Mr Burgess declined to name the countries and officials and MPs who have a fair idea of that shortlist are not saying much either but an examination of recent actions by some states offers clues as to who might fit that description.<\/p>\n
Iran<\/p>\n
If you were going to guess which nation was most likely to be on the director-general’s list, Iran is at the top.<\/p>\n
Tehran has a long history of clandestine violence and espionage overseas.<\/p>\n
Last year multiple Western governments said Iranian intelligence agencies were behind multiple plots<\/a> to “kill, kidnap, and harass people in Europe and North America”.<\/p>\n Foreign interference in Australia<\/a><\/p>\n In a speech to the National Security College at the Australian National University, Clare O’Neil reveals ASIO disrupted a foreign government operation to target dual citizen political dissidents, as she warns the government will name countries behind interference campaigns.<\/p>\n In August the government kicked out Iran’s ambassador after ASIO said it had uncovered evidence that Iran was behind at least two antisemitic attacks in Australia.<\/p>\n Iranian community groups in Australia who are opposed to Tehran have also accused the government of intimidating and monitoring them \u2014 while last year the then Home Affairs minister said that ASIO had “disrupted” community surveillance by the Iranian regime.<\/p>\n In other words, there is a clear pattern of behaviour which suggests that Iran could well be one of the countries which are both “willing and capable” of contemplating a plot like this.<\/p>\n Russia<\/p>\n Russia is another country which has form: Vladimir Putin’s regime has conducted multiple assassinations of critics, dissidents and political opponents overseas.<\/p>\n Russia role in Litveinenko murder<\/a><\/p>\n The European Court of Human Rights finds\u00a0Russia responsible for the poisoning murder of former KGB officer\u00a0Alexander Litvinenko.<\/p>\n Just think of Alexander Litvinenko, who was poisoned with polonium in London in 2006, or the former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal who survived a poisoning with the nerve agent Novichok years later.<\/p>\n Russia is also deeply hostile to Australia, which has been a stalwart supporter of Ukraine in the wake of Putin’s invasion and has sent military equipment to Kyiv to help it resist.<\/p>\n The main question is whether Moscow would prioritise any targets in Australia when its security services are already so busy in multiple other countries across the West.<\/p>\n Former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia Skripal have recovered from an attempted assassination. (AP: Misha Japaridze (L) \/ Facebook: Yulia Skripal (R))<\/p>\n In other words, Russia is certainly “capable.” But is it “willing” as well?<\/p>\n Matthew Sussex from the Australian National University says while Russian regime critics in Australia have had to deal with online threats and intimidation, it is difficult to say whether Moscow would want to plough the time and energy into an assassination here.<\/p>\n “Russia certainly has the wherewithal to carry this out, including through proxies,” he said.<\/p>\n “But it’s not clear if they’d regard Australia as being sufficiently important to make such a demonstration.”India<\/p>\n India might seem like a strange country to include in this list.<\/p>\n Former Indian intelligence official charged over failed murder plot of Sikh separatist <\/a><\/p>\n The US has charged a former Indian spy for allegedly planning assassination of a Sikh separatist and Indian critic in New York City. Washington has alleged that Indian agents were behind the plot against dual US-Canadian citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Unlike the two countries above, India is not hostile to Australia. Far from it \u2014 it is an increasingly vital strategic partner, and the relationship has blossomed over the last two decades.<\/p>\n But India also has form when it comes to targeting separatists overseas \u2014 including in Western countries \u2014 which could fit Mr Burgess’s description of foreign nations trying to hit “dissidents”.<\/p>\n Both Canada and the United States have accused India’s intelligence services <\/a>of involvement in plots to kill Sikhs who are part of the Khalistan movement \u2014 some of whom the Indian government has labelled as terrorists.<\/p>\n That does not mean India is necessarily one of the three countries identified by Mr Burgess.