<\/p>\n
HIA Chief Economist Tim Reardon correctly predicted a rate hold in July. Picture: Tertius Pickard<\/p>\n
ANALYSIS<\/p>\n
A shock inflation number could see \u201cegg on the faces\u201d of the RBA board today, with the central bank facing a \u201creal risk\u201d of inflation landing below its preferred target band. <\/p>\n
Today will see the release of both monthly and quarterly CPI data by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s the latter that the RBA will be focused on, because that is the preferred data set that Governor Michele Bullock informed us she was waiting for to get a better idea of the state of play for inflation.<\/p>\n
And the annual inflation reading will be of particular interest, said SQM Research founder Louis Christopher.<\/p>\n
MORE:Shock plan that could save 30k jobs<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cThe 30 July numbers will be all important,\u201d Mr Christopher said. \u201cAfter the last quarter, the 12 month CPI was 2.4 per cent. If these numbers come in as expected, we may be tracking down from that.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr Christopher said that quarterly inflation would need to come in at 1.1 per cent for the annual number to move in the wrong direction, but suggested this was unlikely.<\/p>\n All eyes will be on RBA Governor Michele Bullock after the release of quarterly inflation data. Sydney. Photo: Gaye Gerard<\/p>\n \u201cIf you look at the accumulation of the previous three quarters, we had 0.2 per cent in the September quarter, another 0.2 per cent in December and then 0.9 per cent in the March quarter. That\u2019s a total of 1.3 per cent,\u201d he said. \u201cAnother 0.9 per cent in June and we\u2019re seeing annual inflation drop to the bottom of the RBA\u2019s target band.\u201d<\/p>\n Of course, if the June number mirrored one of the first two quarters, which were before Trump tariffs and conflict in Iran, the RBA could have a new problem.<\/p>\n \u201cYou could have inflation around 1.5 per cent on an annual basis,\u201d Mr Christopher said. \u201cA read of 0.6 per cent or less will put inflation under 2 per cent.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n