{"id":319884,"date":"2025-12-01T04:45:22","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T04:45:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/319884\/"},"modified":"2025-12-01T04:45:22","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T04:45:22","slug":"rba-tipped-to-hike-interest-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/319884\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA tipped to hike interest rates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The weather vane of financial market interest rate forecasts has swung hawkish following stronger-than-expected CPI inflation prints.<\/p>\n<p>As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.antipodeanmacro.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Antipodean Macro<\/a>, financial markets are now pricing a potential 25 bp hike in the cash rate in 2026:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RBA-cash-rate-expectations.png\" width=\"660\" height=\"556\" alt=\"RBA cash rate expectations\"\/><\/p>\n<p>The Melbourne Institute\u2019s trimmed mean inflation gauge, which rose solidly again in November, didn\u2019t help the cause:<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MI-trimmed-mean-inflation-gauge.png\" width=\"660\" height=\"558\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"MI trimmed mean inflation gauge\"\/><\/p>\n<p>As illustrated by Fabo below, the MI trimmed mean inflation gauge remained above the long-run average in quarterly terms and, alongside the official ABS measure, paints a worrying picture for inflation:<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MI-vs-ABS-inflation.png\" width=\"660\" height=\"584\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"MI vs ABS inflation gauge\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>My money remains on interest rates staying on hold for an extended period. I also still believe that the next move in rates is more likely to be down, driven by an increase in the unemployment rate significantly above the RBA\u2019s optimistic forecasts, alongside a moderation of inflation.<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RBA-unemployment-rate-forecast.png\" width=\"660\" height=\"524\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"RBA unemployment forecast\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Regarding unemployment, the ANZ-Indeed stock of job ads fell another 0.8% in November, which follows weakness in other job ad\/job vacancy indicators:<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Australian-job-ads.png\" width=\"660\" height=\"559\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Job ads and vacancies\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Falling job ads at the same time as the labour force is growing at an elevated pace of nearly 40,000 per month points to rising unemployment.<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Monthly-labour-force-growth.png\" width=\"596\" height=\"433\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Monthly labour force growth\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>The RBA is stuck in the unenviable position of being caught between rising unemployment and rising inflation.<\/p>\n<p>As it carefully balances its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, the RBA is facing conflicting pressures on interest rates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The weather vane of financial market interest rate forecasts has swung hawkish following stronger-than-expected CPI inflation prints. As&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":283585,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":{"0":"post-319884","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/319884","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=319884"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/319884\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/283585"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=319884"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=319884"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=319884"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}