This note just dropped from RBC Capital Markets.<\/p>\n
The seasonally adjusted November data are mixed with enough in there for everyone, sprinkled with some of the usual monthly volatility.<\/p>\n
Taking a step back, the message largely remains the same. This is a labour market which continues to ease gently but remains healthy by historical standards and likely still slightly tight.<\/p>\n
Participation and emp\/population rates continue to moderate but are still pretty elevated, underutilisation is rising but well below the long-run average and, in trend terms, there remains ongoing monthly job generation.<\/p>\n
The labour market narrative is, perhaps, best captured by the gentle lift in underutilisation, which is a better measure of labour supply than just the unemployment rate.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It suggests a little more capacity in the labour market, which is helpful given ongoing demand for labour and the strength in the broader measures of earnings, labour costs and compensation at a time [when] core inflation is running above the ceiling of the RBA’s 2-3% target.<\/p>\n
With ongoing labour force supply and some moderation in trend employment growth, we continue to expect the UR to move to the top of a 4.25%-4.5% range for much of 2026 and likely test a little above that at times.<\/p>\n
Even with higher underemployment, this may not be enough to materially temper labour costs\/compensation and unless productivity picks up on a sustained basis, this will continue to challenge the return to sustainable within target mid-point inflation.<\/p>\n
November CPI on 7 Jan and Q4 CPI on 28 Jan look set to take centre stage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This note just dropped from RBC Capital Markets. The seasonally adjusted November data are mixed with enough in…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":341174,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2001,29217,166,2009,174,20024,5304,2003,2005,186,1605,43,160,6461,2010,1603,171,78777,2007,44,2006,5463,20611,5464,41884,2004,1996,41,39,42,40,1491],"class_list":["post-341173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-asx","tag-aud","tag-australian-dollar","tag-bitcoin","tag-business-news","tag-commodities","tag-currency","tag-dollar","tag-dow-jones","tag-finance","tag-finance-news","tag-headlines","tag-live-blog","tag-live-news","tag-live-update","tag-market-news","tag-markets","tag-markets-live","tag-nasdaq","tag-news","tag-nyse","tag-sp-500","tag-sharemarket","tag-shares","tag-stockmarket","tag-stocks","tag-tech","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories","tag-wall-street"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/341173","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=341173"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/341173\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/341174"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=341173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=341173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=341173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}