For better or worse it has been lashing down in south-west London. Good news for restocking the reservoirs but rather less so for dry-ball rugby. Had England played New Zealand 24 hours earlier it would have resembled a game of outdoor water polo and, although the matchday forecast is less biblical, a decidedly damp, grey afternoon awaits.<\/p>\n
Is it some kind of celestial clue that England\u2019s on-field drought against the All Blacks might be about to break? It is now 13 years since the last men\u2019s victory over New Zealand at what was once called Twickenham, so long ago that Maro Itoje was still at school. Troublemaker by Olly Murs (featuring Flo Rida) topped the UK charts and the nation was basking in a warm, fuzzy post-London Olympics glow that was supposed to last indefinitely.<\/p>\n
Admittedly the convincing 2019 Rugby World Cup semi-final win in Yokohama was a striking exception \u2013 it remains England\u2019s most authoritative performance in the past 20 years \u2013 but otherwise the story has been one of recurring near misses. The All Blacks are never beaten until the scoreboard says so and only eight English teams have had first-hand experience of how good that feels.<\/p>\n
All of which adds extra meaning to this weekend\u2019s eagerly awaited encounter. Not by accident have England won their past nine Tests but, even so, this will be the true measurement of their progress. Success will affirm and validate their rising confidence while defeat by the world\u2019s second-highest ranked team has the capacity to do the opposite.<\/p>\n
Listening to England\u2019s players this week<\/a>, though, has been to sense a mental corner has already been turned. While many of the same names still feature on the team sheet there is a clearer collective sense of direction these days, exemplified by George Ford\u2019s assessment of why the team have started closing out the type of games that had previously slipped through their fingers. \u201cWhen it does come to that last 20 minutes, we\u2019ve found a way to win,\u201d said the fly-half, picked ahead of Fin and Marcus Smith to be the team\u2019s tactical heartbeat.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve felt a lot calmer and more composed in those moments. That isn\u2019t to say we\u2019ve nailed it or cracked it because you\u2019ve got to go and do it all over again. But I think we can 1763185869 have a bit of confidence if it does get to that stage.\u201d<\/p>\n Chris Ashton scores England\u2019s second try during their most recent home win over New Zealand in 2012. Photograph: Henry Browne\/Action Images\/Reuters<\/p>\n The so-called \u201cPom Squad\u201d off the bench have visibly helped and could easily make a difference again. Henry Pollock has been running around in training all week impersonating Ardie Savea while Tom Curry also brings a blast of fresh turbo thrust which, to Ford\u2019s mind, will also be essential: \u201cThe moment you sit off or become a bit passive is the moment they could potentially get on top.\u201d<\/p>\n So far this recipe has worked a treat. In their previous two November games against Australia and Fiji, England have won the second half by an aggregate margin of 39-5. There is clearly nothing wrong with their fitness but, given the potentially tricky conditions and New Zealand\u2019s transition threats, an emphasis on accuracy in defence and attack will also be vital.<\/p>\n Quick GuideLake urges Wales to rouse crowd against JapanShow<\/p>\n The stand-in captain Dewi Lake believes Wales need to learn how to win again as they seek to end a miserable run of 10 straight home defeats stretching back more than two years when they take on Japan at the Principality on Saturday. Wales finally halted a sequence of 18 consecutive losses by beating Eddie Jones\u2019s side in Kobe in July but lost 52-28 to Argentina in their opening match in the Autumn Nations Series last weekend.<\/p>\n \u201cI think for us, it\u2019s about learning to win,\u201d Lake told BBC Sport. \u201cWhen you\u2019re winning consistently, you\u2019re never really worried about being behind in games, you don\u2019t think about chasing games, you don\u2019t try and do too much on your own, you just understand that your game model and what you do will eventually shine through and you\u2019ll end up being there or thereabouts. I think for us it\u2019s about learning that. <\/p>\n “We don\u2019t mind where we win. We\u2019d love to do it at home in front of the home crowd, for the fans, for everybody that\u2019s supported us through a very difficult period, but it\u2019s just about getting back to that point where you kind of feel unbeatable and any game you\u2019re in, you feel like you know by the end you can win. It\u2019s our job to give the stadium energy, to give the people something to cheer about.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Lake\u00a0takes over the armband from Jac Morgan, who faces a lengthy spell out after dislocating his shoulder in scoring a try against Argentina. Leicester\u2019s Olly Cracknell comes into the starting lineup at No\u00a08, with Alex Mann moving to openside flanker and Aaron Wainwright starting at blindside. Louis Rees-Zammit makes his first start for Wales since his return to rugby union following\u00a0a spell in American\u00a0football. PA Media<\/p>\n Thank you for your feedback.<\/p>\n With that in mind we can expect to see England\u2019s players gathering regularly in huddles, the idea being to reiterate the importance of sticking to their processes even in times of extreme strife. \u201cI suppose it\u2019s about calming everyone down, giving the lads clarity on what we need to do next,\u201d said Ford. \u201cTo make sure we come out the other side with plenty of intensity about us and then real clear direction. I know that sounds quite a simple thing to do, but when you\u2019re doing it three, four, five times a game, it\u2019s hugely important.\u201d<\/p>\n As the 32-year-old Ford is fully aware himself, there was some room for improvement in that respect last year when his potentially match-clinching penalty hit a post and a last-gasp, hurried drop goal attempt \u2013 \u201cIf we look back, we probably went back about 15, 20 metres before we kicked the ball\u201d \u2013 drifted wide. A perfect opportunity to avenge that frustrating 24-22 loss<\/a> looms. \u201cLet\u2019s absolutely keep going at them,\u201d he said. \u201cDon\u2019t get me wrong, they are a good team. But what\u2019s the point in stepping on the field at the weekend if we don\u2019t believe we can go and win? Of course we do.\u201d<\/p>\n skip past newsletter promotion<\/a><\/p>\n The latest rugby union news and analysis, plus all the week’s action reviewed<\/p>\n Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. If you do not have an account, we will create a guest account for you on theguardian.com<\/a> to send you this newsletter. You can complete full registration at any time. For more information about how we use your data see our Privacy Policy<\/a>. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy<\/a> and Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/p>\n after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n His captain, Itoje, has been echoing that front-foot message, desperate to follow in the stud marks of the boys of 2012 who thundered their way to a 38-21 win under Stuart Lancaster, ending New Zealand\u2019s 20-game unbeaten run. \u201cThirteen years later people are still remembering it,\u201d said Itoje. \u201cManu Tuilagi was the most valuable player, Brad Barritt was amazing, the pack were great. You could see Twickenham was bouncing \u2026 it was one that continues to live long in the memory. We want to be the ninth English side to do it. That\u2019s the opportunity that\u2019s there for us. In life you don\u2019t get many of these opportunities so we want to go out there and take it. I think we\u2019re capable of doing that.\u201d<\/p>\n England form another huddle said to be designed to reiterate the importance of sticking to their processes even in times of extreme strife. Photograph: Dan Mullan\/The RFU Collection\/Getty Images<\/p>\n