Happy Alpha Receiver Week, everyone! No, it’s not technically a national holiday like National Tight End Day, but I’m declaring NARW (we’re workshopping it) open for business nonetheless. Week 11’s slate is incredible and it features a lot of games with massive playoff leverage. Massive leverage means feeding your best players and I think we’re going to get a lot of that this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Click here<\/a> to bet Week 11 NFL games at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a>, where new users get $300 in bonus bets if your first bet wins, along with three months of NBA League Pass<\/a>:<\/p>\n So in addition to having a five-pack of games against the spread we’re giving you five anytime touchdown scorers this week, all of them alpha receivers at short prices. If you’re tailing these picks, I’d recommend tossing them in a parlay, which gives you a healthy 33-1 number for five perfectly reasonable options to score touchdowns.\u00a0<\/p>\n Let’s get to it and win some money. \u00a0<\/p>\n Bet NFL Week 11 action at BetMGM<\/a>, where new users can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back<\/a> if their first bet doesn’t win:<\/p>\n Best betsRams<\/a> -3 vs. Seahawks<\/a><\/p>\n As predicted in this week’s Bet It Now column<\/a>, the Rams quickly ended up laying the full field goal across the entire market. Obviously we’d rather be holding Los Angeles -2.5 considering how close this game could be, but I’m perfectly fine laying the full field goal on the best team in football, especially in a game where most folks will be backing Seattle.<\/p>\n Don’t get me wrong: the Seahawks are a great team. Sam Darnold’s<\/a> playing incredible football, they just added Rashid Shaheed<\/a> (who didn’t have to do much last week thanks to Seattle rolling) and have maybe the best defense in the NFL<\/a>.<\/p>\n But the Rams have the best quarterback in football right now, with Matthew Stafford<\/a> playing at an MVP level this year. If there’s anyone who can diagnose the different pressures Mike Macdonald is going to dial up and get the ball out to his playmakers quickly, it’s Stafford.\u00a0<\/p>\n Plus, add in Sean McVay’s elite playcalling and history against Macdonald’s defenses (25+ in all three times they’ve squared off), gives me the confidence to back the Rams to win by a field goal or more here.\u00a0<\/p>\n Commanders<\/a> at Dolphins<\/a> Over 47.5<\/p>\n The Dolphins offense has shown some serious signs of life over the last month, with Miami winning two of three and scoring 30+ points in both of those games, the TNF blowout against the resurgent Ravens<\/a> being the exception.\u00a0<\/p>\n Washington’s struggled in the last few weeks but I think the lack of points last week can be directly tied to a letdown following the unnecessary primetime injury Jaylen Daniels suffered. And even in that letdown, the Commanders still scored 22 points. Terry McLaurin<\/a> still won’t be playing in this game, but Deebo Samuel<\/a> should be a full go here.\u00a0<\/p>\n What I like more than the reasonably competent offenses is the bad defenses here. Washington’s giving up 35.8 points per game over its last five contests. The Dolphins defense has been better of late, but this is still a bottom tier unit that’s giving up more than 300 yards per game on average over its last three games.\u00a0<\/p>\n Miami’s explosive play ability will draw Washington into a more up-tempo game and we’ll get a bunch of scoring overseas.\u00a0<\/p>\n Vikings<\/a> -2.5 vs. Bears<\/a><\/p>\n J.J. McCarthy<\/a> is a unrestricted go for this one, it appears, after practicing in full on Wednesday. Obviously that’s massive, as the Bears would be favored in a Max Brosmer<\/a> situation.\u00a0<\/p>\n Chicago’s tied atop of the NFC North, but the Bears’ record is a little fraudulent, as noted by their negative point differential. They needed a miracle to beat the Bengals<\/a> and probably should\/would have lost to the Giants<\/a> last week if Jaxson Dart<\/a> had played the whole game. Credit to Caleb Williams<\/a> for closing these games out, but they could easily see their record flipped.