautious with our finances so we are always careful not to overextend ourselves,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cWe of course would prefer for rates to come down \u2026 It\u2019s always an expensive period coming up.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Their mortgage broker Richard Brown of Mortgage Choice-Epping said banks were offering good deals for refinancers and many homeowners could get relief by negotiating a new rate with banks before an RBA move.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u2013 With reporting by Kaylee Cranley<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michele Bullock. Picture: Martin Ollman Australian homeowners are staring down a&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":260635,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-260634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/260634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=260634"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/260634\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/260635"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=260634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=260634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=260634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}