{"id":2863,"date":"2025-07-18T10:26:06","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T10:26:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/2863\/"},"modified":"2025-07-18T10:26:06","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T10:26:06","slug":"espn-ranks-top-30-college-football-head-coaches-vs-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/2863\/","title":{"rendered":"ESPN ranks Top 30 college football head coaches vs. expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"

Realistically, not every coach in the country has a chance to win the national championship every season. However, every coach has the opportunity to outperform expectations. On Tuesday, ESPN ranked the Top 30 active FBS coaches based on how they\u2019ve performed compared to their respective program\u2019s expectations.<\/p>\n

Admittedly, this criteria can be confusing, so let\u2019s break it down a bit more. The 30 coaches included in these rankings are required to have coached for at least four years. ESPN\u2019s Bill Connelly further prefaced his rankings by explaining how he rated coaches\u2019 performances relative to their expectations.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team\u2019s SP+ rating for that season to the school\u2019s average from the 20 previous years,\u201d Connelly wrote<\/a>. \u201c\u2026 If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating.\u201d<\/p>\n

This system allows fans to examine how a coach\u2019s success at a Group of Five school might compare to someone like Georgia\u2019s Kirby Smart. With so many great coaches to discuss, let\u2019s dive into the rankings.<\/p>\n

Here is your list formatted exactly as requested:<\/p>\n

Avg. vs. Baseline: 6.1 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 30.4 | Coach Rating: 15.8
According to Connelly\u2019s system, Ohio State\u2019s Ryan Day is the best coach in college football. In fairness, he has a strong argument for the title after guiding the Buckeyes to their first national title since 2014 last season.<\/p>\n

Despite being at the helm of one of the most historic programs in college football, Day has regularly outperformed expectations. He\u2019s never lost more than two games in a season at Ohio State and has led the program to two Big Ten titles and a national championship.<\/p>\n

\"TennesseeMatt Ray | On3<\/p>\n

Avg. vs. Baseline: 13.1 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 18.1 | Coach Rating: 15.1
Josh Heupel isn\u2019t always in the conversation when discussing the best coaches in college football, but analytics indicate he should be. After Jeremy Pruitt and the Volunteers went 0-7 in 2020, Heupel had a tall task in front of him when he took over in 2021.<\/p>\n

Heupel exceeded expectations, leading Tennessee to a 7-6 season in his debut campaign. Since then, Heupel\u2019s kept his foot on the gas. Last season, he led Tennessee to a 10-3 overall record and its first College Football Playoff appearance.<\/p>\n

Avg. vs. Baseline: 6.0 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 27.0 | Coach Rating: 14.4
There are few names in college football more synonymous with success than Kirby Smart. After serving under Nick Saban at Alabama, Smart took a chance by accepting the Georgia head coaching job. That chance has paid off in dividends.<\/p>\n

Smart boasts a 105-19 overall record in his nine seasons at Georgia. Under his leadership, the Bulldogs won back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022, and are regularly in the race for the college football crown.<\/p>\n

Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.3 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 18.1 | Coach Rating: 11.6
James Franklin might not have some of the accolades as the other coaches on this list, but he\u2019s been the standard for consistency in the Big Ten for the better part of a decade. In 12 seasons behind the steering wheel at Penn State, Franklin has only had one losing season.<\/p>\n

In contrast, he\u2019s amassed five campaigns with 11 wins or more. More impressively, Franklin only seems to be picking up steam. He had arguably his best year at Penn State yet last season, leading the Nittany Lions to their first appearance in the CFP, where they won two games and reached the playoff semifinals.<\/p>\n

\"DaboJerome Miron-Imagn Images<\/p>\n

Avg. vs. Baseline: 6.0 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 19.0 | Coach Rating: 11.2
For several years, Dabo Swinney\u2019s greatness could only be rivaled by Nick Saban. From 2015-19, Clemson reached five national championship games and won two of them.<\/p>\n

