{"id":266246,"date":"2025-11-06T09:51:12","date_gmt":"2025-11-06T09:51:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/266246\/"},"modified":"2025-11-06T09:51:12","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T09:51:12","slug":"minack-exclusive-forget-ai-asx-is-the-raging-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/266246\/","title":{"rendered":"Minack exclusive: Forget AI. ASX is the raging bubble"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Exclusively from Gerard Minack.<\/p>\n<p>Australia remains stuck in a macro rut as anaemic investment spending is stretched by a fast growing population. The result is sluggish capital-to-labour growth and \u2013 remarkably \u2013 falling labour productivity. The implication is that real wages cannot rise without creating inflation pressures. Macro stagnation has gone together with falling corporate profits: ASX200 forecast EPS has fallen for three years and is 15% below its October 2022 peak. Over the same period the index is up 40%. The market is forecast to deliver low single digit EPS on a near-record valuation. Not a great buy.<\/p>\n<p>Population growth without matching investment leads to crowded roads, schools and hospitals; housing shortages; and less productive workers. Exhibit 1 shows the investment spending required to grow Australia\u2019s capital stock in line with its population growth. Australia should have invested around 5% of GDP per year to keep pace with the fast population growth of the past 20 years.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1.png\" width=\"442\" height=\"242\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Exclusively from Gerard Minack. Australia remains stuck in a macro rut as anaemic investment spending is stretched by&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":109958,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[256,254,255,64,63,105],"class_list":["post-266246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-artificial-intelligence","tag-ai","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-artificialintelligence","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=266246"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266246\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109958"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=266246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=266246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=266246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}