Here\u2019s how I would price each player, with some help from AFP Analytics\u2019 projections over at Cap Wages.<\/p>\n
Artemi Panarin<\/p>\n
Top comps: Henrik Zetterberg, Sidney Crosby, Mari\u00e1n Hossa, Martin St. Louis, Patrick Kane<\/p>\n Like a lot of Rangers, Panarin is off to a really slow start offensively with just seven points in 14 games. His underlying numbers still look great, and it\u2019s nice to see he\u2019s bought in defensively along with the rest of the team. He still projects as an elite winger.<\/p>\n For how long is the question, though, as Panarin is eyeing a lot of term. Over the next four years, he looks to be worth his current price tag (and more than AFP\u2019s $10.4 million), but anything longer drops his value accordingly. In Year 5, he drops to $9.2 million, in Year 6, it\u2019s $7.5 million and anything more probably shouldn\u2019t be entertained.<\/p>\n Panarin has some great comps that aged really well into their late 30s, which limits some risk, but anything above his current $11.6 million should be a no-go.<\/p>\n Adrian Kempe<\/p>\n Top comps: Logan Couture, Brock Nelson, Max Pacioretty, Tomas Hertl, Blake Wheeler<\/p>\n Kempe seems to only get better every year and looks like the kind of player that can drive percentages. In each of his last four seasons, his goals rate has been at least seven percentage points clear of his expected goals rate. He gets results and puts numbers on the board.<\/p>\n Still, a drop to 45 percent xG this season is a bit of a red flag for a player entering his 30s whose game relies a lot on speed. According to NHL Edge, Kempe\u2019s top speed has dropped from 94th percentile last year to 69th this season, and his 20 mph bursts per game rate has dropped from 3.3 to 2.1.<\/p>\n Kempe is a great player, but not an elite one. Considering Connor went for $12 million and Necas went for $11.5 million, anything above $11 million is a tough sell. He\u2019s not at that level.<\/p>\n Alex Tuch<\/p>\n Top comps: Tomas Hertl, Logan Couture, Brock Nelson, Andrew Ladd, Ryan Kesler<\/p>\n The rumors surrounding Tuch\u2019s next deal are the main reason I wanted to look into the top of next year\u2019s free agent class. They\u2019re \u2026 uhh \u2026 a little much. AFP has him at $8.5 million, while I think he\u2019s closer to $7.5 million \u2014 a lower mark that has a lot to do with age. Any deal paying Tuch over the rumored $10 million ask would be immediately onerous.<\/p>\n Tuch is a tremendous player who is off to a great start. He has a history of scoring goals and driving play \u2014 a guy any team would be lucky to have. But he\u2019s not elite. While it\u2019s true $10 million is in line to become average first-liner money during the life of a long-term deal, it\u2019s unlikely Tuch continues to play at that level for the majority of his next contract. Tuch likely declines faster than the market rises (and some of his best comps have a scary trajectory), projecting to land in second-line territory by Year 3 of any long-term deal.<\/p>\n With any projection, it\u2019s the range of outcomes that\u2019s most important. It\u2019s possible Tuch ages gracefully and earns his keep. But every million bucks over the average forecast lowers the odds of a good deal. For Tuch, a $10 million deal provides positive value 31 percent of the time and every $500,000 above that decreases the odds by roughly five percentage points. For reference, Jeff Skinner\u2019s deal came in at 21 percent in a world where the salary cap didn\u2019t go flat, meaning an $11 million deal for Tuch would be a similar overpay.<\/p>\n Really, it\u2019s a question of risk appetite. Teams have much more cap room going forward to add risky deals to their roster portfolio, especially if they\u2019re able to make it up elsewhere. But that doesn\u2019t necessarily mean bending the knee for a bad deal.<\/p>\n Buffalo is in a tough spot, given the franchise\u2019s current lack of desirability after over a decade of ineptitude. Keeping talent should be the priority, but there\u2019s a limit to that \u2014 a walk-away price. To keep Tuch, the Sabres are going to have to overpay, but $10 million should be a hard line given where the current market is.