{"id":330259,"date":"2025-12-05T22:13:15","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T22:13:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/330259\/"},"modified":"2025-12-05T22:13:15","modified_gmt":"2025-12-05T22:13:15","slug":"nfl-week-14-picks-against-the-spread-imagining-playoffs-without-chiefs-lions-and-ravens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/330259\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 14 picks against the spread: Imagining playoffs without Chiefs, Lions and Ravens"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Athletic has live coverage of Cowboys vs. Lions<\/a> on \u201cThursday Night Football.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

What a fascinating season. And by fascinating, I mean absurd.<\/p>\n

The Cleveland Browns trailed the San Francisco 49ers only 10-8 on Sunday when they decided to go for it on fourth-and-1 at their own 33 and \u2026 snap the ball to a tight end. Yeah, they lost 26-8.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been impossible to predict what\u2019s going to happen week to week, thanks in particular to the brooding Philadelphia Eagles, \u201cBack foot\u201d Bo Nix, the Pittsburgh Steelers\u2019 overhyped defense, the Bryce Young roller coaster, injuries, special teams breakdowns and all the fourth-down heroism. (Why does everybody hate kickers all of a sudden?)<\/p>\n

We\u2019re staring a postseason without Patrick Mahomes\u2019 Kansas City Chiefs or Dan Campbell\u2019s Detroit Lions right in the face. And if they lose Sunday, maybe the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens, too. How weird would that be?<\/p>\n

Joe Burrow reminded everyone how cool he is when he came back from toe surgery to shock the Ravens last week. Now, he gets the Bills in what he hopes is the next step in the Cincinnati Bengals\u2019 miraculous run to the playoffs.<\/p>\n

As for me, yeah, I hear the trumpets, but I would be happier about getting back to .500 on the season if I did a better job of picking the best bets. We\u2019ll just roll with Burrow, who happens to be 2-0 straight up and ATS in his career against the Bills.<\/p>\n

Last week\u2019s record<\/a>:\u00a010-6 against the spread, 2-3 on best bets<\/p>\n

Season record:\u00a094-94-6 against the spread, 31-34 on best bets<\/p>\n

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made.\u00a0Click here<\/a>\u00a0for live odds.<\/p>\n

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3) | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime<\/p>\n

Quinnen Williams has been the best defensive tackle in the league \u2014 with a league-high 21 pressures and great run defense \u2014 since the Cowboys traded for him. The Lions\u2019 offensive line has been so banged-up and ineffective that they tried to wheel in a retired guy last week, and he failed his physical<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Add in that 5-foot-9 Amik Robertson and the hobbled Lions corners will continue to struggle \u2014 last in the NFL since Week 10 in explosive pass rate allowed (21 percent) \u2014 against the hottest receiving duo (and among the tallest) in the league, and we get why this spread is so low.<\/p>\n

The pick: Cowboys\u00a0<\/p>\n

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

For all the talk of Daniel Jones\u2019 leg injury, the Colts are fading because Jonathan Taylor hasn\u2019t hit 100 yards in three of the past four games. The last time these teams met, in the regular-season finale last season, Taylor ran 34 times for 177 yards. The Jaguars\u2019 Trevor Lawrence is coming off the least-impressive three-game winning streak ever. I trust the guy with the broken leg more.<\/p>\n

The pick: Colts<\/p>\n

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-4) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

Cam Ward wins the quarterback matchup for the first time this season. Shedeur Sanders is 7 of 25 (28 percent) with zero touchdowns and two interceptions when pressured since taking over at QB for the Browns, while the Titans are 10th in the NFL in pressure rate over the past two weeks (39 percent of dropbacks). I have zero faith in interim coach Mike McCoy, though. In what might be a first, I am going to make a pick based on special teams.<\/p>\n

The pick: Titans\u00a0<\/p>\n

Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

I like to go against the grain. But not when the grain is sitting out in the cold too long. It\u2019s supposed to be 38 degrees at kickoff on Sunday, and Tua Tagovailoa is 0-7 in career starts when it\u2019s 46 degrees or colder. Never mind that he owns the Jets (6-0). We\u2019re going for three straight ATS with Tyrod Taylor and the Jets.<\/p>\n

The pick: Jets<\/p>\n

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

Burrow threw for four touchdowns, no interceptions and 590 yards in those two wins (one in the playoffs) over the Bills, but the biggest reason to take the points here is that the Bengals really worked on their run game while he was gone. The blocking has been crisp, and they\u2019re averaging 4.5 yards a pop the past three games, returning Chase Brown to the good graces of fantasy owners across the land. The Bills are 30th in defensive EPA per rush.<\/p>\n

The pick: Bengals\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Joe<\/a><\/p>\n

\n Joe Burrow is 2-0 against the Bills. (Mitch Stringer \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

The Buccaneers throttled the Saints in the first matchup, and we see no reason they won\u2019t again. Especially with Bucky Irving back. The Bucs\u2019 defense has struggled to get home despite blitzing so often, but that doesn\u2019t hurt them as much against bad teams.<\/p>\n

The pick: Buccaneers\u00a0<\/p>\n

Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Atlanta Falcons | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

Kirk Cousins against a very good defense. Don\u2019t like that. The Falcons just lost to the Jets and have also lost three straight at home. Don\u2019t like that. And Drake London (knee) didn\u2019t practice Wednesday. Don\u2019t like that.<\/p>\n

