{"id":281204,"date":"2025-11-13T06:43:08","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T06:43:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/281204\/"},"modified":"2025-11-13T06:43:08","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T06:43:08","slug":"china-set-for-5-growth-in-2026-on-strong-exports-macquaries-out-of-consensus-call-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/281204\/","title":{"rendered":"China set for 5% growth in 2026 on strong exports, Macquarie&#8217;s out of consensus call says"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"172\" data-end=\"634\" data-v-4026719d=\"\">China\u2019s economy could maintain a 5% growth rate in 2026, driven largely by unexpectedly strong export performance, according to Macquarie economists. <\/p>\n<p data-start=\"172\" data-end=\"634\" data-v-4026719d=\"\">In a new note, they highlight that exports have been the biggest upside surprise this year, rising 5% year-to-date through October despite the drag from Trump-era tariffs. That pace is only slightly below the 6% increase recorded in 2024, underscoring China\u2019s resilient manufacturing competitiveness.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"636\" data-end=\"1096\" data-v-4026719d=\"\">Macquarie expects exports to expand by 6% next year, far above the market consensus of around 1%. Strong external demand, they argue, is likely to persist and could reduce Beijing\u2019s urgency to roll out aggressive domestic stimulus, even as China continues to face deflationary pressures. <\/p>\n<p data-start=\"636\" data-end=\"1096\" data-v-4026719d=\"\">With global growth expected to accelerate, the economists say China may again outperform expectations on trade, supporting its broader growth trajectory into next year. <\/p>\n<p data-start=\"636\" data-end=\"1096\" data-v-4026719d=\"\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"636\" data-end=\"1096\" data-v-4026719d=\"\">A stronger-than-expected export cycle would help stabilise China\u2019s growth outlook, with implications for global supply chains, Asian FX, and commodity demand. Persistent deflation, however, highlights the uneven nature of the recovery and keeps Beijing\u2019s policy stance in focus.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"China\u2019s economy could maintain a 5% growth rate in 2026, driven largely by unexpectedly strong export performance, according&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":281205,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164,162717],"class_list":["post-281204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-exports-drive-china-growth"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281204","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=281204"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281204\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/281205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=281204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=281204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=281204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}