The article, by economists Joel Fernando, Kate McLoughlin and Ravi Ratnayake, is based on insights from a survey of more than 100 medium to large businesses that the RBA speaks to in its liaison program.<\/p>\n
It found that while firms expect AI investments will make a meaningful difference in the future, many businesses\u2019 adoption of AI today is still in its early, or even experimental, stages.<\/p>\n
Nearly 40 per cent of firms said they had \u201cminimal\u201d adoption of AI tools, and in these cases, it was typically in the form of \u201cdigital assistants\u201d such as Microsoft Copilot or ChatGPT. These are AI tools that can summarise your emails or help with research (often with dubious regard for facts), but they don\u2019t look like productivity game-changers.<\/p>\n
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The RBA\u2019s survey found adoption of AI by Australian firms was \u201cpiecemeal\u201d. Often it included staff using ChatGPT.Credit: Reuters<\/p>\n
Some of the firms surveyed said they were using AI more heavily, but these were generally larger businesses, and the economists said that for most firms \u201cadoption has been shallow to date\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cOverall, many surveyed firms indicated that their adoption of AI tools to date has been relatively piecemeal, with adoption often being employee-led rather than employer-led,\u201d the RBA economists said.<\/p>\n
But what about the fears of an AI \u201cjobpocalypse\u201d?<\/p>\n
The RBA data doesn\u2019t reflect the wider labour market, and of course, the effect of AI will change from job to job. Even so, the survey and other evidence suggest AI has had a pretty modest impact on staffing so far. Firms surveyed said \u201cmost\u201d workers displaced by technology (including AI) had been moved to other jobs in the same employer, though the businesses expected a more \u201cdisruptive\u201d impact from AI in the future.<\/p>\n
About half the surveyed firms expected AI would lead to a \u201cslight\u201d reduction in their total staff over the next three years, due to factors such as natural attrition, hiring fewer new workers, redundancies, or a combination of all three.<\/p>\n
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Westpac chief economist is asked more about AI than her view on interest rates.Credit: Renee Nowytarger<\/p>\n
Many workers are rightly concerned about the risk of AI to their jobs \u2013 no least in industries such as mine, the media \u2013 and these findings don\u2019t put those fears to bed. But they do suggest any dramatic changes are still some way off.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s also one thing for companies to say they plan to cut costs thanks to new technology, but another to do it without creating a gap in their operations. The Commonwealth Bank infamously said it was cutting 45 jobs earlier this year because the roles were being replaced with AI-powered chatbots, only to later backflip<\/a>.<\/p>\n The wider economic point is that big technological changes in the past have created new jobs and businesses, as well as wiping some out. That may well happen with AI-related changes, too, but no one knows for sure and it\u2019s likely to be debated for years to come.<\/p>\n And that\u2019s another over-arching theme in the RBA research: companies are just very uncertain about the potential use cases for AI, whether they\u2019ll have enough skilled staff, the potential cost, or how it will be regulated.<\/p>\n Might AI usher in a new era of rapid productivity growth, reversing a long-running slump? Maybe, but chances are it won\u2019t happen quickly.<\/p>\n This uncertainty matters because if AI is really going to transform our economies, businesses are going to have to make major changes to how they operate.<\/p>\n