Australia and other governments are currently meeting in Brazil for COP30 to determine just how much the world is willing to do to address the threat posed by climate change, as the pact signed 10 years ago in Paris faces its own existential crisis.<\/p>\n
Government representatives have travelled to Bel\u00e9m in northern Brazil for the latest round of the United Nations Climate Change Conference that began on Monday, at a time of global political uncertainty and massive investments in new fossil fuel infrastructure.<\/p>\n
Under the Paris Agreement, 195 parties pledged to take measures to keep global average temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Last week, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)\u2019s latest \u201cEmissions Gap Report\u201d suggested the world was \u201cvery likely\u201d to breach this threshold within the next decade.<\/p>\n
Australian climate scientist Bill Hare says negotiations in Bel\u00e9m will be a \u201ctest about whether the world is serious about fixing the projection where we\u2019re heading now, which is towards 2 and 3 degrees\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cMy feeling is that the Paris Agreement is at stake in this COP,\u201d Hare says. \u201cIf you can\u2019t deal with this central problem where the world has agreed on a temperature goal \u2026 it\u2019s missing it by a mile and a half.\u201d<\/p>\n
If countries live up to their commitments, global average temperatures are expected to rise between 2.3 and 2.5 degrees by 2100 \u2013 a reduction on previous forecasts \u2013 but without further ambition the world is still on track for 2.8 degrees of warming.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe magnitude and duration of this overshoot must be limited as much as possible. Each year of delayed action locks in carbon-intensive infrastructure,\u201d the UNEP report said. \u201cIt results in greater losses for people and ecosystems, higher adaptation costs and a heavier reliance on costly and uncertain carbon dioxide (CO2) removal.\u201d<\/p>\n
UN Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres lashed leaders in a pre-COP speech for their \u201cmoral failure \u2013 and deadly negligence\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe hard truth is that we have failed to ensure we remain below 1.5 degrees,\u201d he said. \u201cAfter decades of denial and delay, science now tells us that a temporary overshoot beyond the 1.5 limit \u2013 starting at the latest in\u00a0the early 2030s \u2013 is inevitable.\u201d<\/p>\n
Even as the need for action becomes more pressing, global efforts to address climate change have come under attack, particularly from the United States, where President Donald Trump has repeatedly described global heating as a \u201choax\u201d.<\/p>\n
Since withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement on the first day of his second term \u2013 as he did during his first term \u2013 Trump has sought not only to lock in the extraction and consumption of new fossil fuels but also to disrupt any international negotiation that would frustrate this push.<\/p>\n
The Trump administration announced it would not send personnel to the climate talks in Brazil. It is already working to derail any firm commitments to emissions reduction.<\/p>\n
When the International Maritime Organization (IMO) met last month to vote on a framework to curb shipping emissions, Trump threatened its 176 member countries with a range of measures including new tariffs.<\/p>\n
\u201cI am outraged that the International Maritime Organization is voting in London this week to pass a global Carbon Tax,\u201d he posted on social media. \u201cThe United States will NOT stand for this Global Green New Scam Tax on Shipping, and will not adhere to\u00a0it in any way, shape, or form.\u201d<\/p>\n
The vote was subsequently delayed.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are substantial risks that natural gas could crowd out investments in renewable technologies or delay the broader adoption of zero-emission energy systems. These risks must be carefully managed to ensure natural gas serves as a true bridge fuel rather than a long-term dependency that hinders progress toward decarbonisation goals.\u201d<\/p>\n
Brown University political economist Mark Blyth said the Trump administration has been pursuing a \u201cstrategy of carbon dominance\u201d to protect the US fossil fuel industry, which now produces 22 per cent of the world\u2019s oil and a quarter of its gas. It faces a growing challenge from cleaner, cheaper and more efficient renewable energy \u2013 the solar, wind and battery manufacturing that is\u00a0dominated by China.<\/p>\n
For the US, says Blyth, \u201cthe direction of travel is clear \u2013 carbon dominance is the goal\u201d. He says the deferral of the shipping emissions deal shows the US is \u201cstill the critical actor\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut the real emissions frontier is China, and East and South Asia,\u201d he says. \u201cThey can do much on their own and Chinese exports are giving them the tools.\u201d<\/p>\n
