But Piastri\u2019s decline has also been surprisingly rapid. What started as a form slump has become a crisis of circumstance and misfortune that has prevented him from regaining the momentum.<\/p>\n
This weekend he has one last chance to keep his title hopes alive.<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1763806450_225_poster-fallback.png\"\/)
<\/p>\n
One big weekend could reset expectations. A poor one, however, will end them.\u2019<\/p>\n
PIT TALK PODCAST: McLaren left Las Vegas with no points after having both cars disqualified for running illegally low. With winner Max Verstappen now just 24 points behind Lando Norris is the drivers title at risk this weekend in Qatar?<\/p>\n
CAN PIASTRI SEIZE HIS LAST CHANCE?<\/p>\n
Paradoxically, Piastri was a beneficiary from his own disqualification in Las Vegas last weekend. What would have been a 30-point deficit has been shrunk back to 24 points, just under a clear race victory.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s small but precious breathing room for his last bid to win the title.<\/p>\n
If Norris wins the grand prix, it\u2019s over. If Piastri is outscored by Norris by two points or more, he\u2019s out.<\/p>\n
Outscore Norris over the weekend by any amount, however, and the championship goes to the finale in Abu Dhabi.<\/p>\n
\u201cThings definitely can still go my way, but not everything is within my control,\u201d he said. \u201cObviously I need to be there and put myself in the best position so that if things happen, I can capitalise.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s all I can try and do, really. I\u2019ll just try and have good pace, try and put myself in a good position and see what unfolds.\u201d<\/p>\n
That would require a turnaround from his current run of form that\u2019s seen him off the podium at the last six grands prix.<\/p>\n
But Piastri says that while the results have been poor, his pace has been underrated, particularly over the last two rounds in Brazil and Las Vegas.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think Austin and Mexico were very much a similar problem and similar kinds of things going wrong,\u201d he said, per Formula Rapida.<\/p>\n
\u201cBrazil, honestly, was not a bad weekend from a pace point of view. The crash I had in the sprint meant that we couldn\u2019t get the car in quite the window we had it in given all the repairs we had to do and the short time frame<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen you factor in some of the things that happened that weekend, the pace was actually quite good, so I don\u2019t think it\u2019s been an ongoing problem.\u201d<\/p>\n
Even Vegas, notwithstanding he\u2019d have been disqualified anyway, would have looked better had it not been for yellow flags in Q3 preventing him from completing his final lap.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe last couple of weekends I think things have looked a lot better internally in terms of how the pace has looked,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s more been mistakes and not being consistent rather than lacking performance.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think it\u2019s more about trying to be a bit more consistent and lock in the performance that we\u2019ve been able to get out of the car in the first part of the season and the last couple of races as well. If we can do that, then we should be in good shape.\u201d<\/p>\n
Even so, there\u2019s no doubt Piastri must perform at his highest level, be the best version of himself this year, to try to swing the season in his favour.<\/p>\n
\u201cA hunter has to be ruthless,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019ll try my best. <\/p>\n
\u201cNaturally if you do that, things start to look good for you and it puts other people under pressure, but you need to go out there and perform.\u201d<\/p>\n
Piastri’s family cheering him on | 02:58<\/p>\n
WILL NORRIS SEAL THE DEAL?<\/p>\n
Norris\u2019s lead may have been whittled down slightly by his disqualification \u2014 and Verstappen might suddenly be back in the mix \u2014 but he still gets his first championship chance this weekend.<\/p>\n
The title permutations are complicated slightly by the sprint \u2014 though mercifully, for his sake, Norris can\u2019t win the title on Saturday \u2014 but there are some criteria he must meet to claim the title in Sunday\u2019s grand prix.<\/p>\n
Norris will win the title this weekend if:<\/p>\n
(a) he finishes seventh or higher in the sprint and wins the grand prix;<\/p>\n
(b) he scores in both the sprint and the grand prix and finishes ahead of both Verstappen and Piastri each time; or<\/p>\n
(c) he leads by 26 points or more with any combination of results.<\/p>\n
He cannot win it if Verstappen or Piastri wins the grand prix, if he finishes behind both of them in the sprint and the grand prix or if he fails to score.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m excited for all of it,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019ve never been in this situation before, but I\u2019m excited. I think it\u2019s exciting for everyone.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think I certainly would\u2019ve liked to have had the 30-point gap instead of the 24 to whoever it is.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019ll focus on trying to get a good quali and have a good race and just take it one step at a time. Of course the earlier I can do it, the better, but at the same time that doesn\u2019t change how I do anything. I just need to try and win, as simple as that.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe goal is to win both races, and that\u2019s what we\u2019re aiming to do.\u201d<\/p>\n