<\/p>\n 16 stats<\/p>\n 1. Doan is the real deal<\/p>\n In the summer, I wrote a piece that looked at which teams improved the most<\/a> during the offseason. The Sabres were ranked controversially high, a product of the JJ Peterka trade that landed them Josh Doan and Michael Kesselring. The argument: Buffalo\u2019s depth would be greatly improved with two under-the-radar pieces. The jury is still out on Kesselring, who has only suited up for four games so far, but to this point, Doan has more than delivered.<\/p>\n Doan\u2019s plus-2.0 Net Rating leads all Sabres forwards at the moment, a product of scoring four goals and nine points in 13 games and leading the team with a 59.3 percent xG. That\u2019s well above the next best Sabres forward (Tuch at 54 percent). The latter mark shouldn\u2019t be a surprise either, given Doan posted a 59.7 percent xG last year in Utah.<\/p>\n The next step is finding more ice time for Doan. Despite dominating possession and being second in points per 60 (2.37) and shots per 60 at five-on-five (10.3), Doan currently has Buffalo\u2019s eighth-highest ice time among forwards at five-on-five. If the Sabres are serious about finally getting to the playoffs, that usage needs to change.<\/p>\n 2. Do the Leafs low-key miss Holmberg?<\/p>\n Toronto has a lot of bodies in the bottom six, so \u201cmiss\u201d might be the wrong word for Pontus Holmberg. But he might\u2019ve been the wrong guy to give up on, considering his play in Tampa Bay so far. The Lightning are giving up just 1.72 xGA per 60 and 0.39 GA per 60 with Holmberg on the ice this year, and he\u2019s not playing easy minutes either. The fourth line, where Holmberg plays with Yanni Gourde, is actually facing similar levels of offensive competition as Tampa Bay\u2019s first line.<\/p>\n A quality fourth line can really help ease the burden for a scoring line, and Holmberg\u2019s presence looks to be providing that. His plus-1.8 Defensive Rating \u2014 which accounts for his low minute usage and moderate quality of competition \u2014 is among the league\u2019s best. It would also lead the Leafs.<\/p>\n 3. Zadorov, defensive rock star<\/p>\n It always felt like Nikita Zadorov\u2019s eye test didn\u2019t really match his defensive results, but that\u2019s changed so far this year. Through 15 games, his plus-2.8 Defensive Rating ranks third in the league behind Vladislav Gavrikov and Brayden McNabb. Zadorov is taking on the toughest assignments on the Bruins, yet allows just 2.14 xGA per 60. The next closest regular, Andrew Peeke, is at 3.02. That\u2019s one of the largest discrepancies in the league.<\/p>\n 4. Demidov is super-charging Montreal\u2019s power play<\/p>\n Five games ago, the Canadiens (finally) added their rookie sensation to the top power-play unit, a move that created instantly incredible dividends. In just 12:28 minutes of time together, the team\u2019s top power play with Ivan Demidov has already scored six goals. For those doing the math at home, that\u2019s an astounding 28.8 goals per 60.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a small sample and the five-man unit is shooting 60 percent (!) from the field, but it\u2019s still an electric opening salvo from a power play that looks set to terrorize the league for the next decade.<\/p>\n 5. Suzuki and the Selke penalty-killing debate<\/p>\n After the first month of the season, Nick Suzuki feels like the obvious Selke front-runner. His plus-2.3 Defensive Rating leads all forwards and the Canadiens are giving up just 1.85 xGA per 60 and 0.92 GA per 60 in his minutes. That\u2019s elite work in tough minutes. But there\u2019s a catch to Suzuki\u2019s Selke bid: He\u2019s averaging just 19 seconds of penalty-kill time this season.<\/p>\n In the salary cap era, there have only been three instances where a Selke finalist averaged less than a minute on the penalty kill per game. Those instances: Pavel Datsyuk, who won in 2009-10 (41 seconds), Datsyuk in 2010-11 (40 seconds) and Auston Matthews in 2023-24 (43 seconds).<\/p>\n Should it matter? Probably not, especially with strong enough numbers at five-on-five. But it has definitely mattered in the past. Unless Montreal starts using him more while short-handed, a Suzuki Selke would be an exception to the rule.