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ISM report shows US factory sector contracted in November<\/p>\n
America\u2019s factory sector shrank last month, according to a poll of purchasing managers at US firms.<\/p>\n
The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI report, released a few minutes ago, shows that economic activity across US factories contracted in November for the ninth consecutive month.<\/p>\n
Here are the key points from the report found:<\/p>\n
New Orders Contracting<\/p>\n
Production Expanding<\/p>\n
Employment Contracting<\/p>\n
Supplier Deliveries Faster<\/p>\n
Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers\u2019 Inventories Too Low<\/p>\n
Prices Increasing; Exports and Imports Contracting<\/p>\n
This pulled the manufacturing PMI down to 48.2% in November, from 48.7% in October, showing a faster contraction.<\/p>\n
Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a010.25 EST<\/p>\n NHS to pay more for drugs under new US-UK pharmaceuticals deal The NHS is to pay 25% extra for new drugs from the US under a new deal struck by Donald Trump and Keir Starmer<\/a> which will also guarantee zero tariffs on medicines exported from the UK to the US, my colleague Lisa O\u2019Carroll writes.<\/p>\n Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick has hailed the deal, saying:<\/p>\n \u201cToday\u2019s agreement is a major win for American workers and our innovation economy. We are strengthening supply chains, creating high-quality jobs, and reinforcing America as the world\u2019s premier hub for life-sciences investment.\u201d<\/p>\n Pharmaceuticals were zero-rated under a 1994 World Trade Organization deal but Trump has ignored this as part of his efforts to repatriate pharmaceurical manufacture and reduce costs of drugs to Americans.<\/p>\n But the two sides have now agreed the 10% tariff that would have applied to most exports from the UK under the deal struck by Trump and Starmer earlier this year<\/a> will not apply to pharmaceuticals.<\/p>\n At the same time the UK has agreed radical changes to its drug procurement and will increase \u201cthe net price it pay for new medicines by 25%\u201d.<\/p>\n Also, a so-called rebate system which requires the US to share between 23.5% and 35.6% of its revenues for branded drugs beyond an agreed annual gap will be reformed.<\/p>\n Under the new system the UK \u201crebate\u201d will be reduced to 15% in 2026 and \u201cremain at or below that level for the duration of the scheme\u201d.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a010.09 EST<\/p>\n Timeline: How OBR leak unfolded<\/p>\n Today\u2019s report also shows a timeline of how the OBR\u2019s flagship report accidentally went public two hours early.<\/p>\n It illustrates how the fiscal watchdog\u2019s staff raced to try to take the report offline again, once they realised what had happened\u2026.<\/p>\n 05:10 \u2013 the website host emailed OBR staff to confirm that server modification to accommodate higher website traffic at the time of EFO publication was complete.<\/p>\n 05:16 \u2013 website activity logs show the earliest request on the server for the URL https:\/\/obr.uk\/docs\/dlm_uploads\/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_202 5.pdf. This request was unsuccessful, as the document had not been uploaded yet. Between this time and 11:30, a total of 44 unsuccessful requests to this URL were made from seven unique IP addresses.<\/p>\n 09:00 onwards \u2013 the web developer set up webpages (no PDFs, Excel spreadsheets or other documents were uploaded during this stage) in draft form in the content management system, creating IDs for all the downloads to be used across the website.<\/p>\n 11:02 \u2013 PDF documents were emailed to the web developer, including the EFO document.<\/p>\n 11:03-11:53 \u2013 the other supporting documents and files were sent to the web developer. 25 files were to be published in total.<\/p>\n 11:30-11:35 \u2013 the web developer began uploading documents to the draft area of the OBR website (which was understood by all involved to be not publicly accessible), including the EFO PDF.<\/p>\n 11:35 \u2013 the first successful request to the internet address (URL) https:\/\/obr.uk\/docs\/dlm_uploads\/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_202 5.pdf was made. The IP address of this first successful request had made 32 previous unsuccessful attempts at this URL over the course of the morning. There were a total of 43 requests to this URL that were successful between this time and 12:07, from 32 unique IP addresses.