Swinney was the sole obstacle in Alabama\u2019s path. In 17 seasons under Swinney, Clemson has never posted a losing record. In fact, the program\u2019s only had one season with fewer than double-digit wins since 2011. In the ever-changing college football landscape, Swinney does things his way, and he does them well.<\/p>\n

Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.2 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 15.9 | Coach Rating: 10.7
No, that isn\u2019t a typo. Due to Dan Mullen\u2019s disappointing 5-6 finish in his final season at Florida, people forget just how much success he\u2019s had in his career. In 2009, Mullen took over at Mississippi State, which had historically been a non-factor in football.<\/p>\n

Mullen quickly flipped that narrative on its head, taking the school to eight consecutive bowl games. Mullen\u2019s best year at MSU was in 2014 when he coached QB Dak Prescott and boosted the school to its first No. 1 national ranking in program history. From there, Mullen coached at Florida for four years. Unlike at MSU, expectations were high in Gainesville. Alas, Mullen delivered early, leading Florida to 21 wins in his first two seasons with the program.<\/p>\n

Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.2 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 13.0 | Coach Rating: 9.5
Lane Kiffin is more than an entertaining poster on social media. Kiffin has been a winner at every turn of his career, with head coaching stops at Tennessee, USC, FAU and Ole Miss.<\/p>\n

Kiffin\u2019s current tenure at Ole Miss has been his magnum opus. The Rebels have posted double-digit wins in three of their last four campaigns and are almost always one of the most prolific offenses in the country. Kiffin will look to make his first CFP appearance this season and cement his place among the Mt. Rushmore of college football coaches.<\/p>\n

\"LSU(Photo: (Scott Kinser-Imagn Images)<\/p>\n

Avg. vs. Baseline: 6.0 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 14.4 | Coach Rating: 9.3
Brian Kelly hasn\u2019t exactly had the soaring success that many LSU fans hoped for when he first joined the program. Yet, it\u2019s difficult to complain about a coach who\u2019s engineered two 10-win seasons and has a jaw-dropping r\u00e9sum\u00e9 to suggest more success is in the future.<\/p>\n

Early in his career, Kelly guided Grand Valley State\u00a0to consecutive\u00a0NCAA Division II Football Championships\u00a0in\u00a02002\u00a0and\u00a02003. A decade later, Kelly\u2019s\u00a02012 Notre Dame squad\u00a0reached the BCS National Championship Game. Kelly\u2019s also succeeded in the CFP era, leading his 2018\u00a0and\u00a02020\u00a0Fighting Irish teams to the playoffs.<\/p>\n

Avg. vs. Baseline: 13.5 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 1.5 | Coach Rating: 8.7
UTSA\u2019s football program wasn\u2019t created until 2011. In its first nine seasons, UTSA had two seasons with seven or more wins. In Jeff Traylor\u2019s five seasons at the helm, the Roadrunners have never had fewer than seven wins in a season, and more often post double-digit victory campaigns.<\/p>\n

More impressively, Traylor is facing more difficult competition than his predecessors. Ahead of the 2023 campaign, UTSA joined the American Athletic Conference. Yet, Traylor hasn\u2019t allowed the move to slow him down, with the Roadrunner amassing a combined 11-5 conference record in the 2023 and 2024 seasons.<\/p>\n

Avg. vs. Baseline: 4.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 13.8 | Coach Rating: 8.3
Mike Gundy has been Oklahoma State\u2019s headman since 2005, three years earlier than Swinney took over at Clemson. His coaching journey has been nothing short of meteoric.<\/p>\n

By his sixth season with the Cowboys, Gundy was taking the team to Big 12 championships. In the mid-2010s, 10-win seasons were almost expected. While Gundy and Oklahoma State had a setback year last season, history suggests the coach won\u2019t stay down on the canvas for long.<\/p>\n

