The biggest story through the season\u2019s first month or so was that nobody knew anything.<\/p>\n
OK, sure, there were a few teams that stuck to the script. The Colorado Avalanche were good. The Nashville Predators were bad. But in between, it was chaos. Teams nobody thought would be all that good were dominating. Teams we thought would be terrible were competitive, or better. And so many presumed contenders were struggling that you could barely hear the goal horns over the sounds of all the windows slamming shut.<\/p>\n
It seemed to set up a wild season where you could just throw out the preseason projections entirely. But then, over the last few weeks, something changed. Not entirely, and there are still plenty of surprises playing out. But doesn\u2019t it feel like the hockey gods are trying hard to slam the brakes on this runaway season?<\/p>\n
Bonus five: \u201cThey are who we thought they were\u201d stories playing out<\/p>\n
5. The Habs aren\u2019t unbeatable \u2013 After looking like the East\u2019s best team through the first dozen games, Montreal has lost five of six, including three straight in regulation in which they\u2019ve been outscored 15-3. Injuries are a big factor<\/a>, and every team faces some adversity eventually. But any early thoughts of the Canadiens running away from the rest of the Atlantic Division have faded.<\/p>\n 4. The feel-good Penguins are struggling \u2013 They did get the win yesterday to split that European mini-series with the Predators, but it was just their second victory in their last seven. They\u2019re still in a playoff spot, but by only two points after building a nice early cushion. Is it time to restart the Sidney Crosby trade rumors? Of course not. We\u2019ll give them one more week on that.<\/p>\n 3. The Lightning and Stars are still good \u2013 Remember when the Tampa Bay Lightning were 1-4-2 and looked like they were cooked? Never mind. They\u2019ve won eight of 11 since, including beating the Panthers on Saturday despite missing half the roster<\/a>. Meanwhile the Dallas Stars are rolling again, winning five straight including their last two by a combined score of 12-1. Spoiler: One of these two teams is in this week\u2019s top five.<\/p>\n 2. The Mammoth aren\u2019t the powerhouse we thought \u2013 More on that down below.<\/p>\n 1. The Ducks come back to the pack \u2013 There wasn\u2019t a better story over the first month than the young gun Ducks. They weren\u2019t just winning, they were playing maybe the most exciting hockey of anyone in the league. But now they\u2019ve lost three straight in regulation, including a shutout in Minnesota on Saturday. They\u2019re at home for the next six, so they\u2019ve got a chance to get it going again. But for now, they\u2019re back to looking like a young team coming out of a rebuild.<\/p>\n So there you go. It\u2019s mid-November, and everything makes sense again. Now to take a big sip of water and check on the Pacific.<\/p>\n Four straight wins for Kings, who move into first place in the Pacific Division.<\/p>\n \u2014 Eric Stephens (@icemancometh) November 16, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Ah. Well. Nevertheless.<\/p>\n On to this week\u2019s rankings, where the toughest task was finding five teams I feel really good about to fill out the top five. (Spoiler alert: I could not.)<\/p>\n Road to the Cup<\/p>\n The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.<\/p>\n I\u2019m still not really sure what to make of the Edmonton Oilers, who haven\u2019t won a game in regulation since October. But I do know that as long as they\u2019ve got these two guys, they\u2019ll be at least vaguely terrifying at all times.<\/p>\n 5. Vegas Golden Knights (8-4-6, +5 true goals differential*) \u2013 I\u2019ll just say it: This is a pure placeholder pick. I don\u2019t know what\u2019s up with the Knights right now, with five losses in six. But I know I don\u2019t trust the Kings, Kraken or Ducks ahead of them in the Pacific, and I\u2019m not putting the Oilers here. There are plenty of teams with better records that you could make the case for here, but when in doubt, we tend to move slowly on big changes around here. So the Knights keep their spot for another week, even if they\u2019re not scaring anyone these days. Inertia for the win!