is here<\/a>.<\/p>\nFor the 4 days of tournament play we should see dry and sunny conditions with temperatures peaking in the high-80s Fahrenheit, accompanied by light to moderate winds reaching 10-15mph in the afternoons.<\/p>\n
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of recent winners gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited here:<\/p>\n
2024, Rory McIlroy (-15). 340 yards (1st), 60.7% fairways (31st), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (3rd)
\n2023, Nicolai Hojgaard (-21). 313 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (25th), 75.0% greens in regulation (28th), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd)
\n2022, Jon Rahm (-20). 307 yards (13th), 42.9% fairways (46th), 77.8% greens in regulation (8th), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st)
\n2021, Collin Morikawa (-17). 302 yards (10th), 64.3% fairways (5th), 79.2% greens in regulation (7th), 1.72 putts per GIR (15th)
\n2020, Matthew Fitzpatrick (-15). 300 yards (16th), 76.8% fairways (1st), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 1.70 putts per GIR (5th)
\n2019, Jon Rahm (-19). 315 yards (8th), 67.9% fairways (8th), 87.5% greens in regulation (1st), 1.65 putts per GIR (1st)
\n2018, Danny Willett (-18). 302 yards (16th), 71.4% fairways (12th), 81.9% greens in regulation (3rd), 1.64 putts per GIR (1st)
\n2017, Jon Rahm (-19). 313 yards (4th), 66.1% fairways (22nd), 77.8% greens in regulation (26th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd)
\n2016, Matthew Fitzpatrick (-17). 298 yards (16th), 80.4% fairways (4th), 77.8% greens in regulation (21st), 1.65 putts per GIR (2nd)
\n2015, Rory McIlroy (-21). 322 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (37th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (4th)
\n2014, Henrik Stenson (-16). 310 yards (2nd), 82.1% fairways (2nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.75 putts per GIR (16th)
\n2013, Henrik Stenson (-25). 300 yards (7th), 89.3% fairways (1st), 94.4% greens in regulation (1st), 1.71 putts per GIR (8th)
\n2012, Rory McIlroy (-23). 301 yards (2nd), 73.2% fairways (22nd), 69.4% greens in regulation (47th), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st)
\n2011, Alvaro Quiros (-19). 311 yards (1st), 53.6% fairways (55th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
\n2010, Robert Karlsson (-14). 298 yards (5th), 76.8% fairways (20th), 77.8% greens in regulation (12th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st)
\n2009, Lee Westwood (-23). 298 yards (8th), 85.7% fairways (7th), 91.7% greens in regulation (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (5th)<\/p>\n
Up until Matt Fitzpatrick\u2019s win in 2016 you could have argued with some conviction that length off the tee was pretty much a pre-requisite here at the Earth Course. From Lee Westwood in 2009 through to Rory McIlroy in 2015, each winner had ranked inside the top-8 for Driving Distance on the week, and on 4 occasions the winner was in the top-2 for distance off the tee.<\/p>\n
Now Fitzpatrick isn\u2019t long by any stretch, however he has shown an ability to perform on longer tracks (a win at the Nordea Masters and 7th at Augusta spring to mind) and perhaps that\u2019s actually the key factor in not being intimidated by the length here. More average length drivers can perform well, however shorter players need to make up for that handicap with an excellent performance from tee-to-green.<\/p>\n
The most consistent statistic from the winners detailed above, aside from tee-to-green performance, has been putting on these Bermudagrass greens. Henrik Stenson\u2019s win in 2014 saw him rank 16th in the field for putting average, which is the worst on show \u2013 indeed both Jon Rahm and Danny Willett topped that stat when proving victorious in 2018 and 2019, Nicolai Hojgaard was 2nd for Putts per GIR on his way to victory here in 2023 and Rory was 3rd on that count 12 months ago.<\/p>\n
Looking a little deeper at the past 10 winners here and we see that birdie-making and bogey avoidance is also pretty important:<\/p>\n
Rory McIlroy (2024): par 3 scoring-1; par 4: -5; par 5: -9; 23 Birdies, 8 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
\nNicolai Hojgaard (2023): par 3 scoring-4; par 4: -8; par 5: -9; 2 Eagles, 24 Birdies, 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
\nJon Rahm (2022): par 3 scoring-3; par 4: -7; par 5: -10; 1 Eagle, 22 Birdies, 4 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
\nCollin Morikawa (2021): par 3 scoring level; par 4: -7; par 5: -10; 21 Birdies, 4 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
\nMatthew Fitzpatrick (2020): par 3 scoring level; par 4: -7; par 5: -8; 22 Birdies, 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
\nJon Rahm (2019): par 3 scoring -2; par 4: -4; par 5: -13; 1 Eagle, 25 Birdies, 6 Bogeys and a Double over the course of the 4 days.
\nDanny Willett (2018): par 3 scoring -2; par 4: -4; par 5: -12; 1 Eagle, 23 Birdies and 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
\nJon Rahm (2017): par 3 scoring +1; par 4: -12; par 5: -8; 25 Birdies and 6 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
\nMatthew Fitzpatrick (2016): par 3 scoring: -1; par 4: -4; par 5: -12; 1 Eagle, 21 Birdies, 4 Bogeys and 1 Double over the course of the 4 days.
