{"id":309342,"date":"2025-11-26T06:20:22","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T06:20:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/309342\/"},"modified":"2025-11-26T06:20:22","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T06:20:22","slug":"the-las-vegas-gp-reset-everything-here-are-5-ways-the-f1-title-could-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/309342\/","title":{"rendered":"The Las Vegas GP reset everything. Here are 5 ways the F1 title could end"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prime Tire Newsletter | This is The Athletic\u2019s twice-weekly F1<\/a> newsletter. Sign up here<\/a> to receive Prime Tire directly in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday.<\/p>\n

Welcome back to Prime Tire, where we\u2019re all still processing what happened in Vegas over the weekend. I hear that\u2019s normal?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m Patrick, and Madeline Coleman will be along shortly. And, oh, look, this championship, that looked dead two weeks ago, is suddenly very alive. Lando Norris leads. Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen are tied 24 points back. We have a lot to talk about. Let\u2019s dive in.<\/p>\n

Las Vegas Was \u2026 A LotI survived the Las Vegas GP Fan Zone<\/p>\n

Well, after a missed connection delayed me a bit, I finally made it to the sensory overload capital of America in time for qualifying and the race.<\/p>\n

By now, you know what happened.<\/p>\n

Rain made qualifying a sloppy affair that brought out the best of F1\u2019s drivers. And, as is tradition in Las Vegas, things got messier the longer F1 stayed there. Verstappen won, both McLaren drivers were disqualified, and we\u2019ve got ourselves a whole new ballgame (tire game?) for the championship. You can read about that here<\/a>, but first, let me share with you a tiny glimpse of the fan zone behind the main grandstand.<\/p>\n

Before the race, we reported that the Las Vegas GP wanted to go bigger and cheaper in 2025. I can\u2019t speak to how different this fan zone was from previous years, but I think what I saw qualifies as \u201cbigger.\u201d<\/p>\n

There was an acrobat spinning inside a literal ring of fire, or someone taking Johnny Cash songs too seriously. One of the two. I saw two performers doing some kind of gravity-defying, roller-skate couples routine. And then there was an LED robot stalking toward me, dancing to Shaggy performing nearby. I can\u2019t forget the other neon robots falling off a giant scaffolding structure into a trampoline and back to the scaffolding again. (This was actually kind of sick.) But \u2026 most important \u2026 was the Doritos claw machine:<\/p>\n

\"two<\/p>\n

You simply haven\u2019t lived until you\u2019ve watched adult humans bob for bags of Doritos while Shaggy sings \u201cIt Wasn\u2019t Me\u201d somewhere behind you.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what Luke said about it in our blog:<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcac \u201cI wrote about how<\/a> the Las Vegas Grand Prix has the freedom to be creative and do things a bit differently compared to other F1 races. Well, I\u2019ve just gone and put that to the test \u2014 by becoming a human claw that was dropped into a pit of Doritos. Yes, really. It\u2019s in the fan zone behind the main grandstand, and it\u2019s free for anyone to have a go \u2026 I managed 58, but the record is 200! The secret is in the legs, apparently. Only in Las Vegas, eh?\u201d<\/p>\n

Truly. Here\u2019s our story<\/a> on how Vegas trying new things is becoming a blueprint for other F1 races.<\/p>\n

What Happens Now?The double disqualification resets everything<\/p>\n

Since the Dutch GP at the end of August, the entire championship has flipped on its head; Verstappen went on a wild run with 179 points across eight races.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s how you erase a 104-point deficit. The other way of doing it is seeing your two title rivals both (!!) get disqualified in the Las Vegas GP.<\/p>\n

Norris\u2019 and Piastri\u2019s disqualifications were stunning. It would always take just one moment to reset the F1 championship completely. You\u2019d just expect it to happen on-track. Not a double disqualification in the dead of night over about 0.07 mm of plank wear. Let me explain \u2026<\/p>\n

The DSQ explained. Briefly. Very briefly<\/p>\n

Every F1 car has a wood-composite plank (aka, skid block) on the underside. It\u2019s there to prevent teams from running their cars too low to the ground, which would give them an aerodynamic advantage. The rules say you can\u2019t wear it down by more than 1 millimeter during a race.<\/p>\n

Vegas has an incredibly smooth track surface, meaning teams can run lower ride heights without bottoming out and damaging this plank. Lower ride-heights mean more speed. So naturally, McLaren got aggressive.<\/p>\n

Post-race inspection found both McLarens exceeded the wear limit by the width of a human hair. Or a speck of dust. Or my patience during a Phish concert. For the full breakdown of the disqualifications, check out Luke\u2019s immediate reaction<\/a> and Madeline\u2019s follow-up<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Norris and Verstappen tangled in the Las Vegas GP (Patrick T. Fallon \/ AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Five scenarios for the championship<\/p>\n

We did something similar a few weeks ago, but we should try again for the sake of, oh, the entire thing being different now. With the Qatar GP this weekend, let\u2019s sift through some scenarios.<\/p>\n

Scenario 1: Norris clinches it in Qatar<\/p>\n

Probability: Relatively high<\/p>\n

This is what we\u2019re probably getting. Norris needs to leave Qatar with at least a 26-point lead (since Abu Dhabi\u2019s season finale a week later offers 25 points maximum). He\u2019s currently up 24. So he needs to outscore both Piastri and Verstappen by at least two points across the entire weekend \u2014 Sprint and GP combined.<\/p>\n

He can\u2019t win the title in the Sprint on Saturday, but he can in the Qatar Grand Prix the following day.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s tight.<\/p>\n

Norris essentially needs to beat Verstappen and Piastri on-track. Given that McLaren has had the fastest car for the second half of the season, this should happen. But Qatar is a Sprint weekend. If Verstappen wins the Sprint (8 points) and Norris takes second in it (seven), Norris loses ground before Sunday even dawns.<\/p>\n

