Week 12 picks<\/a> fared, along with my current season record.<\/p>\nOverall picks to win: 10-4 in Week 12 (125-52-1 for the season)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 4-4 (77-39-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 6-0 (48-13)
\nOverall to cover the spread: 8-6 (91-81-6)
Cover the spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 7-5 (76-66-5)
Cover the spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 1-1 (15-15-1)<\/p>\n
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.<\/p>\n
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)<\/p>\n
This is a very even matchup in most areas. The biggest difference could be in rushing offense. Last week, Jahmyr Gibbs showed the type of impact he can have on a game. The Packers could offset that to some extent with Josh Jacobs, but he\u2019s battling injury and may not play. Emanuel Wilson is good, but he\u2019s no Gibbs. Combine this with it being a home game for the Lions and I\u2019ll take Detroit to win and cover.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Detroit (Confidence level: 3)
\nPick to cover the spread: Detroit (Confidence level: 2)
\nKansas City Chiefs (-3) at Dallas Cowboys<\/p>\n
The Chiefs defense is the key to this contest. Kansas City is 6-1 when allowing 20 or fewer points, versus a 0-4 mark when giving up more than 20 points. Dallas is 0-3 when scoring 20 or fewer points, but the Cowboys have scored more than 20 points on eight occasions. Dallas has shown it can rack up that caliber of points against top defenses. That should be the case here and it is why I\u2019m taking Dallas for the upset outright win.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Dallas (CL: 3)
\nPick to cover the spread: Dallas (CL: 4)
\nCincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7)<\/p>\n
Cincinnati finally gets Joe Burrow back in the lineup. Unfortunately, Burrow won\u2019t have Tee Higgins to throw to. That still gives the Bengals a big pass game edge, but Baltimore\u2019s rush offense and overall defensive advantages more than make up for that. That would normally lead to picking Baltimore to both win and cover. The caveat here is that Cincinnati has a gargantuan special teams advantage. That changes my cover pick to Cincinnati.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Baltimore (CL: 4)
\nPick to cover the spread: Cincinnati (CL: 3)
\nChicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)<\/p>\n
The Eagles loss last week occurred because they turned the ball over twice and don\u2019t have cornerbacks capable of effectively covering elite wide receivers. Chicago\u2019s defense forces its share of takeaways, but the Bears don\u2019t have wideouts equal to CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens. The Eagles have a better rush defense by far. Philadelphia also has a slight special teams advantage and at home. That\u2019s more than enough to convince me the Eagles cover.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Philadelphia (CL: 5)
\nPick to cover the spread: Philadelphia (CL: 2)
\nSan Francisco 49ers (-5) at Cleveland Browns<\/p>\n
The 49ers have an overwhelming statistical advantage on offense. The Browns counter this with a huge edge in pass rush and pass coverage. The pass rush could be notable if Brock Purdy keeps throwing interceptions. Cleveland doesn\u2019t fare as well at stopping the run. That\u2019s a big problem when facing Christian McCaffrey. The Browns also have a deficit in special teams. The net of all these is close enough to pick San Francisco to win but give Cleveland the cover.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: San Francisco (CL: 3)
\nPick to cover the spread: Cleveland (CL: 2)
\nJacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans<\/p>\n
It wasn\u2019t that long ago that the Titans were arguably the worst team in the league. Tennessee is still in the midst of a six-game losing streak, but this club has shown significant improvement in many areas. That makes this contest more even, but Jacksonville has a big edge in the ground game. It\u2019s enough to allow me to pick the Jaguars for the win, but I\u2019ll take the home Titans for the cover.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Jacksonville (CL: 4)
\nPick to cover the spread: Tennessee (CL: 2)
\nHouston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)<\/p>\n
This game has one of the most interesting subplots in Week 13. Jonathan Taylor just had his second lowest rush yardage total of the season. He goes up against a Texans rush defense that has strong metrics this year but just allowed 143 rush yards against Buffalo. The winner of that battle is likely to win the contest. Indianapolis gets the benefit of the doubt given how well Taylor has played this year. The Colts are also at home, healthier and have a better special teams. I\u2019ll take Indianapolis for the win but Houston to cover.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Indianapolis (CL: 3)
\nPick to cover the spread: Houston (CL: 2)
\nNew Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (-6)<\/p>\n
The Dolphins were written off after a 1-6 start. Since then, Miami has won three of four, including a 30-13 win over Buffalo. The Dolphins ground game has been superb, and Miami\u2019s defense has five takeaways in its last two games. The Dolphins are also coming off of a Week 12 bye. New Orleans looked positively uninspired against Atlanta last week.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Miami (CL: 6)