<\/p>\n 11:41 \u2013 the first evidence online of the EFO being publicly available, via a Reuters news alert entitled \u2018UK OBR ECONOMIC AND FISCAL OUTLOOK: BUDGET TAX RISES RAISE 26.1 BLN STG BY 2029-30\u2019.<\/p>\n 11:43 \u2013 an OBR staff member was first made aware by a (non-Reuters) journalist that Reuters was flashing extensive forecast details.<\/p>\n 11:43 \u2013 OBR staff attempted to rule out the OBR website as the source. Not knowing that the URL for the EFO PDF was accessible even if known or guessed, the focus was on whether the relevant parts of the website had been pushed live accidentally, or whether there had been a leak of the document not connected to the publication process. OBR staff found no evidence via the front-end of the website that webpages had gone live accidentally.<\/p>\n Around 11:50 onwards \u2013 images of and facts from the EFO began appearing widely online from many people (suggesting the PDF had been widely downloaded, and\/or shared by other means after download).<\/p>\n 11:52 \u2013 senior OBR and Treasury officials telephoned each other to discuss the breach. These Treasury officials made OBR staff aware of the URL leading to the PDF of the EFO that was accessible.<\/p>\n 11:53 \u2013 OBR staff and the web developer attempted to pull the PDF from the website, and also to pull the entire website (e.g. via password protection), but struggled to do so initially due to the website being overloaded with traffic.<\/p>\n 11:58 \u2013 an email was received to the OBR press inbox from a Reuters journalist confirming that Reuters had published details of the EFO and asking for comment.<\/p>\n 12:07 \u2013 the EFO PDF was renamed by the web developer.<\/p>\n 12:07 \u2013 the EFO PDF appeared on the Internet Archive. This means it was, at that precise time, visible entirely generally on the open internet via search engines. It is assumed that this happened very briefly in the rush to remove it.<\/p>\n 12:08 \u2013 the EFO PDF was removed from the website\u2019s content management system, taking it offline.<\/p>\n 12:08 \u2013 the OBR Chair and staff drafted a statement setting out briefly what had happened and confirming that the OBR\u2019s website was the source of the error.<\/p>\n 12:15 \u2013 this statement was posted on the front page of the OBR\u2019s website, and on X (formerly Twitter).<\/p>\n 12:34 \u2013 the Chancellor\u2019s Budget statement began, opening with a reference from the Chancellor to the early release of the OBR EFO.<\/p>\n 13:38 \u2013 the Chancellor\u2019s statement ended and the EFO and supporting documents were immediately pushed live.<\/p>\n 16:29 \u2013 the online version of the EFO PDF was updated with a correction slip at the front, after approval of these corrections by the House of Commons Journal Office.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>OBR’s report in March was also accessed early<\/p>\n Worryingly, the OBR investigation has also discovered that its previous report, in March, was also acccessed early after being uploaded to the web before publication time,.<\/p>\n The foreword into the investigation says:<\/p>\n It is of concern that Professor Martin finds that it is very likely that the weaknesses that caused the premature accessing of the November 2025 EFO were pre-existing.<\/p>\n Indeed, it appears that the March 2025 EFO was accessed prematurely on one occasion, though there is no evidence of any activity being undertaken as a result of that access, and he concludes the most likely explanation is benign.<\/p>\n Professor Ciaran Martin\u2019s technical analysis explains that data from March shows that one IP address successfully accessed the document at 12:38pm, five minutes after the Chancellor had started speaking and nearly half an hour before publication.<\/p>\n There is no evidence at this stage of any nefarious activity arising from it, the report adds.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a009.56 EST<\/p>\n OBR non-executive members Baroness Hogg and Dame Susan Rice also admit that the error is the worst failure in the 15-year history of the OBR.<\/p>\n They say:<\/p>\n We are in no doubt that this failure to protect information prior to publication has inflicted heavy damage on the OBR\u2019s reputation. It is the worst failure in the 15-year history of the OBR.<\/p>\n It was seriously disruptive to the Chancellor, who had every right to expect that the EFO would not be publicly available until she sat down at the end of her Budget speech, when it should, as is usual, have been published alongside the Treasury\u2019s explanatory Red Book. The Chair of the OBR, Richard Hughes, has rightly expressed his profound apologies.