11. Barry Odom<\/a>, Purdue<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.1 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 8.8 | Coach Rating: 7.8
12. Billy Napier<\/a>, Florida<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 8.2 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 6.8 | Coach Rating: 7.6
13. Kalen DeBoer<\/a>, Alabama<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 4.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 11.7 | Coach Rating: 7.5
14. Kyle Whittingham<\/a>, Utah<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 4.5 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 11.9 | Coach Rating: 7.4
15. Jeff Brohm<\/a>, Louisville<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 6.8 | Coach Rating: 7.3
16. Ryan Silverfield<\/a>, Memphis<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 8.8 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 4.5 | Coach Rating: 7.1
17. Kirk Ferentz<\/a>, Iowa<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 2.8 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 13.1 | Coach Rating: 7.0
18. Bret Bielema<\/a>, Illinois<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 4.1 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 11.2 | Coach Rating: 6.9
19. Hugh Freeze<\/a>, Auburn<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.0 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 6.7 | Coach Rating: 6.9
20. Matt Campbell<\/a>, Iowa State<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 6.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 6.1 | Coach Rating: 6.4
21. Greg Schiano<\/a>, Rutgers<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 7.8 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 4.1 | Coach Rating: 6.3
22. Jamey Chadwell<\/a>, Coastal Carolina<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 10.3 | Avg. SP+ Rating: -0.3 | Coach Rating: 6.1
23. Mark Stoops<\/a>, Kentucky<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 4.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 8.1 | Coach Rating: 6.0
24. Bronco Mendenhall<\/a>, Utah State<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 4.9 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 7.0 | Coach Rating: 5.7
25. Willie Fritz<\/a>, Houston<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 10.4 | Avg. SP+ Rating: -1.3 | Coach Rating: 5.7
26. Lincoln Riley<\/a>, USC<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: -2.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 18.2 | Coach Rating: 5.6
27. Chris Klieman<\/a>, Kansas State<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: -0.2 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 12.2 | Coach Rating: 4.8
28. Dave Doeren<\/a>, NC State<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 3.7 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 6.3 | Coach Rating: 4.7
29. Steve Sarkisian<\/a>, Texas<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: -0.4 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 12.4 | Coach Rating: 4.7
30. Matt Rhule<\/a>, Nebraska<\/a>
Avg. vs. Baseline: 6.2 | Avg. SP+ Rating: 2.4 | Coach Rating: 4.7<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Realistically, not every coach in the country has a chance to win the national championship every season. However,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2864,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[561],"tags":[64,63,4281,4282,4283,4284,4285,707,594,706,4286,4287,4288,596,4289,4290,4291,4292,4293,4294,4295,4296,4297,4298,4299,4300,4301,720,4302,4303,4304,704,702,705,703,4305,4306,85,4307,4308],"class_list":["post-2863","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ncaaf","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-barry-odom","tag-billy-napier-99-murray-county","tag-bret-bielema-89-prophetstown","tag-brian-kelly-79-st-johns-preparatory-school","tag-chris-klieman","tag-college","tag-college-football","tag-collegefootball","tag-dabo-swinney-90-pelham","tag-dan-mullen","tag-dave-doeren-90-bishop-miege","tag-football","tag-greg-schiano-85-ramapo","tag-hugh-freeze-88-senatobia-high-school","tag-james-franklin-91-neshaminy","tag-jamey-chadwell","tag-jeff-brohm-89-trinity","tag-jeff-traylor","tag-josh-heupel-97-central-hs","tag-kalen-deboer-93-milbank-01","tag-kirby-smart-95-bainbridge","tag-kirk-ferentz-75-upper-saint-clair","tag-kyle-whittingham-78-provo","tag-lane-kiffin-94-jefferson","tag-lincoln-riley-02-muleshoe","tag-mark-stoops-86-cardinal-mooney","tag-matt-campbell-98-perry","tag-matt-rhule-94-state-college-area","tag-mike-gundy-87-midwest-city","tag-ncaa","tag-ncaa-football","tag-ncaaf","tag-ncaafootball","tag-ryan-day-97-manchester-central","tag-ryan-silverfield","tag-sports","tag-steve-sarkisian-92-west","tag-willie-fritz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2863","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2863"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2863\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2864"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}