![\"US](\"https:\/\/d1-invdn-com.investing.com\/content\/pic6cccf27b1f230a6fb4d57491942b45ec.png\" "\\"US")
<\/p>\nThe government\u2019s second-quarter report scheduled for later this month is still on track to post a moderate recovery in output, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.<\/p>\n
Today\u2019s revised Q2 nowcast indicates a 1.7% increase, according to the median.<\/p>\n
The estimate is unchanged from the previous update on July 8. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to publish its initial Q2 GDP data on July 30.<\/p>\n
Yesterday\u2019s rebound in for June supports the nowcast by suggesting that economic recovery for the crucial consumer sector was relatively strong at the end of Q2.<\/p>\n
\u201cDon\u2019t count the American consumer out yet,\u201d Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in commentary on Thursday. \u201cThere\u2019s still a lot of trepidation about tariffs and likely price hikes, but consumers are willing to buy if they feel they can get a good deal.\u201d<\/p>\n
The second half of the year could be more challenging, however. A key uncertainty is how tariffs evolve following President Trump\u2019s Aug. 1 deadline for new trade deals. The question of what happens next revolves around how or if will change due to tariffs, and how the reacts, or doesn\u2019t.<\/p>\n
This week\u2019s consumer inflation report for June suggests that tariffs may be at an early stage of raising pricing pressure, which could persuade the Fed to maintain or raise rather than cut.<\/p>\n
US consumer \u2019s 1-year pace\u00a0picked up in June.\u00a0The rose 2.7% at the headline level vs. the year-ago level, up from 2.4% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics \u2014 the highest increase since February. Citing tariffs as a factor, \u201cInflation is going kick into a much higher gear in coming months,\u201d\u00a0said\u00a0Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody\u2019s.<\/p>\n
Michael Wolf, an economist at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, also expects higher inflation ahead due to tariffs. \u201cI think that higher prices are coming even though the macro-data, through May, has not reflected that yet. In a sense, that isn\u2019t surprising,\u201d he said this week. \u201cI wouldn\u2019t have expected firms to pass on the higher costs immediately. But as time passes, and as inventories dwindle, there is only so long you can hold out.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The government\u2019s second-quarter report scheduled for later this month is still on track to post a moderate recovery…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3356,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-3355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3355","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3355"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3355\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3356"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}