{"id":294650,"date":"2025-11-19T10:44:07","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T10:44:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/294650\/"},"modified":"2025-11-19T10:44:07","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T10:44:07","slug":"staring-down-the-barrel-of-three-leadership-changes-in-two-weeks-are-the-liberals-near-rock-bottom-tom-mcilroy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/294650\/","title":{"rendered":"Staring down the barrel of three leadership changes in two weeks, are the Liberals near rock bottom? | Tom McIlroy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">If we needed any more evidence that the Coalition\u2019s political stocks were tanking, the prospect of three leadership changes in two weeks might be it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The federal opposition leader, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2025\/nov\/17\/moderates-rally-around-sussan-ley-as-liberal-leader-says-she-has-been-underestimated-for-much-of-her-life\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Sussan Ley, is under extreme pressure<\/a> ahead of the last parliamentary sitting week of the year, while Victoria\u2019s Liberal leader, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2025\/nov\/18\/victorian-liberal-party-ousts-brad-battin-to-install-jess-wilson-as-first-female-leader\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Brad Battin, was rolled<\/a> in his party room on Tuesday. In New South Wales, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2025\/nov\/18\/the-conservative-parties-can-change-their-leaders-but-it-wont-stop-the-nsw-coalitions-death-spiral\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Mark Speakman appears to be on borrowed time<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Battin, the first of the group to fall, has been replaced by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2025\/nov\/18\/jess-wilson-victorian-liberal-party-who-is-new-opposition-leader-should-labor-be-worried\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">first-term MP Jess Wilson<\/a>, a year out from a state election where the Labor premier, Jacinta Allan, faces her first major test with voters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">While Liberals in Canberra stress a challenge against Ley is not imminent, her ability to survive beyond the summer break is in no way assured. Speakman could also be challenged on Thursday. And it is less than 10 days since the ACT Liberal opposition imploded and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2025\/nov\/10\/former-radio-host-mark-parton-elected-act-liberal-leader-after-leanne-castley-and-deputy-quit\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">a former talk radio host was installed as leader<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">How can this outbreak of rock-bottom political performances be explained?<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Ley and Speakman have had to pick up the pieces for their parties after Labor victories. Anthony Albanese defied predictions and won a huge majority against Peter Dutton, while Chris Minns easily ousted the former Perrottet government in NSW in March 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/email-newsletters?CMP=copyembed&amp;CMP=emailbutton\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Sign up: AU Breaking News email<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Battin struggled to unite his deeply divided party over the past year, offering a nearly unrelenting focus on Victoria\u2019s crime problem that failed to cut through with voters. Despite replacing John Pesutto just before Christmas, the former police officer was unable to heal the wounds of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2024\/dec\/12\/moira-deeming-wins-defamation-case-victorian-liberal-leader-john-pesutto-over-neo-nazi-comments-ntwnfb\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the Moira Deeming fiasco<\/a> or land lasting blows on the 11-year-old state government. When Daniel Andrews handed the leadership to Allan two years ago, some saw it as a hospital pass. Instead, Labor has growing confidence it can win a fourth term.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Nationally \u2013 and in Victoria and NSW \u2013 the Liberal brand is on the nose with voters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">On climate, gender and culture wars, the party appears as if it\u2019s from another era. A poll in the Australian Financial Review this week had the Coalition\u2019s primary vote <a href=\"https:\/\/www.afr.com\/politics\/federal\/one-nation-closing-in-on-coalition-as-ley-s-rating-hits-record-low-20251116-p5nfq2\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">at a record low 24%<\/a>. Next Monday\u2019s Newspoll in the Australian could seal Ley\u2019s fate.<\/p>\n<p>\u2018At 35, she offers a fresh face against an increasingly tired Labor government\u2019 \u2026 Victoria\u2019s new Liberal leader Jess Wilson. Photograph: Joel Carrett\/AAP<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Like in South Australia \u2013 where the Liberal leader, Vincent Tarzia, is badly behind in the polls \u2013 Labor administrations federally and in NSW and Victoria have been rewarded for delivering on their political promises and focusing on voters\u2019 most pressing concerns, including the cost of living.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Like Albanese, Minns and the South Australian premier, Peter Malinauskas, are working to capture and hold the centre of politics, appealing to broad constituencies of voters, offering outreach to business and other usually Coalition-friendly groups \u2013 all in a bid to marginalise the opposition as much as possible.<\/p>\n<p><a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"#EmailSignup-skip-link-14\" class=\"dcr-jzxpee\">skip past newsletter promotion<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-rsfwa\">Sign up to Breaking News Australia<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1xjndtj\">Get the most important news as it breaks<\/p>\n<p>Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. If you do not have an account, we will create a guest account for you on <a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\" class=\"dcr-1rjy2q9\" target=\"_blank\">theguardian.com<\/a> to send you this newsletter. You can complete full registration at any time. For more information about how we use your data see our <a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/help\/privacy-policy\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\" class=\"dcr-1rjy2q9\" target=\"_blank\">Privacy Policy<\/a>. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google <a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"https:\/\/policies.google.com\/privacy\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\" class=\"dcr-1rjy2q9\" target=\"_blank\">Privacy Policy<\/a> and <a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"https:\/\/policies.google.com\/terms\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\" class=\"dcr-1rjy2q9\" target=\"_blank\">Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/p>\n<p id=\"EmailSignup-skip-link-14\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"after newsletter promotion\" role=\"note\" class=\"dcr-jzxpee\">after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n<p>\u2018Ley and Speakman have had to pick up the pieces for their parties after Labor victories\u2019 \u2026 the NSW opposition leader with his deputy Natalie Ward (left) and MP Kellie Sloane. Photograph: Bianca de Marchi\/AAP<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Wilson won praise for immediately signalling a change of approach to focus on issues, including housing, Victoria\u2019s massive public debt and cost of living. At 35, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2025\/nov\/18\/jess-wilson-victorian-liberal-party-who-is-new-opposition-leader-should-labor-be-worried\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">she offers a fresh face<\/a> against an increasingly tired Labor government and has pledged to bring the fight up to Allan more effectively than the blokes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But the foundational problems are likely to remain for the Liberals, and the Coalition more broadly. Their traditional voter base is ageing, or abandoning them for teal independents and even Labor, in part due to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2025\/nov\/17\/moderates-rally-around-sussan-ley-as-liberal-leader-says-she-has-been-underestimated-for-much-of-her-life\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">policy divides, dysfunction and dinosaur thinking<\/a> on issues such as climate change.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Equally, the party\u2019s administrative organisations and branches appear cooked and in bad need of reform. To this end, Ley has tasked the experienced party strategist and Queensland senator James McGrath with a root and branch review of the divisions and membership processes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">It\u2019s often said political parties unable to govern themselves can\u2019t govern anyone else, something Ley and her potentially endangered Liberal colleagues would do well to remember.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\"> Tom McIlroy is Guardian Australia\u2019s political editor<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"If we needed any more evidence that the Coalition\u2019s political stocks were tanking, the prospect of three leadership&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":294651,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[43,44,41,39,42,40],"class_list":{"0":"post-294650","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-headlines","8":"tag-headlines","9":"tag-news","10":"tag-top-news","11":"tag-top-stories","12":"tag-topnews","13":"tag-topstories"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/294650","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=294650"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/294650\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/294651"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=294650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=294650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=294650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}