The Vegas DQs prove that McLaren is susceptible to operational errors, even this late in the season. Norris needs a clean weekend. A single bad pit stop or another technical oversight pushes this on to the final race of the season.<\/p>\n

Scenario 2: It goes to Abu Dhabi<\/p>\n

Probability: Quite decent<\/p>\n

The one Netflix is hoping for<\/a>. This requires Qatar to get messy for Norris, but not catastrophically so. Verstappen is tenacious, and the Red Bull RB21 has often performed well in high-speed, limited-braking zones such as Qatar\u2019s sectors 2 and 3.<\/p>\n

Maybe Verstappen wins both sessions while Norris struggles to P3\/P4 in each, cutting the lead to 10 to 15 points. Or maybe Piastri continues his strong run of form at Qatar (his first sprint win was as a rookie there at Lusail, where he has 49 points and two podiums).<\/p>\n

A 15-point gap heading into Yas Marina on Dec. 7 is exactly the kind of stress Norris is trying to avoid.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Scenario 3: Verstappen\u2019s miracle comeback<\/p>\n

Probability: Still low<\/p>\n

Verstappen is impossibly good at this. But even if he wins both GPs and the Sprint \u2014 maximum 58 points, bringing him to 424 \u2014 it still doesn\u2019t automatically win him a fifth straight championship. He still needs Norris to fall into disaster, finish outside the top five and score no more than 33 total. Verstappen also needs Piastri to be strong but not dominant, and finish behind him but ahead of Norris.<\/p>\n

In other words, the reason Verstappen is so alive right now is because of the Vegas disqualification. Is that skid block issue a fundamental design flaw McLaren can\u2019t fix in one week, leading to a conservative (slow) setup in Qatar? Unlikely. Imagining Verstappen winning every remaining session isn\u2019t hard. It\u2019s his rivals stumbling simultaneously again.<\/p>\n

Scenario 4: Piastri\u2019s redemption<\/p>\n

Probability: Nah<\/p>\n

I\u2019m including this because it\u2019s technically possible, but I am not expecting it. Piastri is tied with Verstappen, but his situation is worse because he shares a garage with the leader.<\/p>\n

After the Vegas DQ cost the team a 1-2 finish, McLaren should be in full lockdown mode. If Verstappen is near the front, allowing Piastri to take points off Norris in Qatar could make both McLarens vulnerable. \u201cPapaya Rules\u201d might mean \u201cLando First\u201d at some point in the next two weeks.<\/p>\n

Basically, for this scenario to happen, Piastri would need to win both the Qatar GP and the Abu Dhabi GP (at minimum). Norris would need two DNFs or to score fewer than 10 points total. Verstappen would need to finish second in everything but never overtake Piastri. And McLaren would need to avoid using team orders to favor Norris.<\/p>\n

I think it\u2019s safe to call Piastri\u2019s championship challenge a blown opportunity.<\/p>\n

Scenario 5: George Russell un-eliminates himself, wins<\/p>\n

Probability: High, in the multiverse<\/p>\n

Using the time-bending abilities<\/a> we\u2019ve previously discussed.<\/p>\n

My vote: It goes to Abu Dhabi<\/p>\n

While Norris has the car to wrap it up, the pressure of a Sprint weekend combined with Verstappen\u2019s new life portends a mixed result in Qatar. Norris plays it safe (or, safer than he did into Turn 1 in Vegas) to protect his lead rather than risk a crash to extend it, meaning he leaves Qatar with a lead of around 18 to 20 points, dragging this circus to Yas Marina for one final showdown.<\/p>\n

But I want to hear from you. Vote for which scenario you think is most likely here<\/a>. We\u2019ll reveal which won on Friday.<\/p>\n

Now let\u2019s throw it to Madeline in the paddock.<\/p>\n

Inside the Paddock with Madeline Coleman<\/a>No radio, no probl\u2026 OK, some problems<\/p>\n

Alex Albon had to take an old-school approach to his Las Vegas GP.<\/p>\n

Williams reported early on in the race that it was experiencing \u201cissues with radio communications to Alex\u2019s car\u201d, and the pit board needed to be used to communicate with Albon. That meant he was flying solo and by instinct other than the one time each lap he\u2019d pass the board that would emerge through the catch fence behind the pit wall.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you think about it, no radio, no awareness of blue flags. (All) kinds of things can happen,\u201d he said later. \u201cEven just some little things like safety cars and debris on the track, kind of having to discover it myself.\u201d<\/p>\n

Given the Las Vegas GP is run on a street circuit at night, Albon said, \u201cIt\u2019s not ideal on a track like Vegas. It\u2019s a bit dangerous.\u201d He did suffer damage to the car, when he collided with Lewis Hamilton on the Strip, and he knew it, just not \u201cif it was safe to (continue to) drive.\u201d He was handed a five-second time penalty for the incident, which he served, but doesn\u2019t understand why. Albon eventually had to retire the car.<\/p>\n

A radio-less Alex Albon in Las Vegas! \ud83d\ude33<\/p>\n

The Williams driver had to resort to pointing to his damaged front wing after losing all radio communication with his team \ud83e\udef5 #F1<\/a> #LasVegasGP<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/C9jjlD8XZ7<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Formula 1 (@F1) November 24, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Outside the points<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfb0 Luke\u2019s deep dive on how F1 finally got Vegas right<\/a> in year three is worth your time. Spoiler: It stopped trying so hard.<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfc6 Madeline wrote about the process of designing the Vegas GP trophy, which involved blowtorches! The result is genuinely cool<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udceb Love Prime Tire? Check out The Athletic\u2019s other newsletters<\/a>.<\/p>\n