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So how will our second match go? Well, we know Gauff\u2019s issues: she\u2019s remodelling her serve while competing, and has an unreliable forehand but, on the other hand knows she can beat Sabalenka on the big occasion, having diddled her in the final at Roland Garros.<\/p>\n
So Sabalenka will target her in those areas having played brilliantly in overcoming Pegula the other day; real talk, it\u2019s hard to look past her. But Gauff is amazing at finding a way and will, I think, look to keep her opponent moving, perhaps pulling her into the net, and hoping she\u2019s a bit off her best. I\u2019ll level with you, I can\u2019t really see a way.<\/p>\n
Share<\/a><\/p>\n That was really impressive from Pegula and, of all those in the competition, she and Rybakina are playing nearest to their best. She\u2019s a threat here, and if she could win the thing, that\u2019d be a massive statement as regards next season.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n If Sabakenka wins, she wins the group with 3-0; if Gauff wins in two, she wins the group and Pegula takes second; if Gauff wins in three, we\u2019ll be counting up the games.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n And next for us: Aryna Sabalenka<\/a> v Coco Gauff. Don\u2019t mind if we do!<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Pegula is glad to get a win in straights \u201cfor the first time in months,\u201d saying she served well and doesn\u2019t have many negative notes for herself. She thinks she\u2019s through, and now needs to focus on who\u2019s next \u2013 she\u2019ll be ready.<\/p>\n As ever, she\u2019s asked to compliment the fans \u2013 slightly odd given\u2019t there aren\u2019t many of them and haven\u2019t been all week \u2013 and dutifully does that, saying she hopes the game can grow in the Gulf area. Next for her, probably: Rybakina or Anisimova.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a010.25 EST<\/p>\n Jessica Pegula beats Jasmine Paolini 6-2 6-3<\/p>\n She\u2019s not quite in the last four but she\u2019s close \u2013 details to follow \u2013 after giving Paolini a thorough beating, breaking her serve four times and dominating the match via forehand from start to finish,<\/p>\n Jessica Pegula eases to victory over Jasmine Paolini in straight sets. Photograph: Hamad I Mohammed\/ReutersShare<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a010.25 EST<\/p>\n Paolini saves it, but Pegula quickly forces another, putting away a volley at net\u2026<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Paolini enjoys a net-cord winner, apologising whole laughing; that\u2019s about the size of the convention. At which point my internet drops out \u2013 gah! \u2013 returning in time for me to see Pegula has match point at 6-2 5-3 30-40.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a010.17 EST<\/p>\n Well, she makes 15-30, thanks in part to a double, but can\u2019t do enough when a putaway at net is hit straight at her. And from there, Pegula closes out, sealing the hold with an ace; at 6-2 4-2, she\u2019s two games away; as per the below, if she wins in straights, the only way she doesn\u2019t make the last four is if Gauff beats Sabalenka in three and she\u2019s won the fewest games of the three which, given the 6-2 set earlier, seems unlikely.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n It would\u2019ve been easy for Paolini to scratch from this match, ill, tired and out. But I\u2019m sure she\u2019s spent most of her career doubting she\u2019d ever get to play this tournament and in any event, she\u2019s not made like that; it\u2019s no surprise that she cruises to a straightforward hold. At 2-6 2-3, can she find a way to get the break-back?<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n In comms, Tim was saying if Madison keys can win a slam, so too can Pegula, and while he probably knows more about tennis than me, that is not mathematics. What Keys has that Pegula doesn\u2019t is weapons-grade weapons, her serve and groundstrokes giving her a higher ceiling and the ability to beat the best on the big occasion. I\u2019m not saying Pegula can\u2019t, though I\u2019d be surprised, just that Keys doing so isn\u2019t relevant \u2013 Wozniacki is a better comparator, and she got there, eventually \u2013 but the standard is higher now. Meantime a love hold means the American leads 6-2 3-1.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n It might just be that Pegula is \u2013 strangely for a sportsperson \u2013 hitting her peak at 31. Se\u2019s someone I\u2019ve never thought could beat the top players in majors, but she\u2019s doing a much better job of finding a way to compete when physically she\u2019s overmatched, principally because of her forehand. And, as I type, she makes 0-40 \u2026 then Paolini fights back to deuce, before a forehand swatted wide hands over advantage \u2026 and a double donates the break. That\u2019s got to be annoying, and it feels like the end isn\u2019t far away; Pegula leads 6-2 2-1.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Pegula had a bad time playing this event last year, losing twice then hurting her knee, but she\u2019s a different player now and holds easily for 6-2 1-1.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n An inside-out backhand on to the line gives Pegula 15-all on the Paolini serve and a double follows, bringing with it pressure. She responds well enough, though, making 40-30, but then a brutal forehand, pasted inside-out on to the line, makes deuce. And from there, Pegula thwacks merrily from the back to make advantage \u2026 then overhits to restore deuce. Paolini, though, is – despite illness, tiredness and elimination \u2013 doing everything she can to make a match of this and closes out a hold a less intense competitor might\u2019ve abandoned. Pegula leads 6-2 0-1.