\nRory McIlroy (2015): par 3 scoring:-2; par 4: -10; par 5: -9; 26 Birdies and 5 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
\nHenrik Stenson (2014): par 3 scoring:-4; par 4: -4; par 5: -8; 23 Birdies, 5 Bogeys and 1 Double over the course of the 4 days.
\nHenrik Stenson (2013): par 3 scoring:-1; par 4: -14; par 5: -10; 1 Eagle, 25 Birdies and 2 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
\nRory McIlroy (2012): par 3 scoring: level; par 4: -12; par 5: -11; 1 Eagle, 26 Birdies and 5 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.<\/p>\n
Generally the winner will have an excellent week on the par-4s whilst making birdie or better on around 50-60% of the par-5s during the course of the week.<\/p>\n
Strokes Gained: 2019 was the first time that we got a view of Strokes Gained performance here at the Earth Course, and in truth it didn\u2019t tell us much more than we might have inferred from observing the previous renewals here over the years.<\/p>\n
Looking at the six renewals overall, SG Tee to Green is most consistent factors between the winners:<\/p>\n
2024, Rory McIlroy: T: 2nd; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 37th; P: 11th
\n2023, Nicolai Hojgaard: T: 7th; A: 4th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 25th; P: 6th
\n2022, Jon Rahm: T: 25th; A: 2nd; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 2nd; P: 2nd
\n2021, Collin Morikawa. T: 8th; A: 10th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 6th; P: 14th
\n2020, Matthew Fitzpatrick. T: 8th; A: 33rd; T2G: 8th; ATG: 7th; P: 1st
\n2019, Jon Rahm. T: 4th; A: 4th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 4th; P: 9th<\/p>\n
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.<\/p>\n
Incoming Form: In terms of incoming form, the winners here had all produced some decent results in the recent past before lifting the trophy, with each having registered at least one top-7 finish in their previous 6 starts.<\/p>\n
Rory McIlroy\u2019s third DP World Tour Championship title last year came off the back of a 3rd place finish the week before in Abu Dhabi and kick-started a run of results which saw him victorious at Pebble Beach and TPC Sawgrass before completing the career grand slam at Augusta in April.<\/p>\n
Nicolai Hojgaard\u2019s form had been trending before winning this 2 years ago, with finishes of 56th and 31st on the PGA Tour improving to 2nd at the Nedbank the week before his success here at the Earth Course. 10th in Abu Dhabi earlier in the season in another classy field had reinforced his liking for desert golf, having previously won in Ras al Khaimah the year before.<\/p>\n
Jon Rahm bagged his third DP World Tour Championship title from 4 attempts here last in 2022 off the back of some very clear form, finishing 2nd at Wentworth before romping to victory at the Spanish Open. 4th at the CJ Cup on his last start ensured he was a short price for this and he duly obliged at 5\/1.<\/p>\n
2021\u2019s Champion Golfer of the Year Collin Morikawa hadn\u2019t won since his Open Championship triumph at Royal St George\u2019s in July, however with 2nd to Rory McIlroy at the CJ Cup and 7th at the ZOZO Championship on the PGA Tour over his previous two starts, there was plenty of evidence that he was in decent nick.<\/p>\n
Matt Fitzpatrick\u2019s win in 2020 came after a fortnight\u2019s break following a missed cut at the PGA Tour\u2019s RSM Classic. 46th at The Masters the week before is nothing of note, however prior to that he\u2019d sat 7th heading into Sunday at the Zozo Championship, 7th to halfway at the CJ Cup and held the lead after 36 holes at Wentworth, so was clearly playing some solid golf.<\/p>\n
Jon Rahm hadn\u2019t played for 7 weeks before he won here in 2019, with his previous start at the Spanish Open also producing silverware. 4th in the world when arriving here, the Spaniard had also won the Irish Open earlier that year on the European Tour and had finished 2nd to Danny Willett at Wentworth a couple of weeks before his homeland win.<\/p>\n
Danny Willett\u2019s season was solid if unspectacular before winning 2 years ago, however with his 3 top-10s all coming in good events in Italy, Ireland and Turkey, he was seemingly saving his best for the bigger weeks on Tour.<\/p>\n
Before that, Rahm had won twice in the season already and had produced 4 top-7 finishes in the FedEx Cup PlayOffs before 3 less convincing efforts prior to his win. Fitzpatrick had finished 7th at Augusta before winning the Nordea Masters earlier in 2016, plus he\u2019d produced a couple of top-10 finishes in his previous 8 starts. Rory had won the Dubai Desert Classic earlier in 2015 as well as the WGC Match Play and Wells Fargo Championship, plus had some decent incoming form.<\/p>\n