<\/p>\n For a start, the Khalistan movement in Australia is not nearly as large or as well-organised as it is in Canada or other Western countries, which means Indian agencies would be less likely to target it here.<\/p>\n The Khalistan movement is more organised in Canada and other western countries than in Australia. (AP: Alberto Pezzali)<\/p>\n The fact the US and Canada have publicly pointed the finger at India’s intelligence agencies \u2014 and pursued its agents through the courts \u2014 might also make New Delhi much less likely to cross this particular red line again.<\/p>\n Ian Hall from Griffith University says while the US and Canada cases mean India certainly “isn’t out of the frame” when it comes to Mr Burgess’s list, he is “not confident” it is one of the three nations.<\/p>\n “My gut feeling is that the warning issued to India (by Western countries) about the alleged assassination was probably heard, and some sort of deterrence was probably established,” he said.<\/p>\n “And while India remains concerned about Khalistan activism, it also hasn’t been as prominent an issue recently.”<\/p>\n China<\/p>\n It is not impossible, but experts say it is unlikely China is one of the three nations on the list.<\/p>\n My life as a Chinese spy: A secret agent tells all<\/a><\/p>\n A Chinese spy who is now on Australian soil has revealed his incredible story to Four Corners.<\/p>\n Beijing presents a formidable intelligence threat to Australia, and it has monitored and intimidated diaspora and dissident groups in Australia \u2014 not long ago the police charged a Chinese national <\/a>with foreign interference, alleging that she was covertly gathering information on a Buddhist group banned in China.<\/p>\n Hong Kong activists and Chinese Communist Party critics in Australia have also been targeted by Beijing<\/a>, with some saying they have faced an avalanche of threats, particularly at politically sensitive moments.<\/p>\n But while Beijing has often used coercion or kidnapping to get people to return to China, it does not have a track record of conducting targeted assassinations overseas.<\/p>\n That means other countries are more likely to be at the top of the list.<\/p>\n Israel<\/p>\n Israel is also unlikely to be one of the three nations Mr Burgess nominated.<\/p>\n Israel certainly has a long record<\/a> of targeting its enemies overseas, conducting large numbers of assassinations over multiple decades \u2014 including in Western nations.<\/p>\n More recently it has orchestrated operations of sometimes jaw-dropping audacity to kill Hamas<\/a> and Hezbollah operatives in the region and in Iran.<\/p>\n Hezbollah blames Israel after pager explosions \u2014 as it happened<\/a><\/p>\n Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has vowed “punishment” against Israel over a wave of pager detonations in the country’s south and east that killed at least 12 people.<\/p>\n Australia has been dragged into some of these operations, indirectly \u2014 for example in 2010 Australia expelled an Israeli diplomat after it concluded Israel forged four Australian passports<\/a> in its plot to kill a Hamas operative in Dubai.<\/p>\n But there is zero evidence that Australia is currently harbouring anyone who Israel might view as an enemy who it might want to target.<\/p>\n Mr Burgess’s descriptions of foreign governments targeting “dissidents” here also simply doesn’t fit the bill with Israel.<\/p>\n Rwanda, Cambodia and North Korea<\/p>\n These three nations might not immediately come to mind when you think about possible political assassinations in Australia, but they should not be dismissed out of hand.<\/p>\n The current governments in both Rwanda and Cambodia have a long track record <\/a>of intimidating and monitoring critics and political opponents within diaspora communities in Australia.<\/p>\n Spies in our suburbs<\/a><\/p>\n A foreign minister’s trip, after revelations alleged African axe murderers were secretly living in Australia, triggers the unearthing of an alleged shadowy network of spies and their efforts to silence dissent.<\/p>\n Several opponents of the current government in Rwanda have also disappeared<\/a> in mysterious circumstances overseas \u2014 although only in African nations.<\/p>\n With both Rwanda and Cambodia, it is probably a question of capability as well as intent: would the governments have the ability to organise a hit on an opponent in a country like Australia?<\/p>\n With North Korea it is probably not a question of capability, but more of intent.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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