{"id":282316,"date":"2025-11-13T18:47:09","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T18:47:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/282316\/"},"modified":"2025-11-13T18:47:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T18:47:09","slug":"matthew-stafford-favored-to-win-2025-nfl-mvp-but-former-winner-offers-more-value","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/282316\/","title":{"rendered":"Matthew Stafford favored to win 2025 NFL MVP but former winner offers more value"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 2025 NFL<\/a> MVP race has thus far resembled a NASCAR event, the core similarity being that a new leader seemingly emerges after each induvial lap. This is unusual in the pro football world because historically, by this point in the season, the competition for the NFL’s top individual honor has been narrowed to two or three legitimate candidates for observers and bettors to make their strongest case. <\/p>\n

This season’s weekly leaderboard turnstile is alternately fascinating and puzzling but, depending on which candidate you favor, the ever-changing landscape in the NFL MVP odds can provide some massive value if you make moves within these narrow time windows. <\/p>\n

You can bet on the 2025 NFL MVP at FanDuel Sportsbook<\/a>, where new users get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager<\/a>:<\/p>\n

This week’s front-runner is Rams<\/a> quarterback Matthew Stafford<\/a> (+275), who soared into the lead behind a 280-yard, four-TD performance in a 42-26 victory over the NFC West rivals San Francisco 49ers<\/a>. Stafford now has 25 passing touchdowns against just two interceptions while completing 67.1% of his passes. He is followed in the MVP odds by Patriots<\/a> QB Drake Maye<\/a> (+300), Colts<\/a> RB Jonathan Taylor<\/a> (+475), Chiefs<\/a> QB Patrick Mahomes<\/a> (+600) and Bills<\/a> signal-caller Josh Allen<\/a> (+700).<\/p>\n

The following are our observations and recommendations for NFL MVP amid the current odds.<\/p>\n

Chalk to fade \u00a0<\/p>\n

Stafford and Maye: Just a couple short weeks ago, Stafford was an afterthought with MVP odds of around +2200 at most sportsbooks<\/a>. He has surged into MVP contention on the strength of a series of performances that harken memories of the Kurt Warner-led Rams’ Greatest Show on Turf offense that produced a Super Bowl<\/a> title. But most of his lofty recent numbers have come against the dreadful defensive units of the Jaguars<\/a>, Saints<\/a> and the injury-plagued 49ers. We expect more modest numbers starting with this weekend’s showdown against the defense-minded Seahawks<\/a> and believe Stafford’s MVP stock is likely to take a corresponding dip. We just don’t see any value in this price on a candidate who is far from a runaway favorite. <\/p>\n

In short, we feel the same about Maye. There’s no shade intended to the dynamic dual-threat quarterback on a surging Patriots club that is a fun watch with the second-year pro from North Carolina at the helm. He has been unquestionably productive and shown a willingness and aptitude for making big plays with the game on the line. Even so, this Patriots club has been feasting upon a last-place schedule and faces an upcoming stretch in which it could realistically drop three of four. Those matchups include a road date at Cincinnati (with QB Joe Burrow<\/a> possibly back from injury), a rematch with the Bills that could determine the AFC East winner and a visit to the revitalized Ravens<\/a>. We just don’t see Maybe holding up as a candidate against this schedule and find no value at these odds.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Underdog to back\u00a0<\/p>\n

Mahomes (+600):\u00a0Following a 28-7 win over the Commanders<\/a>, the near-consensus MVP narrative was that it was Mahomes’ to lose. He was priced around +130 at best, with AFC rival Josh Allen believed to be his only real competitor. Those meager odds held zero value but the current price is a steal. Mahomes and the Chiefs (5-4) come off their bye with plenty of work to do if they are to overcome the Chargers<\/a> (7-3) and Broncos<\/a> (8-2) to retain their supremacy in the AFC West. The first step is a showdown at Denver on Sunday and we believe Mahomes, who has a habit of reminding football observes of his generational talent whenever he and the Chiefs are even slightly doubted, will deliver a strong performance that puts him back in the MVP race and +600 odds in the rearview mirror. This is one of the top MVP value windows we’ve seen this season.<\/p>\n

The honorable mention goes to Allen (+700), who saw his MVP stock plummet following a 30-13 road loss to the Dolphins<\/a> in which the Buffalo offense was anemic and committed three turnovers. Even so, we wouldn’t count him out. His path likely includes Mahomes and the Chiefs coming up short of the AFC West title, while Allen clearly outduels Maye in a revenge victory over the Patriots for the AFC East crown.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Patriots dominating NFL awards landscape<\/p>\n

The Patriots (8-2) currently have a strong presence across the NFL futures landscape, and the correlation of some of these prizes is worth noting. <\/p>\n

For instance, they are now the clear favorite to finish with the best regular season record (+325), followed by the Rams (+360), Eagles<\/a> (+475) and Seahawks (+500). We believe these odds are more closely correlated to the Coach of the Year race than the crowded MVP room. <\/p>\n

Patriots coach Mike Vrabel (+125) is now the favorite for Coach of the Year, ahead of Shane Steichen (+150) of the Colts. These odds would undoubtedly be even wider if the Colts hadn’t survived a shaky performance to prevail 31-25 in overtime against the Falcons<\/a> in London. The odds reflect a distrust in the Colts to finish in the dominant fashion they started, even though an AFC South title appears headed to their mantle. <\/p>\n

In other words, any theoretical tiebreaker is going to lean in the direction of Vrabel and the Patriots, the more popular individual and franchise. If the Colts (8-2) and Patriots both finish 12-5 with a division title, we’d expect Vrabel to get the nod and expect his odds to become shorter following a likely victory on Thursday night against the struggling Jets<\/a>, while the Colts are currently 4.5-point underdogs for their Week 12 matchup against the Chiefs when they return from their bye.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 2025 NFL MVP race has thus far resembled a NASCAR event, the core similarity being that a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":275812,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[1276,64,63,631,615,1261,1256,5374,1246,1237,629,5364,6580,163190,1240,3052,1263,163189,6588,163188,1233,1231,1249,1235,163193,593,56401,32042,56402,80882,32044,163186,56408,32043,59488,6584,1260,1262,1254,85,163187,163192,163191,1272],"class_list":["post-282316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-atlanta-falcons","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-baltimore-ravens","tag-betting","tag-buffalo-bills","tag-denver-broncos","tag-drake-maye","tag-indianapolis-colts","tag-jacksonville-jaguars","tag-joe-burrow","tag-jonathan-taylor","tag-josh-allen","tag-josh-allen-mvp-odds","tag-kansas-city-chiefs","tag-los-angeles-chargers","tag-los-angeles-rams","tag-mahomes-mvp-odds","tag-matthew-stafford","tag-maye-mvp-odds","tag-miami-dolphins","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-new-orleans-saints","tag-new-york-jets","tag-nf","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-best-bets","tag-nfl-betting","tag-nfl-futures","tag-nfl-futures-bets","tag-nfl-gambling","tag-nfl-mvp-betting","tag-nfl-mvp-odds","tag-nfl-odds","tag-nfl-predictions","tag-patrick-mahomes","tag-philadelphia-eagles","tag-san-francisco-49ers","tag-seattle-seahawks","tag-sports","tag-stafford-mvp-odds","tag-steichen-coach-of-the-year-odds","tag-vrabel-coach-of-the-year-odds","tag-washington-commanders"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=282316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282316\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/275812"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=282316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=282316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=282316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}