Every driver on the precipice of this sort of history must face up to the pressure of being within reach of their dream. Handling it is the final hurdle of a championship campaign.<\/p>\n
Norris has been open all year about his mental trials and tribulations \u2014 he\u2019s publicly admonished himself when he\u2019s done badly, and recently he\u2019s been revelling in his sustained good form.<\/p>\n
Ahead of what could be his coronation weekend, he said he was trying to avoid contemplating his title chance.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m just not thinking of it \u2014 quite simple,\u201d he said. \u201cI certainly know \u2014 of course everyone\u2019s talking about it.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are a lot more eyes, there\u2019s a lot more pressure, people talk more crap.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s expectation, but I feel like I\u2019m already pretty used to it, and nothing changes.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019ll just go out and try and drive fast. It\u2019s as simple as I can make it for myself.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut really just not think of it \u2014 treat it as if there\u2019s 10 more races and I need to just win. That\u2019s what I\u2019ll try and do.\u201d<\/p>\n
Explaining the McLaren disqualification | 04:57<\/p>\n
WILL McLAREN BE AFFECTED BY DOUBLE DSQ?<\/p>\n
Norris\u2019s first championship chance takes place in the shadow of McLaren\u2019s double disqualification in Las Vegas last weekend, where both cars were found to have worn down the skid blocks in the plank \u2014 the parts of the car that control ride height \u2014 beyond what\u2019s allowed in the rules.<\/p>\n
There have since been reports that McLaren has been on the limit for plank wear at previous rounds, including in Brazil, where Norris won both the sprint and the race from pole.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s led to some speculation that McLaren is pushing harder than it otherwise would at this stage of the season in a bid to shut Verstappen out of the title picture.<\/p>\n
Red Bull Racing got on a roll shortly after the mid-season break thanks in part to its steady stream of upgrades. McLaren switched off development for this year\u2019s car long ago and therefore has had its ability to respond limited.<\/p>\n
If that\u2019s true, it inevitably leads to questions about where McLaren will sit in the competitive order for the final two rounds of the year and especially in Qatar this weekend.<\/p>\n
McLaren, however, denies that there\u2019ll be any knock-on effect from its Vegas disqualification.<\/p>\n
In a length explanation ahead of this weekend\u2019s race, McLaren principal Andrea Stella said that the problems of last weekend weren\u2019t related to an excess of aggression but rather a fundamental set-up problem.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe specific cause that led to the situation was the unexpected occurrence of extensive porpoising,\u201d he said, referring to the aerodynamic phenomenon that causes a car to bounce against the ground.<\/p>\n
\u201cBased on the data we had acquired in practice, we do not believe we took excessive risks in terms of ride height.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe also added a safety margin for qualifying and the race compared to practice in terms of clearance to the ground. However, the safety margin was negated by the unexpected onset of the large vertical oscillations, which caused the car to touch the ground.\u201d<\/p>\n
In other words, the cars weren\u2019t running too low. The damage was done by the floor being slammed into the track surface too often and too violently.<\/p>\n
In fact Norris has alluded to the problem being that the team left too much margin after the disrupted practice sessions, putting the car outside its normal operating window and triggering the bouncing.<\/p>\n
Given the unique nature of the Vegas track \u2014 cold, bumpy, long straights and slow corners \u2014 Stella isn\u2019t anticipating a repeat of last week\u2019s set-up problem.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat happened in Vegas was due to an anomaly in the behaviour of the car, rather than it being the outcome of an excessive or unreasonable chase of performance,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Nothing to worry about, then, he says \u2014 but there\u2019ll be a spotlight on McLaren this weekend for any sign of underperformance as the title battle reaches its climax.<\/p>\n
Kai Allen seconds from disaster | 00:54<\/p>\n
WILL PIRELLI\u2019S TYRE CALL CHANGE THE MOMENTUM?<\/p>\n
An unusual quirk for this weekend is Pirelli mandating a maximum number of laps for each set of tyres in response to concerns raised by last year\u2019s race.<\/p>\n
