{"id":311619,"date":"2025-11-27T06:31:16","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T06:31:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/311619\/"},"modified":"2025-11-27T06:31:16","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T06:31:16","slug":"nfl-dfs-showdown-picks-breakdown-for-chiefs-vs-cowboys-thanksgiving-day-11-27","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/311619\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Chiefs vs. Cowboys – Thanksgiving Day (11\/27)"},"content":{"rendered":"

NFL Week 13 gets underway with a trio of NFL contests on Thanksgiving. The middle contest features the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Dallas to take on the Cowboys at 4:30 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are listed as 3.5-point road favorites<\/a>, while the total sits at a sizable 52.5 points.<\/p>\n

Both of these squads are coming off impressive comeback wins last week. The Chiefs erased an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit and ultimately prevailed over the Colts in overtime. It moved them to 6-5 for the year, which still puts them merely 10th in the AFC standings. The Chiefs do have the 11th-easiest remaining strength of schedule, and you certainly can\u2019t count them out until they\u2019re dead and buried.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Cowboys fell into a 21-point hole last week vs. the Eagles, but they scored 24 unanswered points to secure the win. Unfortunately, their road to the playoffs looks a lot more precarious. They\u2019re 3.5 games behind the 49ers for the final Wild Card spot, so they might need to win out to have a real chance. Still, it\u2019s been a better season than expected in Dallas after the shocking Micah Parsons trade.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s dive into all the top DFS options for Chiefs-Cowboys.<\/p>\n

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NFL DFS Stud Picks<\/p>\n

We have three games to choose from on Thanksgiving, but this one might be the best for fantasy purposes. It has the highest total on the slate, and there\u2019s unsurprisingly plenty of high-end talent to choose from.<\/p>\n

That starts with Patrick Mahomes. He may not be as statistically dominant as he was in the past, but he\u2019s had a nice bounce-back campaign in 2025-26. He\u2019s currently second among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, and he\u2019s posted a positive Plus\/Minus on DraftKings in all but three outings.<\/p>\n

Mahomes had a nice stretch when Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice first returned to the lineup, but he has slowed down a bit recently. He had just 11.5 DraftKings points in a road loss to the Chiefs, and he followed that up with 14.34 DraftKings points in a tough road loss to the Broncos.<\/p>\n

That said, Mahomes bounced back with 21.08 DraftKings points last week, and now he gets one of the best possible matchups<\/a> vs. the Cowboys. Their defense has been exploitable all season, and they\u2019re 27th in pass defense EPA<\/a>. They\u2019ve allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs by a pretty wide margin, and Mahomes leads this slate with a +6.1 Opponent Plus\/Minus.<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, Mahomes tops all players in this contest in most key metrics. He owns the top median and ceiling projections, and he\u2019s first in projected Plus\/Minus<\/a> as well. His optimal lineup rate checks in at nearly 80% across the Captain and Flex spots in Sim Labs<\/a>, though he\u2019s projected to be a bit overowned at Captain. Still, it\u2019s tough to imagine building too many lineups without him. He\u2019s been too good, and the matchup is as good as it gets.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Dak Prescott is the other QB in this contest, and he\u2019s been nearly as good as Mahomes. He\u2019s fifth at the position in fantasy points per game, and he\u2019s posted a positive Plus\/Minus in seven of 11 outings. That includes two straight games with more than 25 DraftKings points, including an impressive 31.06 against the Eagles\u2019 stout defense in Week 12.<\/p>\n

Prescott will take the field at home on Thanksgiving, which is a split that he\u2019s historically thrived in. He\u2019s averaged a Plus\/Minus of +3.43 in Dallas, and he\u2019s scored at least 23.26 DraftKings points in four of five home starts this season (per the Trends tool<\/a>).<\/p>\n

While the Chiefs aren\u2019t an elite matchup, they\u2019re not all that daunting. They\u2019re 13th in pass defense EPA, and they\u2019re middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to the position. Prescott\u2019s -1.1 Opponent Plus\/Minus is nothing to write home about, but it\u2019s not particularly scary either. If he can succeed in a similar spot vs. the Eagles \u2013 a small home underdog \u2013 there\u2019s no reason he can\u2019t do it again vs. the Chiefs.<\/p>\n