\u00a0<\/p>\n Minnesota isn’t a great team by any stretch, but the defense is substantially better than Chicago’s right now and I think the Vikings can generate enough pressure on Williams this week to give them positive field position on a turnover or two.\u00a0<\/p>\n Aaron Jones<\/a>‘ record against the Bears shouldn’t be discounted. Former Packers<\/a> players still get up to face the Bears: Jones had 40 carries for over 190 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago last year and scored against them earlier this season as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n It also kind of feels like a Justin Jefferson<\/a> explosion game is simmering.\u00a0<\/p>\n Buccaneers<\/a> +5.5 at Bills<\/a><\/p>\n Fading the Bills at home off an embarrassing loss — what could go wrong?! Well, a lot, of course. Josh Allen<\/a> could have a huge game here and launch another down-the-stretch MVP campaign. But Allen can’t play defense and after a massive performance against the Chiefs<\/a> two weeks ago, the Bills came back to reality against Miami. Now they have to play against a Bucs team that is finally getting healthy.<\/p>\n It’s trending towards both Bucky Irving<\/a> and Chris Godwin<\/a> playing this week. Baker Mayfield<\/a> got beat by Drake Maye<\/a> at home last week, so it’s not like he’s feeling cheerful right now.<\/p>\n And the Bills want to run the ball, it’s their bread and butter. The Bucs were gashed by the Pats in the run game last week and they were challenged by Todd Bowles on it ahead of Week 11. I expect a strong effort to limit James Cook<\/a> and Mayfield to get in chef mode with his weapons back.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Bills probably steal this one with a field goal, but Mayfield is as live as anyone to sneak through the back door late against a questionable defense even if Buffalo has a bigger lead.\u00a0<\/p>\n 49ers<\/a> -3 at Cardinals<\/a><\/p>\n The 49ers defense is a concern here, because Arizona’s offense has been impressive and the Niners are just so banged up. But injuries are really shifting our way in this matchup. Marvin Harrison Jr<\/a>. is out after having surgery on his appendix. Zay Jones<\/a> is done for the year. San Francisco is getting serious reinforcements, with Brock Purdy<\/a> and Ricky Pearsall<\/a> both cleared to play, per Kyle Shanahan on Wednesday.\u00a0<\/p>\n Those were probably expected pieces of news, given the spread didn’t shift, and people will tell you Mac Jones<\/a> has played well enough to qualify as “not a downgrade” from Purdy. It’s not an unfair statement, but Purdy’s still a legit MVP candidate when he’s healthy.\u00a0<\/p>\n I think we see a big game from him knowing that chatter and he’s got all the weapons in place for it. The 49ers were a Super Bowl<\/a> favorite preseason in large part because of the plethora of weapons at Purdy’s disposal. They’ll (almost) all be on the field for this one.<\/p>\n Despite an impressive defensive performance against the Cowboys<\/a> two weeks ago, we saw the Cardinals struggle last week against a good divisional opposing offense (yes I know two of the scores were defensive) and the 49ers should be able to move the ball at will here, quadruple team Trey McBride<\/a> and dare Jacoby Brissett<\/a> to beat them with Michael Wilson<\/a>, Greg Dortch<\/a> and Emari Demercado<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Week 10 NFL player props\u00a0Oronde Gadsden Over 3.5 receptions (-130)<\/p>\n Gadsden was cleared to play this week and now is getting a Jaguars<\/a> defense that has been completely shredded by tight ends for the last month plus.<\/p>\n The Jaguars were a “good” defense that was completely reliant on luck and turnovers, and now they’ve regressed back to the mean. Dalton Schultz<\/a> lit them up, Brock Bowers<\/a> feasted. A.J. Barner had a great game. Travis Kelce<\/a> scored on them. Several Rams tight ends had their way against Jacksonville.\u00a0<\/p>\n This is a plus, plus matchup for Gadsden, who is trying to poke his head into the elite tight end range early in his career. I’m fine if you want to take 42.5 yards instead of the juicier 3.5 catches, but this feels like a layup given how many targets tight ends are seeing against Jacksonville.