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Ultimate responsibility for OBR’s vulnerability rests “with the leadership”<\/p>\n The foreword of the OBR\u2019s report into the EFO publication error also declares that \u201cultimate responsibility\u201d rests with its leadership.<\/p>\n The investigation has also warned that the fiscal watchdog would require more investment in its operations to be able to publish such important reports safely.<\/p>\n The ultimate responsibility for the circumstances in which this vulnerability occurred and was then exposed rests, over the years, with the leadership of the OBR. The OBR is a small analytical organisation with resources that reflect its size.<\/p>\n The twice-yearly task of publishing a large and sensitive document is out of scale with virtually all of the rest of its publication activities. Professor Martin notes that protocols for the EFO\u2019s publication \u201creveal a well-planned but significantly underpowered operation[\u2026]more akin to that used by a small or medium-sized business (which of course in size the OBR resembles)\u201d.<\/p>\n Responsibility for addressing this challenge by either changing the method of publication or substantially increasing the resources devoted to it rested over the years with the leadership of the OBR but also with the sponsoring department, the Treasury, and the Cabinet Office.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>OBR: Budget report error was “not a case of intentional leakage”<\/p>\n Newsflash: Britain\u2019s fiscal watchdog has released a report into how it accidentally published its economic and fiscal outlook ahead of last week\u2019s budget.<\/p>\n The Office for Budget Responsibility says that professor Ciaran Martin, former head of the National Cyber Security Centre who assisted with the investigation, is confident that the EFO was not deliberately leaked, and that it also was\u2019t due to hostile cyber activity by foreign actors or cyber criminals.<\/p>\n In the foreword to the report, OBR non-executive members Baroness Hogg and Dame Susan Rice write:<\/p>\n Professor Martin is clear that this was not a case of intentional leakage. Nor was it a simple matter of pressing the publication key too early. Those involved all believed that the protections against attempts to access the document early offered by the system were indeed in place.<\/p>\n As Professor Martin says, \u201cgiven the absence of any obvious premature disclosures of OBR documentation in the past, this was understandable\u201d. However, these protections were not in place. This is because, as Professor Martin explains, they were not applied properly and these weaknesses appear to have been pre-existing.<\/p>\n The outcome was that the protections did not work, and efforts to secure premature access were easy to accomplish because entering a predictable internet address gave access to the document.<\/p>\n [Reminder: This failure allowed a Reuters reporter to access the document, and report details of the budget around 11.40am, 50 minutes before Rachel Reeves began delivering the budget.]<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a009.58 EST<\/p>\n Silver at record high<\/p>\n With the markets jittery, the price of silver has hit a new record high.<\/p>\n Silver rose over $57 per ounce for the first time ever this morning,<\/p>\n As well as being used as a store of value, silver also has industrial uses due to its high thermal conductivity and a relatively higher electrical conductivity.<\/p>\n AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould flags that rumours that a trader may have been caught short of silver after betting against the metal, saying:<\/p>\n \u201cSilver is up by nearly 7% from Friday, which saw a truncated session in the USA, thanks to the reported power outage at a data centre operated by the CME. This confluence of events is prompting much chatter on social media about whether this really was an outage or a convenient break in trading on a day when liquidity and volumes were likely to be light across most markets and asset classes, thanks to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend in America.<\/p>\n \u201cIf someone really is short silver and struggling to find physical product for delivery to meet contracts, then this should show up pretty quickly in the inventory levels held across COMEX-approved warehouses, such as those managed by JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, and Loomis International, among others.