When Mark Green announced his retirement from politics, it seemed to his Republican colleagues that refilling the seat would be an easy feat.<\/p>\n
Tennessee, and its newly vacant 7th congressional district, were firmly red strongholds.<\/p>\n
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump won the district by 22 points.<\/p>\n
The last time Green went to an election, almost 60 per cent of voters cast their ballots for him.<\/p>\n
Indeed, a Democrat had not been elected to represent the 7th district in more than 40 years.<\/p>\n
So when Matt Van Epps, a former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, was chosen as the Republican candidate for the ensuing by-election, he seemed a shoo-in.<\/p>\n
The race did not quite pan out that way.<\/p>\n
Van Epps did win when Tennessee went to the polls on Tuesday, but with a margin of just nine points, it did not come easy.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Matt Van Epps (left) may have been sworn in as Tennessee’s new representative, but his victory didn’t take shape as Republicans hoped. (AP: Kevin Wolf)<\/p>\n
A high-stakes election<\/p>\n
The special election, as it is called in the US, was the first for federal office since Democrats stormed to numerous victories<\/a> on November 4.<\/p>\n Self-described democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani had a blistering rise to New York mayor.<\/p>\n Trump’s gambit for more power could spark nationwide arms race <\/a><\/p>\n Texas is the site of a massive political showdown that could have a direct influence on US President Donald Trump’s ability to continue his agenda. Here’s a basic breakdown of what’s going on.<\/p>\n In Virginia and New Jersey’s governorship races, the Democratic Party increased its winning margins from the presidential election a year prior.<\/p>\n With the 2026 midterm elections fast approaching, pundits were tipping the Republican Party’s narrow majority in the House of Representatives was at risk.<\/p>\n All the while, Trump’s net approval rating had been sliding downward<\/a>.<\/p>\n Republicans saw Tennessee as an opportunity to change the storyline.<\/p>\n Enter: Aftyn Behn<\/p>\n If the November elections had left Republicans uneasy, Democrats walked away hungry for more.<\/p>\n The party was eyeing even rusted-on red areas.<\/p>\n Their woman in the Tennessee race was Aftyn Behn: a 36-year-old member of the Tennessee House of Representatives who described herself as a “pissed-off social worker”.<\/p>\n Aftyn Behn ran a campaign focused on cost-of-living affordability. (AP: George Walker IV)<\/p>\n Trump called her the “AOC of Tennessee”.<\/p>\n He meant it as a sledge drawing parallels between Behn and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s democratic socialist brand of leftism.<\/p>\n Behn, who supported democratic socialist Bernie Sanders in the 2020 presidential primary, focused on expanding Medicaid and lowering the cost of living<\/a> through initiatives like eliminating a state tax on groceries.<\/p>\n But the similarities between her and AOC cut deeper.<\/p>\n Ocasio-Cortez is one of the left’s most influential leaders, capable of mobilising young voters with a progressive platform \u2014 something Behn proved adept at, too.<\/p>\n “We have been building the coalition of the disenchanted,” Behn said at a Nashville rally.<\/p>\n “If you are upset about the cost of living and the chaos of Washington, we are your campaign.”<\/p>\n World reacts to Mamdani’s win in New York<\/a><\/p>\n The blistering rise of New York City’s new mayor, Zohran Mamdani, has captured global attention. So what’s going on and what does his win say about the American political climate?<\/p>\n Democratic political strategist Ian Russell said while a “more moderate candidate” might have performed better in a general election, Behn was the woman “for the moment”.<\/p>\n “What Aftyn is able to put together is a coalition of the pissed off \u2014 people who are not happy with what they’re getting out of Washington, frustrated with the direction that the country is going, frustrated primarily with what they’re seeing every time they go to the grocery store or look at their health insurance premiums,” he told political journalist Abby Livingston<\/a>.<\/p>\n Polling showed the cost of living would be a defining issue at the election and in that area, Behn was performing well.<\/p>\n The Republican Party was worried.<\/p>\n ‘The whole world is watching’<\/p>\n Mid-term elections always draw a smaller crowd of voters, and the unique timing of this race (just after Thanksgiving) threatened both candidates’ chances if they didn’t rally their supporters effectively.<\/p>\n “I’m very concerned that we could be caught with our pants down,” Republican representative Tim Burchett of Tennessee said during the campaign.<\/p>\n Republicans worried voters would not turn out for the by-election. (AP: John Amis)<\/p>\n As election day \u2014 and polling margins \u2014 drew closer, both major parties fell into a tit-for-tat competition.<\/p>\n Republican super political action committees<\/a>(PACs), which help fund political campaigns, tipped $US3.1 million ($4.68 million) into Van Epps’s campaign.<\/p>\n Democratic-aligned PACs gave $US2.3 million to Behn’s.<\/p>\n Former vice-president Kamala Harris appeared at one of Behn’s get-out-the-vote rallies.<\/p>\n Trump called in to several of Van Epps’s.<\/p>\n “The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they’re watching the district,” the president said on one call.<\/p>\n Donald Trump called into one of Matt Van Epps’ rallies through House Speaker Mike Johnson’s phone. (AP: John Amis)<\/p>\n Behn was acutely aware of the exceptional attention paid to Tennessee’s 7th congressional district, too.<\/p>\n “I never thought I’d see national attention devoted to a race like this,” she told the American Broadcasting Corporation<\/a>.<\/p>\n One week out from election day, polling suggested Van Epps might have been in trouble.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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