<\/p>\n 4. New Jersey Devils (13-4-1, +7) \u2013 The Jack Hughes injury is a brutal piece of news, with the star expected to miss eight weeks after undergoing surgery on his finger<\/a>. The circumstances surrounding the situation remain mysterious; we know it was a \u201cnon-hockey\u201d injury that happened at a team dinner, but not much more. Peter has more on who they\u2019ll lean on in Hughes\u2019 absence<\/a>.<\/p>\n 3. Dallas Stars (12-4-3, +9) \u2013 Well well, look who\u2019s back. We haven\u2019t seen them in the top five since the season\u2019s opening week, but they\u2019ve certainly earned a return appearance. Losing Thomas Harley will hurt<\/a>, and the power play can\u2019t run at 33 percent forever \u2026 we think. But for now, they look a lot like the all-star team most of us had them pegged as heading into the season.<\/p>\n 2. Carolina Hurricanes (12-5-1, +13) \u2013 They\u2019re trailing the Devils in the standings, but I\u2019ve got them ahead partly because they didn\u2019t just lose their best player for two months and partly because I don\u2019t want them to beat me up<\/a>. That said, man, the Metro is getting crowded.<\/p>\n 1. Colorado Avalanche (13-1-5, +33) \u2013 The thing with a guy like Cale Makar is that you only get so many opportunies to see a generationally great blueliner at the absolute height of his powers, so it was probably pretty exciting for him to get a chance to see Matthew Schaefer up close last night.<\/p>\n *Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.<\/p>\n Not ranked: Utah Mammoth \u2013 Let\u2019s look back three weeks, which isn\u2019t a long time unless you\u2019re an NHL team, in which case it can be forever.<\/p>\n Three weeks ago today, the Mammoth had just gone into Winnipeg and to earn a regulation win over the Jets in a Central Division statement game. It was their seventh straight win, with the last four all coming against division rivals. The win brought their record to 8-2-0, and they were sitting alone on top of the Central. Their +13 goals differential was the best in the conference by a mile. And while we didn\u2019t know it at the time, they were just a few days away from locking their best young player into a max-length extension<\/a>.<\/p>\n In other words, it was all good. They crested to fifth spot in the Other Rankings<\/a>. Everyone was on board. And yes, that includes me \u2014 the Mammoth hadn\u2019t cracked the top five yet, but I listed them in the top spot of a \u201cstories I\u2019m starting to buy<\/a>\u201d list. The long-term view we preach around here meant I still had Colorado and Winnipeg ahead of them, but even I had to admit it was getting tough to hold that ground.<\/p>\n And then\u2026<\/p>\n Their next game was an early-season showdown with the Oilers, which they lost to snap the win streak. No big deal, we all figured. But another loss followed, this one to the Lightning, and in hindsight it was the start of a slide back to the pack. In the eight games since I said I was buying, the Mammoth are just 2-5-1. Worse, both of those wins came against the Sabres, and one of those wasn\u2019t even in regulation. They lost to the Leafs. Nobody loses to the Leafs.<\/p>\n Today, their record sits at 10-7-1, good for fifth in the Central and 10 points back of the Avalanche for top spot. The goals differential is down to +3, behind even the Chicago Blackhawks. Things can change quickly in this league.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s be clear \u2013 there are a lot worse places a team can be than sitting comfortably over .500 while just one win away from a playoff spot. If anything, this current snapshot might have felt just about right if you\u2019d seen it before the season. They\u2019re good, but hardly great. But it\u2019s that tale-of-two-seasons context that makes it feel significantly worse.<\/p>\n Maybe it shouldn\u2019t. The Mammoth came into the season as basically a coin flip to make the playoffs, according to Dom\u2019s model. At the height of the win streak, their odds were just short of 75 percent. Now they\u2019re down to about 65 percent, which still represents a decent chunk of progress. And unless you really believe in the Blackhawks keeping this up all season long, the playoff path in the Central actually looks better now than it did at the start of the season, thanks to the Wild and Blues struggling.