<\/p>\n \u201cAs of Friday, COMEX was showing stocks of 456.8 million ounces of silver, a high number by historic standards, based on data that goes back to 2002.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a009.22 EST<\/p>\n US dollar weakening<\/p>\n Elsewhere in the markets, the dollar is weakening as investor anticipate cuts to US interest rates.<\/p>\n The dollar index has dipped by 0.35% today, with the pound now up 0.2% against the greenback at $1.326.<\/p>\n Investors are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will ease policy this month \u2013 a quarter-point rate cut is now seen as an 87% chance.<\/p>\n And looking further ahead, speculation is growing that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett will become the next Fed chair. Hassett, a Trump loyalist, would presumably be inclined to interest rate cuts which could undermine the dollar\u2026..<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Airbus shares down 6% on fuselage panel problem<\/p>\n Airbus\u2019s shares are on track for their worst day in eight months, as it confirms that it has (as flagged earlier<\/a>) found a problem with fuselage panels on its A320 planes.<\/p>\n Airbus has confirmed \u201ca quality issue affecting a limited number of A320 metal panels\u201d, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n The company says it is taking \u201ca conservative approach\u201d and inspecting all aircraft potentially impacted, even though only a portion of them will need further action to be taken.<\/p>\n Shares in Airbus are currently down 6.5%, which would be their worst biggest fall since April. Investors will also be reacting to the software problem discovered on Friday night, which is now largely fixed (see earlier post<\/a>).<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a008.37 EST<\/p>\n If the fall in cryptocurrency prices continues, it will cause problems for the new wave of bitcoin treasury companies who have been accumulating crypto assets.<\/p>\n The most notable bitcoin treasury company is Strategy (formerly Microstrategy) which has been bullishly acquiring Bitcoin using capital raised through equity and debt offerings.<\/p>\n Strategy\u2019s plan drove its share price sharply higher in 2024.<\/p>\n But the share price has been sliding this year, down 40% during 2025, and has been under pressure since bitcoin began slipping from its record high of $125,000 in early October, to back below $90,000 today.<\/p>\n Bloomberg reports that Strategy\u2019s CEO told a podcast<\/a> on Friday that the Bitcoin-buyer could sell the token if its mNAV \u2014 a ratio of enterprise value to Bitcoin holdings \u2014 turned negative.<\/p>\n \u201cWe can sell Bitcoin and we would sell Bitcoin if we needed to fund our dividend payments below 1x mNAV,\u201d said Phong Le, adding that it would be a last resort.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Britain\u2019s financial regulator is laying out plans to clean up the environmental, social and governance (ESG) ratings sector.<\/p>\n The Financial Conduct Authority, which is being given responsibility for ESG ratings, says it wants to tackle conflict-of-interest concerns and improve transparency.<\/p>\n It is explaining that it wishes to bring in clear, proportionate rules for transparency and governance, with proposals which will focus on four areas:<\/p>\n Increased transparency \u2013 allowing easier comparisons for the benefit of both those who use ratings and those who are rated.<\/p>\n Improved governance, systems and controls \u2013 to ensure clear decision-making and strong oversight and quality assurance.<\/p>\n Identification and management of conflicts of interest.<\/p>\n Setting clear expectations for stakeholder engagement and complaints handling<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Airbus\u2019s technical glitches may not be over, once it has finished updating the software on its A320 fleet.<\/p>\n Reuters are reporting that the aerospace manufacturer has discovered an industrial quality issue affecting fuselage panels of several dozen A320-family aircraft, citing industry sources.<\/p>\n The suspected production flaw is delaying some deliveries but there are no immediate indications that it has reached aircraft in service, the sources said, asking not to be named.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Markets fall in ‘downbeat’ start to the week<\/p>\n A risk-off mood is gripping the markets at the start of December, knocking shares and crypto assets.