In fact all of the winners had some positive form either recently and\/or from the Middle East earlier that year to encourage punters:<\/p>\n
Rory McIlroy: 15\/2\/4\/MC\/5\/68\/11\/12\/2\/2\/25\/3
\nNicolai Hojgaard: 21\/MC\/6\/23\/MC\/14\/3\/5\/64\/56\/31\/2
\nJon Rahm: 1\/48\/10\/12\/55\/34\/5\/8\/16\/2\/1\/4
\nCollin Morikawa: 14\/2\/4\/71\/1\/4\/26\/MC\/63\/28\/2\/7
\nMatthew Fitzpatrick: 3\/6\/MC\/MC\/6\/MC\/42\/7\/12\/26\/46\/MC
\nJon Rahm: MC\/3\/2\/1\/11\/7\/3\/5\/13\/2\/MC\/1
\nDanny Willett: 19\/24\/MC\/18\/MC\/59\/44\/MC\/MC\/23\/7\/50
\nJon Rahm: 10\/1\/44\/28\/58\/3\/4\/5\/7\/15\/MC\/36
\nMatthew Fitzpatrick: MC\/MC\/49\/6\/5\/MC\/7\/16\/MC\/49\/16\/20
\nRory McIlroy: 8\/1\/MC\/MC\/9\/17\/29\/4\/16\/26\/6\/11
\nHenrik Stenson: 5\/4\/2\/39\/19\/3\/38\/26\/23\/2\/24\/3
\nHenrik Stenson: 10\/3\/2\/2\/3\/43\/1\/33\/1\/34\/31\/7
\nRory McIlroy: MC\/10\/60\/5\/1\/24\/1\/1\/10\/2\/3\/MC
\nAlvaro Quiros: MC\/MC\/53\/MC\/68\/37\/16\/MC\/49\/7
\nRobert Karlsson: WD\/14\/7\/65\/16\/MC\/42\/29\/2\/34\/MC\/4
\nLee Westwood: 2\/8\/3\/9\/3\/23\/8\/9\/1\/9\/8\/54<\/p>\n
Course Form: Apart from the early renewals and Jon Rahm\u2019s debut success in 2017, winners here generally had some decent course form prior to victory and each of the past 6 winners had recorded a top-10 finish here in the past:<\/p>\n
Rory McIlroy: 3\/5\/11\/1\/5\/2\/1\/9\/20\/4\/6\/4\/22
\nNicolai Hojgaard: 4
\nJon Rahm: 1\/4\/1
\nCollin Morikawa: 10
\nMatthew Fitzpatrick: 4\/1\/12\/34\/9
\nJon Rahm: 1\/4
\nDanny Willett: 26\/21\/4\/50
\nJon Rahm: Debut
\nMatthew Fitzpatrick: 4
\nRory McIlroy: 3\/5\/11\/1\/5\/2
\nHenrik Stenson: 23\/24\/7\/1
\nHenrik Stenson: 23\/24\/7
\nRory McIlroy: 3\/5\/11
\nAlvaro Quiros: 42\/3
\nRobert Karlsson: Debut
\nLee Westwood: Debut<\/p>\n
Following Matt Fitpatrick\u2019s win here in 2020, we\u2019ve also seen 4 repeat winners with Henrik Stenson also winning the title twice, whilst Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy have now both triumphed on three occasions.<\/p>\n
The 15 renewals haven\u2019t produced any complete shocks with Westwood (16\/1), Karlsson (50\/1), Quiros (40\/1), McIlroy (6\/1), Stenson (11\/1 & 17\/2), McIlroy again (5\/1), Fitzpatrick (66\/1), Rahm (12\/1), Willett (80\/1), Rahm (7\/1), Fitzpatrick (16\/1), Morikawa (15\/2), Rahm (5\/1), Hojgaard (22\/1) and McIlroy (6\/1) all backable for various and sometimes very obvious reasons.<\/p>\n
Fitzpatrick (2016) and Rahm on debut (2017) were probably the most difficult to find as each of the other winners here in the event\u2019s history have an excellent record in the Middle East swing and each of those, except Westwood, had won either in Qatar, Dubai or both over the course of their respective careers.<\/p>\n
Fitzpatrick did however back up his success here with a top-5 finish at the Dubai Desert Classic the following year, plus Rahm won the CareerBuilder Challenge in the desert before winning this title again twice since, so perhaps it\u2019s more of a case that the pair hadn\u2019t really had chance to show their hands fully before they won here. Of course, Fitzpatrick winning this title again in 2020 demonstrates how comfortable he feels in these surroundings.<\/p>\n
The rough has been toughened a little over the years which swings the pendulum a little more towards total driving and quality ball-striking than putting in my opinion, although top-quality putters may well still find a way to get into contention this week. Those players who can find fairways (and the further down the better), find greens and produce an impressive enough performance on the Bermuda greens are most likely to succeed in my view.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, UAE. Designer: Greg Norman, 2009; Par: 72; Length: 7,706 yards; Fairways: Bermuda;…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":275463,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[566],"tags":[64,63,755,85],"class_list":{"0":"post-275462","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-golf","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-golf","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=275462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275462\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/275463"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=275462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=275462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=275462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}