<\/p>\n That\u2019s not to say that everything is rainbows; they need better goaltending, the power play isn\u2019t clicking and their leading scorer sure seems like he could be headed to the UFA market<\/a> in the summer. But it shouldn\u2019t feel like a crisis. This CJ column from two weeks ago<\/a> laid out the path forward, and while the win-loss numbers have changed, most of the positivity still rings true.<\/p>\n The trajectory is still pointing up in Utah, even if the ceiling might not look quite as high as it did a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n The bottom five<\/p>\n The five teams headed towards dead last and the best lottery odds for Gavin McKenna (we think<\/a>).<\/p>\n It was an ugly weekend for injuries, especially on blocked shots. Charlie McAvoy took the worst of it<\/a>:<\/p>\n Charlie McAvoy leaves the the game after taking a puck to the face pic.twitter.com\/QlsNdINYoD<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) November 16, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Nick Foligno took one in the hand and will miss a month<\/a>. And Drew Doughty looks like he\u2019ll miss a few weeks after being hit in the ankle against Ottawa.<\/p>\n 5. Buffalo Sabres (6-8-4, -14) \u2013 It was good to see Rasmus Dahlin back with the team over the weekend. Even better, he helped them to a big comeback win over the Red Wings<\/a>, snapping a five-game losing streak. They\u2019re home for the next four, so if there\u2019s any hope of climbing back into the mix before Thanksgiving, this would be it.<\/p>\n 4. San Jose Sharks (8-8-3, -6) \u2013 We made a big production of the Blackhawks escaping the bottom five last week, which led to a few Sharks fans wanting to know why they didn\u2019t deserve the same. It\u2019s a fair point, although two straight regulation losses to drop them back to .500 puts a bit of a dent in the argument. They\u2019re getting there, though.<\/p>\n 3. Nashville Predators (6-10-4, -22) \u2013 The good news: After splitting two in Sweden, they get some time off before getting back to action on Saturday. The bad news: They get the Avalanche and the Panthers, so building some momentum won\u2019t be easy.<\/p>\n 2. St. Louis Blues (6-9-4, -20) \u2013 Yep, it\u2019s getting to be about that time<\/a>.<\/p>\n 1. Calgary Flames (5-12-3, -18) \u2013 The week saw Dustin Wolf\u2019s first shutout of the season, although it took only 17 saves to blank the Sharks. The Flames lost their other two, but we\u2019ll find the positives where we can. Meanwhile, we\u2019re apparently going to do the Rasmus Andersson trade rumor thing all year long.<\/p>\n Not ranked: Washington Capitals \u2013 Are we getting worried? Saturday\u2019s shootout loss to the Devils was their fourth loss in five, and their eighth in the last ten. That\u2019s dropped them all the way down to fake .500 and 14th in the East.<\/p>\n And in maybe the weirdest story of their season so far, that\u2019s all happening despite Logan Thompson leading the league in both save percentage and goals-against average. Normally when a good team is struggling, you can just point at the goalie and say he needs to heat up. But in Washington, it may be the only part of their game that\u2019s really working right now. And it\u2019s not enough.<\/p>\n The offense just isn\u2019t holding up its end of the bargain. Alexander Ovechkin scored on Saturday, which is news because he\u2019s got only five on the year. (Sorry Caps fans, it doesn\u2019t look like the Halloween reverse jinx<\/a> is going to work this time.) Connor McMichael has just six points after pushing 60 last year. The power play is struggling. And obviously, the Pierre-Luc Dubois injury is a problem.<\/p>\n All that said, the season is hardly going down the drain. In fact, Dom\u2019s model still has them ranked in the top ten, and as favorites to make the playoffs<\/a>. Part of that has to do with their five-on-five numbers, which remain solid. That\u2019s even true during this ten-game slump, as RMNB gets into here<\/a>. Moral victories only get you so far, but at four points out of a playoff spot with games in hand, they haven\u2019t dug a hole they can\u2019t climb out of.<\/p>\n It\u2019s still a hole, though, and there\u2019s work to be done. They\u2019re at home for six of the next seven, although that stretch starts tonight against the suddenly rolling Kings, and also includes tough matchups like the Oilers, Lightning and Jets. It\u2019s not a make-or-break few weeks quite yet \u2026 unless it goes badly. Which it might, if they can\u2019t get the offense going.<\/p>\n