<\/p>\n Most European markets are in the red, with Germany\u2019s DAX down 1.2% and France\u2019s CAC 40 losing 0.55%.<\/p>\n The UK\u2019s FTSE 100 is less affected, down just 0.13%, with shares in mining companies rising.<\/p>\n The bitcoin price has fallen 5%, taking the largest cryptocoin down to around $86,650.<\/p>\n Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets, says it\u2019s a \u201clargely downbeat start to the week\u201d, adding:<\/p>\n Crucially, crypto has provided one area of particular concern, with the continued flush lower bringing financial stress for many that will also have positions across a raft of traditional assets.<\/p>\n The main piece of news for markets has come from overnight comments out of the BoJ, with Governor Ueda noting that the group will weigh up the pros and cons of a rate hike in December. While this provided a rare rise for the yen, it also saw yields spike with the 2-year hitting the highest level since 2008.<\/p>\n With a huge amount of Japanese funds invested abroad off the back of cheap local borrowing, the continued rise in Japanese bonds does raise risk of liquidity returning home to the detriment of international financial asset prices.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n The Bank of England has also reported that consumer credit growth slowed in October.<\/p>\n Net borrowing of consumer credit by individuals decreased for the second consecutive month, to \u00a31.1bn in October , down from \u00a31.4bn in September.<\/p>\n The Bank adds:<\/p>\n Within this, net borrowing through credit cards slightly decreased, to \u00a30.6bn from \u00a30.7bn. Net borrowing through other forms of consumer credit was \u00a30.5nb in October, down from \u00a30.7bn in September.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a005.28 EST<\/p>\n UK mortgage approvals dip<\/p>\n Britain\u2019s property sector did not shrug off budget uncertainty as well as the factory sector, it appears.<\/p>\n New Bank of England data shows that mortgage demand cooled in October.<\/p>\n There was a 600 drop in net mortgage approvals for house purchase in October, to around 65,000, the BoE reports. Approvals for remortgaging fell by 3,600 to 33,100, the lowest since February 2025.<\/p>\n Net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals fell back to \u00a34.3bn in October, after a rise to \u00a35.2bn in September.<\/p>\n A chart showing UK mortgage approvals Photograph: Bank of England<\/p>\n The BoE also reports that the \u2018effective\u2019 interest rate \u2013 the actual interest paid \u2013 on newly drawn mortgages dipped to 4.17% in October, down from 4.19% in September. That\u2019s the lowest since January 2023.<\/p>\n This morning\u2019s report also shows that UK companies paid down some debts in October.<\/p>\n Private non-financial corporations repaid, on net, \u00a34.8bn of finance during the month, the highest level of net repayments since October 2023.<\/p>\n Thomas Pugh, chief economist at audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK, says:<\/p>\n \u201cThe drop in consumer credit growth, mortgage approvals and net finance raised by private corporations suggests that households and firms were easing back on borrowing and major transactions ahead of last week\u2019s budget. This will probably have been even worse in November as speculation reached fever pitch, but given the lack of any significant tax increases next year activity may bounce back in December and into next year.<\/p>\n \u201cThe drop in consumer credit growth to \u00a31.1bn, down from \u00a31.4bn in September and well below the \u00a31.5bn six-month average was mainly driven by a drop in other loans, which would be consistent with households holding off from making major purchases ahead of the budget. However, the smaller increase in households saving balance suggests they weren\u2019t rushing to hoard cash.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat\u2019s more, the drop in mortgage approvals to 65,018 is consistent with the recent weakness in house prices reported in a number of surveys. Now that there is some certainty around property taxes and interest rates are likely to be cut again in December, the housing market should pick up. But given the budget will boost demand slightly next rather than subtracting from it, the Bank of England is unlikely to cut rates significantly further or faster than priced in.<\/p>\n![\"Lisa](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Lisa-OCarroll-byline-004.jpg\")
Lisa O\u2019Carroll<\/p>\n