The pick: Seahawks\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

This is a bad pick. I am riding with the Steelers, a week after their home fans were booing and calling for Mike Tomlin\u2019s job. The defense will have some pride against a limited Lamar Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers will complete a pass past 20 yards. (Rodgers has targeted receivers 10-plus yards downfield on just 24 percent of his passes, the lowest rate of any qualified QB.)<\/p>\n

Rodgers isn\u2019t the only one struggling. Jackson is not only having trouble running like he used to, but also since Week 9, he has the NFL\u2019s highest off-target rate (18 percent of attempts), including a league-worst 35 percent on third down. Maybe this isn\u2019t such a bad pick. (It is.)<\/p>\n

The pick: Steelers\u00a0<\/p>\n

Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

The Commanders came through and covered the spread in overtime last week, playing hard for their coach and making some really clutch throws and improbable catches. The odds of Marcus Mariota doing that again \u2026 on the road \u2026 are not good. Plus, the Commanders don\u2019t get any pressure on QBs, so Justin Jefferson will get more than two catches this week.<\/p>\n

The pick: Vikings<\/p>\n

Denver Broncos (-7.5) at Las Vegas Raiders | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

The Broncos, who lead the league in sacks by a lot, failed to cover the spread a month ago against the Raiders and their historically bad offensive line. That might have been a true miracle. Denver is having trouble running the ball since J.K. Dobbins went down, but I won\u2019t be asking for another miracle.<\/p>\n

The pick: Broncos\u00a0<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Rams (-8) at Arizona Cardinals | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

After last week\u2019s loss in Carolina, Rams coach Sean McVay went on and on about how his team didn\u2019t overlook the Panthers. Which means they obviously did. Their defense should be plenty mad this week.<\/p>\n

The Cardinals have lost seven games by four or fewer points, but they are 1-5 at home and have scored more than 14 points only once in their past four games against the Rams. Since being traded to the Rams in 2021, Matthew Stafford is 6-2 against the Cardinals with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions, including 3-1 with seven TDs and one pick on the road.<\/p>\n

The pick: Rams<\/p>\n

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

No one could have predicted the Bears running the ball down the Eagles\u2019 throats. But one can guess that Caleb Williams will struggle against the Packers\u2019 defense. Williams has the lowest completion percentage (58.1) in the league despite throwing into tight windows at the lowest rate (10.6 percent). Ben Johnson really has done a great job getting the Bears to 9-3 \u2026 9-4 after Sunday.<\/p>\n

The pick: Packers<\/p>\n

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC<\/p>\n

The reason the Chiefs lost to the Cowboys last week was simple \u2014 they blitzed Dak Prescott 19 times, got pressure on seven of them (no sacks) and Prescott was 15 of 19 for 190 yards. I don\u2019t see C.J. Stroud having similar success \u2014 he was sacked 10 times and had two TD passes in two losses to K.C. last year \u2014 so I am taking the Chiefs at home, even though they are missing some key offensive linemen against the Texans\u2019 nasty defense.<\/p>\n

The pick: Chiefs<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC\/ESPN<\/p>\n

The Eagles are 4-4 ATS over the past eight games, and it feels like we haven\u2019t gotten them all wrong. I want to go with the Chargers at home, because Jalen Hurts doesn\u2019t want to run and looks disinterested at times. But Justin Herbert is going to try to play a week after having surgery on his broken left hand.<\/p>\n

The pick: Eagles<\/p>\n

Best bets: We can\u2019t pick against the Browns or Titans since they\u2019re playing each other. Give us the Packers and Buccaneers to take care of business at home, while the Rams and Broncos torch the Cardinals and Raiders, respectively. And we\u2019re taking Burrow and the Bengals in two spots, here and \u2026<\/p>\n

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): The Bengals came through for us in this spot at +260 last week, so we\u2019ll just let that ride on them +225 against the Bills.<\/p>\n

\u2014\u00a0TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Athletic has live coverage of Cowboys vs. Lions on \u201cThursday Night Football.\u201d What a fascinating season. And…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":330260,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[1258,1276,64,63,631,1261,1248,1252,1238,1234,1256,3055,1243,1255,1246,1237,1240,1250,3052,1263,1233,1239,1249,1235,593,1260,1241,1254,85,23371,1247,1253,1272],"class_list":["post-330259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-arizona-cardinals","tag-atlanta-falcons","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-baltimore-ravens","tag-buffalo-bills","tag-chicago-bears","tag-cincinnati-bengals","tag-cleveland-browns","tag-dallas-cowboys","tag-denver-broncos","tag-detroit-lions","tag-green-bay-packers","tag-houston-texans","tag-indianapolis-colts","tag-jacksonville-jaguars","tag-kansas-city-chiefs","tag-las-vegas-raiders","tag-los-angeles-chargers","tag-los-angeles-rams","tag-miami-dolphins","tag-minnesota-vikings","tag-new-orleans-saints","tag-new-york-jets","tag-nfl","tag-philadelphia-eagles","tag-pittsburgh-steelers","tag-seattle-seahawks","tag-sports","tag-sports-betting","tag-tampa-bay-buccaneers","tag-tennessee-titans","tag-washington-commanders"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=330259"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330259\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/330260"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=330259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=330259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=330259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}