between 2000 and 2015, just five times went out in straight sets<\/a>. But since 2016, it\u2019s happened nine times. Therefore, home semi-finalists since 2016 have gone 11-9 \u2014 slightly better than a coin flip.<\/p>\nWhat\u2019s more, no teams between 2000 and 2015 made a grand final from outside the top four. In the 10 seasons since, it\u2019s happened four times (Western Bulldogs 2016 and 2021, GWS 2019 and Brisbane 2024). <\/p>\n
Therefore, teams that scrape into seven or eighth face a much taller task to go all the way. They\u2019ll now need to win five-straight finals \u2014 with potentially five travels \u2014 to salute.<\/p>\n
While sides that finish fifth and sixth are technically unaffected, top four teams get a week off and the prospect of playing a team that\u2019s had no break and played twice already. <\/p>\n
Wildcard round confirmed for 2026 | 00:32<\/p>\n
But could we see more injuries? And a worse finals series?<\/p>\n
The AFL calendar and physical demands of the game are greater than ever before. <\/p>\n
Every club plays 23 home and away games, so there\u2019s now potential for players to play 28 matches in a season. <\/p>\n
That would top 11 Lions that played a maximum 27 games in 2024 as part of their premiership run from outside the top four. <\/p>\n
You can\u2019t help but wonder if this workload uptick could result in more injuries. Particularly given players are going their hardest in September, with many nursing niggles at that time of year. <\/p>\n
Or if teams under more physical duress makes for a worse finals series overall. <\/p>\n
Love or hate the pre-finals bye, one thing it\u2019s ensured is a high quality level of footy, given every side is cherry ripe. <\/p>\n
Could we see a couple of teams limp into semi final or prelim final and get absolutely rolled?<\/p>\n
We might have more engagement for longer, but the penultimate games could be lessened due to sheer fatigue.<\/p>\n
Crows book finals clash against Demons | 00:44<\/p>\n
It makes sense with 19+ teams<\/p>\n
Forget for a moment that the top eight ever existed.<\/p>\n
If you strip things back and think pragmatically, having only eight teams qualify for finals in a 19-team competition \u2014 likely to grow further \u2014 doesn\u2019t make a lot of sense. <\/p>\n
In basically every sports code that involves a post-season, at least half the teams qualify finals. <\/p>\n
The idea of rewarding mediocrity, at least as things stand, is a valid one. <\/p>\n
At least next season, there will technically be more than half \u2014 10 of 18 teams \u2014 play finals. <\/p>\n
So the league could\u2019ve eased into a wildcard round and expanded the finals by one team and done an eighth v ninth as the sole wildcard game. <\/p>\n
With Tasmania\u2019s planned entry in 2028 to extend the league to 19 teams, a 10-side finals series is closer to half (52 per cent) than an eight-side finals series (42 per cent).<\/p>\n
Naturally, it\u2019s only a matter of time before we get to 20 teams, so a wildcard is really just lining up with the AFL\u2019s expansion. <\/p>\n
While 2025 was a unicorn year, with 14 wins needed to make finals, it also illustrates that there were more finals caliber sides than ever before. <\/p>\n
Surely Western Bulldogs, who won 14 games and had the third-best percentage of 137, and Sydney qualifying for wildcard wouldn\u2019t be classified as mediocrity? <\/p>\n
The Dogs already got within an inch of September, while Sydney was the last team to beat Brisbane before the 2025 finals.<\/p>\n
Austin kicks emotional tribute goal | 00:45<\/p>\n
But it shouldn\u2019t count as a \u2018finals win\u2019<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s call it for what it is \u2014 a 10-team extended finals series \u2014 not a finals play-in game.<\/p>\n
For if it were a wildcard round, that surely shouldn\u2019t be included under finals records or count as a finals win. <\/p>\n
It\u2019s clearly an enhanced stage to a regular game, but would victory really feel the same as a finals win? You sense it\u2019d have an asterisk attached anytime someone says \u2018X club\u2019s last finals win was\u2019.<\/p>\n
Imagine if Gold Coast had won its first final in a wildcard game.<\/p>\n
Or, the elephant in the room, if Essendon snapped its drought without a finals win during wildcard weekend.<\/p>\n
Hard to imagine anyone going full Patrick Beverley mode (if you know you know).<\/p>\n
This is getting bogged down in pretty minor details. But clubs\u2019 runs without finals wins, or individual coaching records in September, should matter. And it should be hard to win finals.<\/p>\n
For example, Adelaide\u2019s Matthew Nicks and Fremantle\u2019s Justin Longmuir are yet to win in September and that\u2019s part of their legacies to date. <\/p>\n
Finals and wildcard should be two separate things. If not, just call it an extended finals series. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"An AFL wildcard round is here. After plenty of talk around the potential of introducing a US Sports-style…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":275394,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[9126,638,12259,36846,64,63,689,55,639,684,159940,159949,159948,159950,159934,159935,51868,159952,159936,12735,13213,17344,93800,64913,659,2105,2485,11288,159942,83940,159947,159946,33330,10400,16712,647,7804,159944,9139,159938,159939,677,66055,127769,71140,159937,71040,33230,701,159941,159943,85,7663,41559,660,159951,158856,158857,159945],"class_list":["post-275393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-adelaide-crows","tag-afl","tag-andrew-dillon","tag-andrew-mcgrath","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australia-and-new-zealand","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-ben-cotton","tag-book-finals-clash","tag-boss-hits","tag-copycat-move","tag-crows-book-finals","tag-eight-side-finals-series","tag-finals-caliber-sides","tag-finals-clash","tag-finals-play-in-game","tag-finals-qualifier","tag-finals-race","tag-finals-series","tag-finals-win","tag-finals-wins","tag-flag-run","tag-footy-world","tag-getty-images-inc","tag-gold-coast","tag-grand-final","tag-historic-finals-move","tag-home-preliminary-final","tag-home-semi-finalists","tag-initial-takeaways","tag-josh-chadwick","tag-justin-longmuir","tag-matthew-nicks","tag-melbourne","tag-melbourne-demons","tag-mid-season-exchange-window","tag-national-football-league","tag-nursing-niggles","tag-obvious-commercial-benefits","tag-oceania","tag-patrick-beverley","tag-pick-swaps","tag-pre-finals-bye","tag-pre-finals-bye-lull","tag-prelim-final","tag-premiership-run","tag-queensland","tag-quickfire-thoughts","tag-sole-wildcard-game","tag-sports","tag-talking-points","tag-things-stand","tag-victoria","tag-wildcard-finals","tag-wildcard-game","tag-wildcard-round","tag-workload-uptick"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=275393"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275393\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/275394"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=275393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=275393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=275393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}