At most circuits the limiting factor with tyres is overheating, which is a chemical process. The tyres lose performance as they overheat, which eventually triggers a pit stop.<\/p>\n
In Qatar, however, the particular combination of tarmac, temperature and average speed means the limiting factor is physical wear rather than temperature. The high lateral load through the corners also increases the risk of structural fatigue.<\/p>\n
Last year both Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz suffered tyre failures that Pirelli put down to them having too little tread left at the end of their first stints.<\/p>\n
To protect against these factors, Pirelli has declared no set of tyres can be used for more than 25 laps this year. The only laps excluded from the count are those on the formation and cool-down laps.<\/p>\n
The race lasts for 57 laps, meaning a minimum of two stops will be required.<\/p>\n
Any driver who exceeds the limit will be disqualified.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s similar to the 2023 edition of the race, for which Pirelli set a maximum of 18 laps per tyre, though that year the problem was the shape of the kerbs \u2014 since replaced \u2014 was damaging the tyres. In practice it forced every driver to make three stops. <\/p>\n
While the lap limit this year is more generous, we can learn something from 2023.<\/p>\n
The maximum stint lengths meant drivers could push harder during the race knowing that they would have to pit before running into any overheating or wear issues.<\/p>\n
While each driver will make one fewer stop this year compared to 2023, it will still see the race run at a notably harder pace.<\/p>\n
Last year, by way of comparison, almost everyone easily made it to the finish with just one pit stop. Most drivers got 35 laps out of the medium tyre without issue \u2014 and their lap times increased through the stint, suggesting that there was no meaningful thermal degradation to manage.<\/p>\n
Why is this important?<\/p>\n
Managing tyre life is a key challenge in Formula 1, and this year McLaren has been significantly better at it than anyone else. It\u2019s been part of what\u2019s given the team such a big advantage over the field.<\/p>\n
But that strength will be neutralised by mandating every driver make two stops this year, allowing them to race as fast as they want without having to worry about tyre life.<\/p>\n
If the balance of power between Red Bull Racing and McLaren was already delicately poised, this could be a major boost for Verstappen\u2019s pursuit of a perfect weekend \u2014 and it could even bring Mercedes, which was quick here last year, into range.<\/p>\n
This season hasn\u2019t been short on late twists, but this could be another turn in the title narrative.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"One McLaren driver can win the championship this weekend, but it isn\u2019t Oscar Piastri. Lando Norris stands on…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":313460,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[573],"tags":[944,2095,13273,1724,64,63,11308,4971,2791,106485,177473,177469,177472,177476,173137,21779,817,177480,36333,177485,813,816,177471,841,14211,177484,1737,106466,2623,177481,177468,177478,825,177487,177486,177470,25612,2184,13756,2627,2041,2067,177479,177474,67663,36245,77365,16260,142957,18904,177467,177475,177483,174732,11298,85,35349,31298,118910,177482,177477,120032,175478,137623,2614,12000,2836],"class_list":["post-313459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-formula-1","tag-abu-dhabi","tag-america","tag-andrea-stella","tag-asia","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-brazil","tag-carlos-sainz","tag-central-america","tag-championship-campaign","tag-clear-race-victory","tag-control-ride-height","tag-coronation-weekend","tag-disrupted-practice-sessions","tag-double-disqualification","tag-drivers-championship","tag-f1","tag-final-hurdle","tag-final-lap","tag-final-shot","tag-formula-1","tag-formula1","tag-fundamental-set-up-problem","tag-grand-prix","tag-grands-prix","tag-knock-on-effect","tag-lando-norris","tag-lap-times","tag-las-vegas","tag-length-explanation","tag-limiting-factor","tag-managing-tyre-life","tag-max-verstappen","tag-maximum-number","tag-maximum-stint-lengths","tag-meaningful-thermal-degradation","tag-medium-tyre","tag-mexico","tag-mid-season-break","tag-nevada","tag-north-america","tag-northern-america","tag-operating-window","tag-pace-point","tag-people-talk","tag-pit-stop","tag-power-unit-problem","tag-qatar","tag-race-run","tag-ride-height","tag-rules-twist","tag-safety-margin","tag-set-up-problem","tag-skid-blocks","tag-south-america","tag-sports","tag-time-frame","tag-title-battle","tag-title-chance","tag-title-narrative","tag-title-permutations","tag-title-picture","tag-tyre-failures","tag-tyre-life","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-western-asia","tag-world-title"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/313459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=313459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/313459\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/313460"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=313459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=313459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=313459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}