The positive news is that this year for the first time, renewables overtook coal as the generator of most of the world\u2019s energy.<\/p>\n
Speaking to reporters the week before COP, the former head of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and architect of the Paris Agreement Christiana Figueres said the world is \u201cwalking in the same direction, if too slowly\u201d.<\/p>\n
Figueres said renewables now meet four-fifths of global electricity demand growth, solar is being deployed 15 times faster than predicted a decade ago, and one in every five new vehicles sold worldwide is electric.<\/p>\n
The situation poses trouble for Australia, with its economy still reliant on fossil fuel exports \u2013 despite Treasury modelling projecting the value of that coal and gas trade almost halving over the next five years. Australia\u2019s commitment to the gas industry was further entrenched this year by the approvals of major projects in the north of the\u00a0country.<\/p>\n
For years the Australian government has insisted its gas exports could act as a \u201cbridging fuel\u201d for South-East Asian countries looking to move away from coal, but a report prepared by consulting firm Deloitte for the Western Australian government contradicted that characterisation.<\/p>\n
The report \u2013 which was delivered last December and not released despite multiple freedom of information requests \u2013 suggested that while China, India and others would provide new markets for Australian gas, they were already moving to install renewables at scale and these exports might actually delay decarbonisation.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are substantial risks that natural gas could crowd out investments in renewable technologies or delay the broader adoption of zero-emission energy systems,\u201d it warned. \u201cThese risks must be carefully managed to ensure natural gas serves as a true bridge fuel rather than a long-term dependency that hinders progress toward decarbonisation goals.\u201d<\/p>\n
These challenges underscore Australia\u2019s own lack of engagement with the process, even as this country has campaigned hard to host COP31, in a joint effort with Pacific nations.<\/p>\n
Speaking at a press conference in the lead-up to the negotiations, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he is \u201cprepared to travel\u201d to Bel\u00e9m for a meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, the president of rival bidder T\u00fcrkiye. Erdo\u011fan has not confirmed his attendance.<\/p>\n
Australia is represented at COP by Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Assistant Minister for Climate Change and Energy Josh Wilson. South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas, who declared his readiness to advance Adelaide\u2019s case to host, said he had bought a refundable ticket to Brazil, but \u201cit\u2019s a\u00a0long way to go to not make a difference\u201d.<\/p>\n
If neither T\u00fcrkiye nor Australia reaches a deal to secure the event by the time COP30 ends, next year\u2019s conference will default to the German city of Bonn.<\/p>\n
Both Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong, who has previously served as climate minister, and Jan Adams, the current head of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, are understood to be wary of hosting COP31. Both were involved with the Copenhagen summit in 2009 \u2013 which failed to secure any commitments to emissions reduction \u2013 and are aware of the intense global scrutiny the conference brings to host countries. Meanwhile, a lukewarm response from the prime minister has raised concerns about a lack of momentum.<\/p>\n
The COP bid, however, has been integral to Australia\u2019s re-engagement with its Pacific neighbours in recent years, amid broader tensions with China. This dynamic has only sharpened following an advisory opinion delivered by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in July that found countries could be held liable for continuing to approve fossil fuel expansion.<\/p>\n
Though wealthy countries, including Australia, have approached this year\u2019s COP with a sense of business as usual, Vanuatu\u2019s climate change minister, Ralph Regenvanu, has insisted the ICJ opinion makes this impossible.<\/p>\n
Speaking to reporters ahead of COP, Regenvanu called out Australia explicitly, noting that Australia allowed T\u00fcrkiye to exclude representatives from Pacific countries from talks about hosting COP31. He said approvals for new fossil fuel extraction run directly counter to the advisory opinion, which Vanuatu is pushing for the UN General Assembly to adopt.<\/p>\n
\u201cUnfortunately, we have low expectations of COP again,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd we are expecting some of that frustration \u2026 will add to the support for our resolution at the UN GA.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n This article was first published in the print edition of The Saturday Paper on
\n November 15, 2025 as “Bad COP, worse COP”.<\/p>\n
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