Next year, they will play an old-school, eight-game, four-test tour in South Africa and compete in the inaugural Nations Championship.<\/p>\n
Mark Robinson’s time with New Zealand Rugby is ending. Photo \/ SmartFrame<\/p>\n
In 2028, they will likely play at least one test in the USA, as they most likely will in 2029 and 2030 \u2013 years in which they will respectively host the British and Irish Lions and South Africa.<\/p>\n
The upcoming calendar<\/a> looks nothing like<\/a> the typical All Blacks annual schedule did when Mark Robinson<\/a> came into the job in 2020 \u2013 which is entirely deliberate.<\/p>\n The main achievement of Robinson\u2019s tenure is arguably the shift that has been made to more coherently align the All Blacks<\/a>\u2019 high-performance needs with New Zealand Rugby<\/a>\u2019s commercial imperatives and create a higher-value fixture list that is supported by a stronger marketing narrative.<\/p>\n Under Robinson, there has been a more comprehensive strategic plan built around where the All Blacks play in the world and how New Zealand Rugby (NZR) capitalises on that commercially \u2013 both in the short term around gate revenue, and in the longer-term campaign to win new sponsorship partners, fans and build brand exposure.<\/p>\n The recent test against Ireland in Chicago<\/a> was a prime example of how much more comprehensive NZR is now at cashing in \u2013 with the match-day revenue from the Soldier Field encounter netting an estimated $6 million, which compares with the circa $3m that was made in 2016 when the All Blacks played at the same venue against the same opponent.<\/p>\n The other key difference in 2025 compared with 2016<\/a> was how much better NZR was at promoting the All Blacks in Chicago and how much more consideration was given to servicing existing sponsors and wooing new ones.<\/p>\n This co-ordinated, well-planned approach even included NZR paying to take select journalists to Chicago \u2013 the Herald was represented by Media Insider\u2019s Shayne Currie<\/a> \u2013 giving unique interview access to key personnel.<\/p>\n The proof that this strategic international positioning of the All Blacks is starting to work can be seen in the growth of sponsorship revenue between 2020 and 2024.<\/p>\n NZR\u2019s annual income from sponsorships in 2020 was $72m \u2013 in 2024, it was $125m and is expected to be higher again in 2025.<\/p>\n And those numbers are higher because international brands such as Toyota, Gallagher Insurance<\/a>, Taisho and SAP have been locked into agreements, with more Japanese partners expected to be secured early next year.<\/p>\n The expectation is that the next five years will also deliver a lift in match-day revenue. Next year, the All Blacks will only play four home fixtures (France, Italy, Ireland and Australia), but the Greatest Rivalry tour to South Africa will operate as a 50:50 revenue share (and the fourth test will be played at a yet-to-be-determined major European venue), while the finals weekend of the Nations Championship (at Twickenham) is also being played under a revenue-sharing agreement.<\/p>\n Reducing the number of games played in New Zealand to take the All Blacks to larger, offshore venues will ultimately yield higher financial returns.<\/p>\n \u201cI think developing presence in key markets,\u201d Robinson says when asked why NZR has been better able to commercialise the All Blacks.<\/p>\n \u201cJapan is definitely one that has worked as it relates to new fans and partnerships.<\/p>\n \u201cGoing back there regularly \u2013 being strategic and more long-term in our thinking and going back there regularly every year with different fixtures.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are starting to see signs of that in the US. I would package that all up in that revenue-generation, global partnerships, emerging markets, new fandom [space].<\/p>\n \u201cThe other thing that I am pleased with is the work we have done on the new calendar \u2013 I think over the next five years, fans would have to look at that and say that is an amazing schedule of rugby.<\/p>\n \u201cWe initiated a lot of the work around the women\u2019s Lions, which will be a unique tour. The Greatest Rivalry \u2013 the jury might be out on some aspects of it, but we think it is a cool concept and I can\u2019t comment on the commercials, but there have been stories in the UK speculating on the size of the broadcast support out of the UK for that tournament.\u201d<\/p>\n Is it short-term gain for long-term pain?<\/p>\n If there is both a criticism and concern about Robinson\u2019s efforts to use globalisation of the All Blacks as the preferred route to more effective commercialisation, it is that he has perhaps chosen short-term gain over long-term stability for the wider Pacific rugby region.<\/p>\n The Greatest Rivalry tour is a nostalgic concept that will have enormous fan support. But it has been rammed into the calendar at the expense of the Rugby Championship in 2026 and 2030 and there is a danger, having been sidelined the way it has, that interest in and credibility of the Southern Hemisphere\u2019s showpiece tournament collapses over the next five years.<\/p>\n The double danger is that the Greatest Rivalry\u2019s value is built on its rarity and nostalgic qualities, two factors that will be eroded if it becomes a staple of the calendar.<\/p>\n It\u2019s also gone largely unnoticed that in the last five years, Tonga, but more specifically Samoa, have ceased to be any kind of international force, with the latter qualifying for the 2027 World Cup as the 24th team courtesy of a draw with Belgium.<\/p>\n Robinson can\u2019t be held responsible for the demise of Samoa and can point to the licence granted in 2022 and continued financial support NZR gives to Moana Pasifika as the single most significant measure taken to build a high-performance pathway in the Pacific Islands.<\/p>\n But it is equally valid to wonder whether the launch of Moana was nothing more than virtue-signalling by NZR and that its continued support owes its existence to the club being as much a pathway to the All Blacks for promising players as it is a route to the Samoan and Tongan national teams.