Since the Paris Agreement was signed a decade ago, the projected global temperature increase by the end of the century has declined from a range of 3.7 degrees to 4.8 degrees, to one of 2.6 degrees to 2.8 degrees.<\/p>\n
Alongside that profound practical achievement, the treaty\u2019s goals of holding the temperature increase to an agreed target and doing so by reducing emissions to net zero by 2050 have become accepted as the norm around the world. Mechanisms such as having signatories declare new and more ambitious targets every five years are now in place.<\/p>\n
The first cycle has just concluded, in which Australia committed to a 2035 emission reduction target of cutting greenhouse pollution by 62 to 70 per cent of 2005 levels.<\/p>\n
Not all countries have complied, but almost 75 per cent of global emissions are now covered.<\/p>\n
This year, for the first time in history, the amount of energy the world derived from renewables overtook the amount generated by coal.<\/p>\n
Analysis by the energy think tank Ember<\/a> shows that in the first half of 2025, the combined growth of solar and wind power exceeded global demand growth by 109 per cent. Solar alone met 83 per cent of the increases as coal generation slipped 0.6 per cent.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are seeing the first signs of a crucial turning point,\u201d said Ma\u0142gorzata Wiatros-Motyka, \u200dsenior electricity analyst with Ember, when the analysis was published.<\/p>\n This brings us back to that hopeful chart. The startling explosion of renewables, particularly solar, can be mostly attributed to China\u2019s production, deployment and export of solar cells, which has driven down the price of the technology around the world, and in turn its uptake around the world.<\/p>\n Discussing this energy revolution last year, analyst Michael Liebreich explained to The Economist that in 2004, it took the world a whole year to install a gigawatt of solar-power capacity; in 2010, it took a month; in 2016, a week.<\/p>\n \u201cIn 2023 there were single days which saw a gigawatt of installation worldwide,\u201d The Economist reported. \u201cOver the course of 2024 analysts at BloombergNEF, a data outfit, expect to see 520-655gw of capacity installed.\u201d<\/p>\n This is profoundly good news, not just for the benefits to world\u2019s climate \u2013 and its economy \u2013 of abundant cheap and clean energy, but because it demonstrates that multilateral efforts to tackle climate change can not only have an impact but already are having an impact.<\/p>\n But it is not all good news.<\/p>\n Addressing world leaders before the formal negotiations, United Nations secretary-general Ant\u00f3nio Guterres said bluntly that our actions to date remained too little and too late to avert catastrophe.<\/p>\n \u201cThe hard truth is that we have failed to ensure we remain below 1.5 degrees,\u201d he said. \u201cAfter decades of denial and delay, science now tells us that a temporary overshoot beyond the 1.5 limit \u2013 starting at the latest in the early 2030s \u2013 is inevitable.\u201d<\/p>\n With concerted effort, the world might arrest the warming and drive it down again before the end of the century, but the human cost would be terrible, Gutteres said.<\/p>\n \u201cEven a temporary overshoot will unleash far greater destruction and costs for every nation,\u201d he said. \u201cIt could push ecosystems past catastrophic and irreversible tipping points, expose billions to unliveable conditions, and amplify threats to peace and security.<\/p>\n \u201cEvery fraction of a degree higher means more hunger, more displacement, more economic hardship, and more lives and ecosystems lost.\u201d<\/p>\n According to a UN report on the gap between the necessary reductions and the world\u2019s current trajectory which was published last month, global emissions are expected to fall by about 10 per cent by 2035, compared with 1990 levels. This is the first decline ever forecast by the organisation, but it falls well short of the 60 per cent decline necessary to put us on a target to stabilise warming in line with Paris targets.<\/p>\n Part of the reason for the gap is what the economics writer Ed Conway has called the \u201cevil twin\u201d of the hopeful chart above, which shows that just as the IEA keeps failing to forecast the speed at which China deployed renewables, it also failed to predict how much new coal it would chew up<\/a>.<\/p>\n Finally, it appears that renewables have won, and are not only supplying new energy demand, but displacing coal. Further, China\u2019s export of renewables technology is beginning to spur a green revolution in other emerging mega-markets, such as Pakistan<\/a> and India, where coal\u2019s share of new energy demand is in rapid decline<\/a>.<\/p>\n Loading<\/p>\n This year\u2019s talks will proceed without the diplomatic machine of the United States, which under recent Democratic administrations has served to drive the agenda forward. Instead, the Trump administration is at work unwinding renewables subsidies and tax breaks in the US and driving a fossil fuel expansion.<\/p>\n Australia\u2019s delegation will arrive having so far failed to secure the right to co-host a COP in Australia with its Pacific neighbours due to the determination of Turkey to remain in the race despite broad support for Australia\u2019s bid.<\/p>\n This will not just distract Australia\u2019s Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen from the task at hand; it may set a precedent that could destabilise future talks at a time when climate leaders are urging for co-operation to accelerate the process.<\/p>\n Addressing world leaders last week in Rio, the UN\u2019s chief climate official, Simon Stiell, said the energy revolution had begun, but needed full global co-operation.<\/p>\n \u201cParis is not working fast enough,\u201d he said. \u201cWe have the direction, but we don\u2019t have the speed.\u201d<\/p>\n