I\u2019ve spent an interesting few weeks in Australia meeting figures from across the right of politics. I also spoke with dozens of everyday Australians about their views on politics and the future of the country. I can\u2019t claim to be an expert on Australian politics, and I was very much in learning mode, but after my time there, I couldn\u2019t help forming a few impressions about the current political mood.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s clearly a real nervousness within the Liberal-National Coalition about what\u2019s happening elsewhere in the world, particularly in the UK with the rise of Reform UK. In fact, it was reported in The Spectator (UK edition) only last week that a number of former Australian politicians are currently in Britain trying to help the Conservative Party in its battle for survival. They\u2019re acutely aware of the ramifications for the Liberal-National Coalition \u2013 particularly the Liberal Party \u2013 if the Conservatives are effectively replaced by Reform UK on the right of British politics. And they\u2019re right to be.<\/p>\n
A number of figures on the right of the Coalition are keen to take corrective action to ensure they aren\u2019t cannibalised by a populist force in the same way the British Conservatives are. Yet, like their UK counterparts, the Liberal Party seems split down the middle about how to respond to the global right-wing realignment. For every Liberal figure who believes they should prioritise conservative voters, there\u2019s another obsessed with chasing Teal-leaning voters.<\/p>\n
My sense on arrival was that the political forces shaping the West are largely global, and that Australia won\u2019t be immune. I struggle to think of a single major centre-right political party in a Western democracy right now that is securing electoral success by embracing centrism or the mushy middle ground. Voters increasingly want political parties that stand for something and adopt clear positions and avoid trying to split the difference the whole time.<\/p>\n
Many in Australia seem to believe they\u2019ll be spared the political upheavals seen elsewhere \u2013 that their electoral system, political culture, economy and geography will shield them from a Reform UK, a Trump, a Le Pen, or an AfD. I imagine these people know their own country and its politics far better than I do, so I\u2019m not about to lecture them. Still, I\u2019ve always been struck by how, in the UK, even people who\u2019ve spent their whole lives in the country can be strangely detached from how voters actually experience politics and what they\u2019re really thinking. My sense, having just returned from Australia, is that the same complacency exists there too \u2013 and that the global forces now reshaping politics elsewhere will, in time, make themselves felt there as well.<\/p>\n
One Nation have clearly been rising in the polls, roughly doubling their support since the last federal election. That\u2019s notable. So far, much of their growth appears to have come at the expense of the Coalition, but that could change. Some argue that preferential and compulsory voting will stop One Nation in its tracks. I understand the logic, but I remember when people insisted that Britain\u2019s first-past-the-post system made it impossible for a party like Reform UK to break through. Look how that\u2019s going now.<\/p>\n
Others say Australia\u2019s highly urbanised population will make it harder for so-called \u2018populist\u2019 forces to gain traction. Again, I\u2019m not so sure. I was struck by how the Labor Party still seems to hold many blue-collar urban areas \u2013 the sort of \u2018red wall\u2019 seats that fell to Boris Johnson in 2019 and where Reform UK is now surging. Most of these electorates remain Labor strongholds. As the former MP for Ipswich in the UK, I felt compelled to visit Ipswich, Queensland. It felt remarkably similar to Ipswich back home \u2013 yet unlike its British namesake, it\u2019s still firmly Labor territory, with the Coalition unable to gain a foothold. Many would argue that a buoyant One Nation could. It\u2019s worth remembering this was the place Pauline Hanson hails from and where she first won a federal seat in the 1990s, having fallen out with the Liberal Party but still appearing on the ballot under its banner.<\/p>\n
Unlike the UK Conservatives, who largely fell flat when it came to tackling illegal migration, the Coalition government did act decisively during its own small-boats crisis and is generally seen as having stemmed the flow. But on legal migration, the numbers in recent years \u2013 including towards the end of the Coalition\u2019s time in office \u2013 were extremely high. The growing \u2018March for Australia\u2019 movement, protesting against uncontrolled mass migration, reflects a growing unease. The Albanese government\u2019s decision to establish a dedicated visa scheme for people from Gaza has also raised eyebrows \u2013 Australia is virtually unique among Western nations in doing so. Not even the UK has gone that far.<\/p>\n
I recognise the differences between Australia and the UK. But sections of the liberal establishment are entirely wrong to be as complacent as they appear. Many Australians are already noticing how mass migration is changing their country \u2013 and they don\u2019t like it. If the Coalition fails to give those voters a voice, they\u2019ll find another outlet. They can see the way in which established politics has been upended in other countries.<\/p>\n
The Voice referendum, which shocked the liberal establishment, showed there is a majority for a common-sense conservative approach to Australian politics \u2013 a coalition of voters that cuts across class and geography. My instinct, based on the people I met and the mood I sensed, is that this will in time translate into electoral results at state and federal level. And the main driver, as so often, will be mass migration and an elite that seems increasingly detached and complacent.<\/p>\n
Tom Hunt is a former UK MP<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"I\u2019ve spent an interesting few weeks in Australia meeting figures from across the right of politics. I also…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":267813,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[64,63,9616,44],"class_list":{"0":"post-267812","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-australia","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-flat-white","11":"tag-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267812","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=267812"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267812\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/267813"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=267812"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=267812"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=267812"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}