\u00a0<\/p>\n Jordan Love<\/a> Over 1.5 passing TDs (-104)<\/p>\n This is a silly number for a QB who was in the top five MVP odds just a month ago. Except, of course, Love hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since before Halloween. And in that time, the Packers have looked awful on offense, and they have heard about it.<\/p>\n What better time to get right than against the Giants defense, which has been shredded by opposing quarterbacks essentially all yea?.\u00a0<\/p>\n We get the added benefit of Jameis Winston<\/a> on the other side, which means the Packers will either be involved in a shootout with a gunslinger and forced to throw more or end up with some shorter fields when Winston throws picks and get more scoring opportunities.\u00a0<\/p>\n Matt LaFleur’s heard the noise on Love and I expect him to set his QB1 up in a game the Packers should win in their sleep — if they aren’t playing down to the competition again.\u00a0<\/p>\n Woody Marks<\/a> Over 14.5 rushing attempts (-125)<\/p>\n DeMeco Ryans<\/a> made it clear this week no one is a rookie anymore. He also made it clear Davis Mills<\/a> will continue to progress. Let’s combine those and translate them: “We’re playing the Titans<\/a> and they’re not good, so Woody Marks is going to run the ball a ton and we’re going to try and just play great defense and steal a division win with our backup quarterback.”<\/p>\n Marks has run well this season and the Titans are not a great defense. They are coming off their bye and should be healthier, but the Texans<\/a> shouldn’t be in a negative gamescript here as nearly a touchdown favorite on the road.\u00a0<\/p>\n They’re going to feed Marks a ton and hope he can set them up for a touchdown or some field goals and walk out of Nashville with a win.<\/p>\n Anytime touchdown scorer propsJa’Marr Chase<\/a> anytime TD (-115)<\/p>\n Joe Burrow<\/a> just came back to the building and Cincinnati opened the superstar quarterback’s practice window. His BFF Chase knows it’s on him to help the Bengals win and keep their playoff hopes alive for when Burrow returns on Thanksgiving.<\/p>\n The Steelers<\/a> popped up with a good defensive game against the Colts<\/a>, but that seems more like an aberration than reality after watching them get torched by Ladd McConkey<\/a> last week for 100+ and a score.\u00a0<\/p>\n Chase has been on fire over his last five games, averaging 113.4 yards per game with three touchdowns and an absolutely absurd 72 targets in that stretch.\u00a0<\/p>\n Flacco and the Bengals have a fever and the only prescription is more Chase. \u00a0<\/p>\n Drake London<\/a> anytime TD (+100)<\/p>\n Speaking of defenses that might secretly be questionable … the Panthers<\/a> just got handled by Tyler Shough<\/a> and the Saints<\/a> offense, and now head to Atlanta where they’re facing a desperate and angry Falcons<\/a> team.<\/p>\n This Falcons team also probably doesn’t forget being humiliated by the Panthers in Charlotte not so long ago, when Carolina blanked them 30-0.\u00a0<\/p>\n London’s been on a ripper lately, scoring four touchdowns in his last two games, topping 100+ yards in four of his last five and getting 58 targets over that stretch. Michael Penix knows where to look against a defense that just gave up 100+ yards to Chris Olave<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Even money feels like a steal for a wideout having the best season of his career and is a target hog.<\/p>\n Justin Jefferson anytime TD (+107)<\/p>\n If the books continue to give us plus-money numbers on Justin Jefferson touchdowns, I’m going to continue to take those numbers, particularly at home against a Bears defense that isn’t afraid to give up yards to top-end wideouts.\u00a0<\/p>\n Darius Slayton<\/a> hit them for 89 last week despite getting a healthy dose of Russell Wilson<\/a>. Chase and Tee Higgins<\/a> lit them up for 230+ yards the week before. Chris Olave had 98 yards and two scores two weeks before that and Zay Flowers<\/a> had a perfectly fine game in a Week 8 blowout.\u00a0<\/p>\n Jefferson is the alpha to end all alphas at wideout and has 32 (!) targets over the last three weeks. He’s going to be peppered and I think he gets deep on this porous Bears defense.\u00a0<\/p>\n