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Jessica Pegula wins the first set against Jasmine Paolini 6-2<\/p>\n Pegula looks really confident out there \u2013 she has all week, perhaps more so than I\u2019ve ever seen her against the best players. She quickly makes 40-0 but then, offering a tame second serve, she allows Paolini to run around her forehand and smite a winner down the line. No matter: a forehand error follows, and that\u2019s seals a dominant first set for the in-form American.<\/p>\n Jessica Pegula easily takes the opening set. Photograph: Fatima Shbair\/APShare<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a010.20 EST<\/p>\n Sara Errani, Paolini\u2019s doubles partner, is courtside, and I love watching those two compete \u2013 they have a right laugh, as well they might having won Olympic gold and this year\u2019s French Open together. Paolini holds to 30, meaning at 5-2, Pegula will shortly serve for the first set.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n It\u2019s so interesting when older players suddenly get good \u2013 it\u2019s happened over the last couple of years with Zhang Anda in snooker \u2013 and Paolini is another. One minute she\u2019s a doubles specialist then, last year, she makes two grand slam finals, and has been knocking about at the top of the game ever since. What changed? I don\u2019t think anyone knows. But back to the now, she makes 0-30, and though Pegula\u2019s forehand \u2013 the definitive shot of the match, so far \u2013 makes her another winner, Paolini then makes 30-40. She can\u2019t though, convert the break point, then overhits a backhand before netting a forehand, and that\u2019s five games in a row for Pegula, who leads 5-1 in the first.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Again, Pegula wins the first point on Paolini\u2019s serve, then makes 0-30; a buggy-whip forehand winner quickly halves the arrears and we wind up at 30-all. From there, though, Pegula\u2019s forehand takes over, a winner followed by one which incites her opponent to go long. The American leads 4-1 with a double break, and this match is only going one way.<\/p>\n Jasmine Paolini just can\u2019t compete in this opening set. Photograph: Fatima Shbair\/APShare<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a009.43 EST<\/p>\n Paolini makes 0-15 but then overhits a forehand, and I wonder if Pegula\u2019s greater consistency off the ground will be decisive here. A service winner gives her 40-15, she closes out, and at 3-1 endorses her break.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Does anyone toss the ball higher than Paolini? It\u2019s funny as she\u2019s got more time than most before it comes down, and less arm to get above it, but anyroad, she finds herself down 30-40 and, as we thought she might, hits down the middle; Pegula goes for the winner and hits wide. But on advantage, she clips the top of the net, and taking advantage of the additional time this allows as the ball sits up, Pegula punishes a winner down the line, then rushes through deuce by attacking Paolini\u2019s forehand, securing the break and a 2-1 lead.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Pegula responds with an emphatic love hold, her forehand down the line in excellent order. She really fancies this, you can tell, and of the three contesting the two semi-final places, she\u2019s the one you\u2019d bet on to make it.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Paolini nets to go down 0-15 but soon makes 30-15, and a backhand swiped wide gives her game point. And though a decent return incites her to go wide, a decent first serve serve secures the hold. \u201cIt\u2019s always good to get the first game under your belt,\u201d revelates Tim Henman.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Ready \u2026 play.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Pegula wins the toss and opts to receive. She beat Coco Gauff<\/a> earlier in the week and against Sabalenka, was up a break in the third; Paolini has twice been splattered in straights.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Paolini, of course, has been ill this week, but she looks happy enough on court.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n My guess is that Paolini will try to keep Pegula moving, as she has the athletic advantage, while trying to hit winners; I wonder if Pegula will hit down the middle to deny angle, looking to prolong the rallies and incite the error.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Out come our players; Paolini\u2019s mascot is about her height.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n So how is our first match going to go? Well, Pegula is in terrific nick, giving Sabalenka all she could handle on Tuesday, while Paolini has looked knackered in being eliminated from both singles and doubles. So chances are Pegula, who is playing to qualify, does enough, but her lack of a definitive weapon means she\u2019ll always be beatable when facing top players, and Paolini is definitely one of those.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Babos\/Stefani win so, as far as I can fathom, they qualify for the last four along with Siniakova\/Townsend.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n We\u2019ve a match tiebreaker going on in today\u2019s first doubles match; the pairs are Dabrowski\/Routliffe and Babos\/Stefani.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a008.47 EST<\/p>\n Preamble<\/p>\n Greetings all and welcome to your afternoon fun and joy, also known as the final round of group matches in the 2025 WTA Tour Finals.<\/p>\n