<\/p>\n Robinson is right when he says fans will love what lies ahead in the next five years, but what about after that? Can New Zealand really keep creating high-value, ad-hoc, five-year calendars around the broadcast negotiation cycle?<\/p>\n And tied into this is a yet more fundamental question about how or whether NZR can extract greater broadcast value from its content slate.<\/p>\n Robinson came into the job knowing that in 2021, NZR would begin a $111m-a-year broadcast deal with Sky. He is leaving his role with NZR\u2019s broadcast deal between 2026-2031 likely to be slightly down on the $111m deal that was initially agreed with Sky in 2019, but slightly up on the revised agreement of circa $100m a year that was made in 2020 after Covid impaired international competitions.<\/p>\n The big difference between the new broadcast agreement and the existing one is that Sky is believed to have dropped its annual payment to around $80m, an estimated $2m-$3m is coming from TVNZ for the NPC rights, and the remainder is coming from international broadcasters as the rights to the Nations Championship are being pulled (ITV has reportedly paid $190m to buy the UK rights).<\/p>\n NZR\u2019s issue is that despite viewing audiences for All Blacks tests regularly being greater than one million people, the lack of competition in the media market locally has left it unable to extract fair value for its content.<\/p>\n Will Silver Lake shine?<\/p>\n The other great unknown about the Robinson tenure is the likely long-term impact of having agreed an equity sale to Silver Lake.<\/p>\n The US fund manager has paid $262m for what will be a 7.6% share of NZR\u2019s commercial assets. Currently that money operates as a loan \u2013 with a 4% repayment rate \u2013 and Silver Lake has the right to convert it to an equity stake<\/a> any time it now chooses.<\/p>\n The money paid by the US firm has enabled NZR to make a near $40m cash injection into the provinces, set up a $60m legacy fund for grassroots projects and put aside another $40m to pay operating and start-up costs for initiatives such as building a streaming and content hub.<\/p>\n The argument to say the partnership is working lies with the growth in total revenue, which is expected to be close to $300m this year \u2013 up from $270m in 2022.<\/p>\n That revenue figure is expected to jump significantly again in 2028 after NZR renews the naming rights to the All Blacks kit.<\/p>\n It currently receives an estimated $70m-a-year for selling the front-of-jersey space to Altrad, the back-of-shorts space to Gallager and training kit to Toyota.<\/p>\n The national body is hopeful that number will be anything between 30%-50% higher by 2028, believing that through the advent of its content platform NZR+ and its cohesive offshore playing and marketing strategy that it has a data set that will show potential sponsors that an association with the All Blacks delivers enormous brand exposure.<\/p>\n Robinson is a believer that this growth would not have been possible without Silver Lake\u2019s capital investment and contributed expertise.<\/p>\n The counterfactual, though, is that it was. NZR could have borrowed less money and hired greater expertise to instigate new commercial initiatives and that the danger of selling future revenue will only be fully realised when Silver Lake converts its loan.<\/p>\n The Herald understands that while the deal enabled Silver Lake to convert the loan after three years (that landmark was reached in June this year), it has signalled it\u2019s unlikely to do so until NZR is running at a profit (it has made significant losses in the last three years) and when there is more tangible evidence that it has positively contributed to revenue growth.<\/p>\n But when it does convert, its annual distribution from NZR will jump from its current $10.5m to an estimated $19m (total net commercial revenue, which will be circa $320m minus operating costs and government grants and currency exchange gains circa $50m).<\/p>\n The low performance in high performance<\/p>\n Earlier this year, NZR\u2019s newly appointed board made the decision to take Robinson off World Rugby\u2019s executive council and replace him with Greg Barclay.<\/p>\n The board members felt they wanted one of their own directors to have a presence in Dublin and, to a lesser degree, they wanted Robinson more focused on domestic affairs as they were aware that some provincial unions had questioned how often the chief executive was travelling overseas.<\/p>\n Robinson was sensitive to the criticism as he feels, with due cause, that he\u2019s played an important role in changing attitudes among his Northern Hemisphere peers around the future shape of the game as it pertains to law variations and the way it is refereed.<\/p>\n He was also an influential campaign manager of sorts for Australia\u2019s Brett Robinson<\/a> to be elected World Rugby chair and there is a sense that the sport is more unified across the two hemispheres than it has ever been.<\/p>\n So too should Robinson be credited with patching up key relationships with Sanzaar partners Australia and South Africa and there is no question that Robinson, affable and articulate, excelled as a diplomat and ambassador and positioned New Zealand well within the geopolitical rugby sphere.<\/p>\n But the cost of succeeding as an international statesman was that Robinson lost entirely the run of New Zealand\u2019s high-performance strategy \u2013 a price the country is still paying as all its national teams bar the Black Ferns Sevens are not performing at recent historical standards.<\/p>\n There was flawed decision-making around appointment processes, a culture of commissioning endless reviews that were rarely acted upon and a blind eye turned to untenable conflicts of interest and constant board leaks.<\/p>\n Having previously been the most stable job market in world rugby, New Zealand has seen four assistant All Blacks coaches either be fired or mutually leave in the last three years.<\/p>\n