Prescott trails only Mahomes in projected median and ceiling, and he\u2019s third on the slate in projected Plus\/Minus. He\u2019s projected to be underowned at both Captain and Flex, and no player has a larger gap between optimal Flex rate and projected ownership<\/a> in Sim Labs.<\/p>\n

Rice has stepped right back into the No. 1 role in the Chiefs\u2019 passing attack. He\u2019s posted a 26% target share since returning in Week 7, despite the fact that he hasn\u2019t been a full-time player. His route participation sits at just 71%, ranking him 66th among receivers. However, he\u2019s been targeted on 30% of his routes run, so when he\u2019s on the field, there\u2019s a good chance the ball is going his way.<\/p>\n

It also gives Rice plenty of room for growth moving forward. If he can pick up a few additional snaps in the coming weeks, his target share could easily approach the 30% mark.<\/p>\n

Rice has still managed to be extremely productive. He\u2019s posted a positive Plus\/Minus in four of his five outings, and he\u2019s had at least 23.2 DraftKings points in three of them. Ultimately, he\u2019s third at the position in PPR points per game, albeit over a smallish sample.<\/p>\n

Rice has plenty of appeal in this matchup, which is nearly as juicy for receivers as it is for QBs. Dallas has allowed the second-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers, and the Chiefs\u2019 receivers trail only Mahomes in Opponent Plus\/Minus.<\/p>\n

Pairing Mahomes and Rice makes a ton of sense. The two players have an elite +0.70 correlation<\/a>, so they make for natural stacking partners.<\/p>\n

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NFL DFS Midrange Picks<\/p>\n

The midrange tier features two receivers who could very easily be considered studs: George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. Pickens is slightly more expensive than Lamb on DraftKings, while Lamb is more expensive than any player but Mahomes on FanDuel.<\/p>\n

From a production standpoint, it\u2019s hard to argue against Pickens being the superior play. He\u2019s averaged 20.0 PPR points per game, which is the fourth-best mark at receiver. Pickens is also coming off back-to-back monster showings. He\u2019s had nine catches, at least 144 yards, and a touchdown in both outings, good for 32.4 and 32.6 DraftKings points.<\/p>\n

However, Lamb remains the team leader in target share. He\u2019s posted a 28% target share since returning to the lineup in Week 7, while Pickens is just slightly behind at 26%. Lamb also has the edge in air yards share and end zone targets over that time frame, so it\u2019s hard to argue he\u2019s not the superior asset moving forward.<\/p>\n

Both players stand out as solid options on this slate, but Lamb has better projections. It gives him the clear edge in projected Plus\/Minus on DraftKings.<\/p>\n

Javonte Williams got off to a rollicking start this season. He scored at least 19.0 DraftKings points in four of his first five games, and he appeared to be one of the biggest steals in season-long fantasy drafts.<\/p>\n

However, he\u2019s cooled off just a hair since then. He\u2019s still getting plenty of volume \u2013 he has at least 20 carries in back-to-back games \u2013 but he hasn\u2019t been quite as efficient. He\u2019s also failed to score a touchdown in three straight games, and he\u2019s posted a negative Plus\/Minus in four of his past six.<\/p>\n

The Chiefs stand out as an intriguing matchup. On one hand, their rush defense hasn\u2019t been particularly dominant. They\u2019re 23rd in rush defense EPA and 17th in opponent yards per carry.<\/p>\n

However, they\u2019ve still allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to the position. That stems primarily from the fact that opposing offenses don\u2019t run the ball against them all that often. They\u2019ve averaged -4.1 fewer attempts per game against the Chiefs than against other opponents, which is the third-largest differential in the league.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, Williams stands out as a solid yet unspectacular option in our NFL Models. He\u2019s best used in lineups when fading the Cowboys\u2019 passing attack, particularly Pickens. Those two players have a -0.48 correlation on DraftKings.<\/p>\n

Kareem Hunt has served as the Chiefs\u2019 starting RB of late, and he\u2019s provided some value in that role. He\u2019s scored a touchdown in four straight games, and he had 30 carries for 100+ yards last week vs. the Colts.<\/p>\n

However, Isiah Pacheco will return to the lineup this week, and it\u2019s hard to get excited about either option at their current prices. They\u2019ve formed a committee for most of the season, with Hunt having an edge in goal-line opportunities and Pacheco playing more on passing downs. Hunt figures to handle more opportunities in this outing, but both players are projected poorly.<\/p>\n