\nPick to cover the spread: Miami (CL: 4)
\nAtlanta Falcons (-2.5) at New York Jets<\/p>\n
Atlanta doesn\u2019t have big stat advantages in this game, but the Falcons do rate better in every offensive category. Atlanta\u2019s defense can also lay claim to 23 sacks over the past four games. New York counters this with a penchant for keeping things closer than expected. That penchant isn\u2019t enough with a close spread.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Atlanta (CL: 4)
\nPick to cover the spread: Atlanta (CL: 2)
\nArizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)<\/p>\n
Arizona is getting very good play out of Jacoby Brissett. Don\u2019t let that dissuade from the fact that the Cardinals have terrible metrics in many categories. This would typically result in Tampa Bay being a very confident pick but it\u2019s possible that Baker Mayfield may not play this week. This provides enough uncertainty to lower my confidence in Tampa Bay.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Tampa Bay (CL: 3)
\nPick to cover the spread: Tampa Bay (CL: 1)
\nLos Angeles Rams (-10) at Carolina Panthers<\/p>\n
Los Angeles is the best team in the NFL right now. Matthew Stafford is playing the best football of his career (which is saying something for a future Hall of Famer). The Rams defense may be performing even better than the offense. Carolina is a well-coached team, but Sean McVay and his staff might be the top coaching staff in the league.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 8)
\nPick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (CL: 6)
\nMinnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5)<\/p>\n
This is the biggest mismatch on the Week 13 board. Seattle is the better team in nearly every stat category. A case can be made for the Seahawks to be the superior team even in those categories that are rated as even. Minnesota has issues with J.J. McCarthy under center, but the Vikings could end up starting a rookie quarterback this week, which makes the pick easy.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Seattle (CL: 8)
\nPick to cover the spread: Seattle (CL: 6)
\nBuffalo Bills (-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers<\/p>\n
This is one of the closest games on the Week 13 board. Each team has metric plusses and minuses on each side of the ball. The Bills have the advantage of a healthier roster. They also have a healthy Josh Allen, which is a big plus when compared to Aaron Rodgers dealing with a broken left wrist. Winning the quarterback category places my win pick in the Buffalo column. The other factors keep my cover pick in the Pittsburgh column.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Buffalo (CL: 2)
\nPick to cover the spread: Pittsburgh (CL: 2)
\nLas Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-10)<\/p>\n
This may be one of the blandest teams in Raiders history. Las Vegas had so many offensive issues that they fired OC Chip Kelly. Those issues could be even more pronounced if Ashton Jeanty is slowed by his ankle injury. Los Angeles isn\u2019t at its peak, but the Chargers outclass the Raiders in multiple areas.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 6)
\nPick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (CL: 4)
\nDenver Broncos (-6.5) at Washington Commanders<\/p>\n
The Broncos have advantages in only a few areas, but those advantages are vast. Denver has a much better pass rush, is far superior in stopping the run and has an overwhelming lead in pass coverage. This is an East Coast game, but because it is on Sunday Night Football, the Broncos will not have to deal with an early kickoff. I\u2019ll take Denver to win this one by a double-digit margin.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: Denver (CL: 8)
\nPick to cover the spread: Denver (CL: 7)
\nNew York Giants at New England Patriots (-7.5)<\/p>\n
The Giants are on a six-game losing streak. The Patriots are on a nine-game win streak. So, why isn\u2019t this point spread bigger than 7.5 points? It boils down to New York\u2019s ability to keep games close. The Giants have four one-score losses during this losing streak. Three of New England\u2019s last four wins have been by six or fewer points. The metrics suggest this close game trend will continue so I\u2019ll take New England to win and New York to cover.<\/p>\n
Pick to win: New England (CL: 6)
\nPick to cover the spread: New York (CL: 2)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"My Week 12 straight up picks went 10-4, bringing me to 53-17 over the past five weeks. It\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":310615,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[64,63,593,85,23371],"class_list":["post-310614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-nfl","tag-sports","tag-sports-betting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/310614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=310614"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/310614\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/310615"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=310614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=310614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=310614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}