Polls come and go, as they say in the politicians’ talking points. But sometimes they have added weight.<\/p>\n
Newspoll is scheduled to come out at the start of the coming week and it will be an important way-post for Sussan Ley’s leadership.<\/p>\n
Victorian and NSW Liberals swapped leaders this week \u2014 both divisions tapping women in their first terms of parliament in an effort to reset and refresh the party’s battered brand.<\/p>\n
Federally it probably can’t get any worse, with polls suggesting support for the party of Menzies is stuck in the 20s. But as they say in financial markets, so long as a troubled stock still has value, until it gets to zero it can still fall further.<\/p>\n
It’s with that in mind that Ley has been busy this week, hitting every radio and television station in the land, hammering away on net zero and cost of living.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Opposition Leader Sussan Ley is determined to avoid a spill.\u00a0 (ABC News: Callum Flinn)<\/p>\n
Staving off a spill\u00a0<\/p>\n
It is all part of an effort to resurrect the Liberal Party’s brand, and her own fortunes. Most Liberal insiders say she’s safe from challenge in the coming week, the reality of politics in a febrile atmosphere is that anything is possible.<\/p>\n
Including a wildcard event, such as another terrible poll that provokes someone to launch an “empty chair” leadership spill at Tuesday’s partyroom meeting.<\/p>\n
Ley is determined to avoid that fate and she’s throwing everything at survival.<\/p>\n
On Thursday, she delivered the second major “cornerstone” or “scene-setting speech” of her leadership, this time on national security.<\/p>\n
The first was on economics and the budget, re-stating the core Liberal party virtues of fiscal rectitude and economic management.<\/p>\n
It’s an area where the party’s traditional strength over Labor took a beating at the last election, when the campaign resembled Labor-lite on spending. There was nothing to distinguish the Coalition from the Labor party.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Pauline Hanson continues to do well with older, male voters, many of whom are hit hardest by rising energy bills. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)<\/p>\n
One Nation’s rise<\/p>\n
Ley’s goal is to draw voters away from Labor and a resurgent One Nation, which is benefiting from the Coalition’s weakness and an online strategy that targets key groups of voters.<\/p>\n
With a primary of 18 per cent nationally, One Nation looks to be doing well outside its traditional stronghold of regional and peri-urban Queensland, and has made inroads into outer-suburban areas as well.<\/p>\n
Political strategists credit two drivers for this success.<\/p>\n
The first is that Pauline Hanson continues to do well with older, male voters, many of whom are hit hardest by rising energy bills.<\/p>\n
But at the same time, she has a fulsome online campaign that is winning over new, younger voters. South Park-style videos lampooning political leaders combine humour with populist messaging.<\/p>\n
This has been going on for quite some time, but there are signs Hanson’s operation is becoming more sophisticated and purposeful.<\/p>\n
The real driver of the rising primary, one suspects however, is that her movement has message clarity.<\/p>\n
Voters know what she stands for. And they’ve known for a long time. She has not come up with anything particularly new in recent years. If anything, she’s predictably consistent.<\/p>\n
The change has come from the Coalition, where ongoing questions over leadership and policy direction show signs of leaving its voters unsure of what it stands for.<\/p>\n
Loading\u00a0Coalition’s inconsistent messaging<\/p>\n
The about-face on net zero may well have further muddied the waters. While net zero is “dead”, according to the Coalition, participation in the Paris Agreement is not.<\/p>\n
One Nation, by contrast, wants out of the climate pact completely.<\/p>\n
Simple, direct and unambiguous.<\/p>\n
It’s the same story on immigration, where the Coalition is compelled to balance the realities of maintaining a steady supply of skilled immigrants to fill jobs in sectors without enough workers.<\/p>\n
ABC Politics in your inbox<\/a><\/p>\n Sign up to the ABC Politics newsletter with Courtney Gould<\/p>\n So will its coming immigration policy review generate a Labor-lite outcome or a One Nation-lite result?<\/p>\n Either way, Hanson will have more scope than Ley to demand a lower migration number.<\/p>\n The threat from One Nation is clearly not just a problem for Ley. David Littleproud is also in the frame here.<\/p>\n One of the jobs of National Party leaders over the past quarter-century has been to neutralise the threat from One Nation.<\/p>\n At various points in time, that role is sometimes shared with the Liberal leader, such as during John Howard’s prime ministership, when One Nation was kept at bay.<\/p>\n It’s notable that while they do not appeal to inner city voters, names like Barnaby Joyce, Matt Canavan, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and more recently Andrew Hastie, are likely to be more capable of appealing to swinging right-leaning voters.<\/p>\n Yet none are in key Coalition frontbench roles, banished deliberately or by choice to the backbench.<\/p>\n None of these circumstances are caused by One Nation. But One Nation is the indirect beneficiary.<\/p>\n As is the government, which continues to benefit from the opposition hogging most of the limelight (and yes, it’s not lost on me that more than half of this column so far has been about the opposition).<\/p>\n The threat from One Nation is clearly not just a problem for the Liberals but the Nationals too. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)<\/p>\n Labor keeps a low profile<\/p>\n For much of the last few weeks, Labor ministers have been keeping a relatively low profile. Preferring to keep the media cycle on Ley and her rivals.<\/p>\n But there are troubles and challenges for the government starting to poke through the Coalition’s noise.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n