Jake Ferguson has had an interesting season for the Cowboys. He\u2019s seen plenty of targets (20% target share), and he\u2019s scored plenty of touchdowns (seven). However, his work has come almost exclusively around the line of scrimmage. He has just a 4.5-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT), which is low even by tight end standards.<\/p>\n

That means he needs a touchdown and a handful of catches to potentially return value. Even that doesn\u2019t necessarily make it a lock. Ferguson had four catches and a score two weeks ago, but he still posted a negative Plus\/Minus in that outing. That gives him plenty of bust potential without the corresponding upside we\u2019re looking for.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a lot easier to get excited about Travis Kelce. While he\u2019s clearly a player on the decline, he\u2019s still putting up solid numbers. He\u2019s third at the position in PPR points per game, and he definitely has the upside we covet in tournaments. He\u2019s gone for 90+ yards and a score in two of his past four games, and that level of production would be very welcome at his current price tag.<\/p>\n

The Cowboys haven\u2019t been quite as dreadful against tight ends as they have vs. other positions, but Kelce still owns a reasonable -0.6 Opponent Plus\/Minus. Only Lamb has a better projected Plus\/Minus in this tier.<\/p>\n

Worthy rounds out this price range, and he has not lived up to expectations in his second season. He missed the early part of the year with an injury, and he\u2019s been clearly behind Rice and Kelce in the pecking order of late. He\u2019s posted a negative Plus\/Minus in six of his past seven outings, and he\u2019s scored single-digit PPR points in four of his past five.<\/p>\n

Still, Worthy is getting opportunities. He owns an 82% route participation since Rice returned to the lineup, and he\u2019s also posted a 17% target share and 25% air yards share. Those are solid figures for this price range.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s also coming off eight targets last week, which was his top figure since Rice joined the rotation. His price tag has dipped significantly since the start of the year, so there\u2019s some buy-low appeal here in an elite matchup.<\/p>\n

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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks<\/p>\n

Defenses & Kickers \u2013 These options are always in play in the single-game format. Unsurprisingly, the kickers stand out as the better values in a game with a high total.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Hollywood Brown ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) \u2013 Brown\u2019s role has shrunk tremendously as the team has gotten healthier. He managed to stave off regression with some big plays in recent weeks, but he saw just one target last week vs. the Colts. His route participation sits at just 45% since Week 7, so he\u2019s going to need to be efficient with his opportunities to return value.<\/p>\n

Ryan Flournoy ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) \u2013 Flournoy failed to catch a single pass last week, but he still appears to be a player on the rise. His route participation was up to 49% last week, and he caught a touchdown the week prior.\u00a0<\/p>\n

KaVontae Turpin ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) \u2013 Turpin is a gadget player and special teams ace, and the Cowboys like to get the ball in his hands a couple of times a game. He has a decent floor for his price tag, and he has some upside if he can break off a big play.<\/p>\n

Tyquan Thornton ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) \u2013 Thornton had some big games while the Chiefs were shorthanded at receiver, but he\u2019s pretty much a non-factor at this point. He caught a 61-yard bomb two weeks ago, but that\u2019s his only catch in the past four games.<\/p>\n

Brashard Smith ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) \u2013 Smith was mixing in a bit on passing downs earlier this season, but that\u2019s not really the case at this point. He did manage to catch three balls for 31 yards vs. the Colts, but that was in a game where Mahomes threw the ball 46 times. That seems pretty close to his ceiling.<\/p>\n

JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2,200 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) \u2013 Smith-Schuster will seemingly never go away completely. His role has been slashed in recent weeks, but he\u2019s still a threat for a random target here and there.<\/p>\n

Malik Davis ($1,200 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) \u2013 With Miles Sanders on IR and Jaydon Blue banished to the shadow realm, Davis has taken over as the Cowboys\u2019 No. 2 RB. That said, Williams is handling the vast majority of the opportunities in this backfield. Davis would likely need an injury to have any value.<\/p>\n

Pictured: Rashee Rice
Photo Credit: Imagn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"NFL Week 13 gets underway with a trio of NFL contests on Thanksgiving. The middle contest features the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":311620,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[64,63,593,85],"class_list":{"0":"post-311619","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-nfl","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/311619","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=311619"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/311619\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/311620"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=311619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=311619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=311619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}