<\/p>\n 6. Atop the early Selke leaderboard \u2026 McDavid?<\/p>\n It\u2019s too early to be talking about the NHL\u2019s awards to begin with, especially when it comes to defensive contributions. But small samples can make it fun.<\/p>\n Case in point, the current front-runner based on Defensive Rating: Connor McDavid. His plus-2.0 is lower than Suzuki\u2019s, but he\u2019s the leader based on the usual parameters I work with (top-line ice time, shutdown minutes and at least one minute on the penalty kill per game).<\/p>\n With McDavid on the ice, the Oilers are allowing just 2.15 xGA per 60, which is 0.37 better than the team average. The latter is among the best marks in the league, especially against tough competition \u2014 Suzuki is at 0.39, for the record \u2014 and McDavid is also managing that while playing nearly one full minute more per game at five-on-five than the next highest forward. There\u2019s defensive value in eating minutes and slowing down a high-pace environment, both of which Defensive Rating accounts for.<\/p>\n Whether McDavid should be slowing things down, though, is up for debate. As his defensive metrics go up, his offensive ones have dropped. His five-on-five rate of points per 60 is down to 1.37 and the Oilers are weirdly struggling to score with him on the ice, with just 2.11 goals per 60.<\/p>\n 7. Theodore the shutdown defenseman<\/p>\n One more note on individual defense for Vegas\u2019 No. 1 defenseman. Shea Theodore actually lands just behind Zadorov at plus-2.7 as his pair with McNabb has been lights-out. Together, they\u2019ve allowed just 2.05 xGA per 60 and 1.22 GA per 60.<\/p>\n In the past, there have been some concerns about Theodore\u2019s ability to handle tough matchups. Alex Pietrangelo was always the guy for Vegas, but that started to shift last season to a more balanced approach in the top four. This year, it\u2019s been Theodore\u2019s pair taking on some of the league\u2019s toughest minutes \u2014 and they\u2019ve aced that assignment.<\/p>\n 8. Vegas\u2019 Stone-less power play update<\/p>\n In the last edition of 16 stats, I mentioned how pivotal Mark Stone was to the team\u2019s power play thanks to a specific set play with Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev. The Golden Knights have now played six games without Stone and the difference in their power play with and without is illuminating.<\/p>\n With Stone Without Stone \n Cutter Gauthier has 10 goals in 12 games for the Ducks. (Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images)<\/p>\n 9. Gauthier is letting it rip<\/p>\n Offensively, the Ducks are flying right now and Gauthier has been one of the leaders in that regard with 10 goals in 12 games. The biggest takeaway from that is just how shot-happy Gauthier has been with 58 shots in 12 games, or 4.83 per game. That leads the league and is about half a shot more per game than Nathan MacKinnon in second. Even more impressive is that Gauthier only plays 18 minutes per night, almost four less than MacKinnon. On a per-60 basis, Gauthier\u2019s 16.1 is miles ahead of anyone else and isn\u2019t far off from an analytics-era record: Alex Ovechkin\u2019s 17.4 shots per 60 in 2008-09.<\/p>\n 10. Ducks\u2019 defense still a concern<\/p>\n Defensively, I\u2019m still worried about the Ducks. Their offense is great, but Anaheim is still giving up a lot of chances against. The Ducks\u2019 3.49 xGA per 60 is the worst mark in the league, 0.3 higher than Pittsburgh and 0.49 higher than last year\u2019s mark.<\/p>\n Embracing high-event hockey is probably the best course forward for such a young and exciting team, especially with an elite goalie such as Luk\u00e1\u0161 Dost\u00e1l in net. But there\u2019s still a lot that needs to be cleaned up without the puck for long-term sustainability.<\/p>\n 11. San Jose\u2019s top power play with and without Klingberg<\/p>\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-05-at-2.43.46\u202fPM.png\")
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TOI: 29.7 minutes
GF\/60: 17.5
xGF\/60: 12.6<\/p>\n
TOI: 31.8 minutes
GF\/60: 3.5
xGF\/60: 5.7<\/p>\n![\"Cutter](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/USATSI_27470612-scaled-e1762390753516.jpg\")
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