{"id":341625,"date":"2025-12-11T20:58:11","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T20:58:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/341625\/"},"modified":"2025-12-11T20:58:11","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T20:58:11","slug":"nfl-week-15-picks-against-the-spread-can-josh-allen-carry-the-bills-past-the-patriots","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/341625\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 15 picks against the spread: Can Josh Allen carry the Bills past the Patriots?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Athletic has live coverage of Falcons vs. Buccaneers<\/a> in NFL \u2018Thursday Night Football.\u2019<\/p>\n

No spoilers if you haven\u2019t seen the new \u201cSuperman\u201d yet, but it\u2019s been six months \u2026 and it takes a lot to kill Superman. Turns out it\u2019s not possible (and there\u2019s a cute dog) \u2026 which brings us to Josh Allen.<\/p>\n

The Cincinnati Bengals had him on the ropes last week, but they wanted to keep throwing the ball with the lead in the fourth quarter. And now, Allen\u2019s kryptonite, Patrick Mahomes, is all but eliminated from the playoffs.<\/p>\n

Cue the music.<\/p>\n

The first order of business in an Allen Super Bowl run is avenging an October loss to the New England Patriots. The Bills, like every other team other than the Los Angeles Rams, are flawed \u2014 they don\u2019t have any receivers Allen can trust, and they can\u2019t stop the run \u2014 but at least they have been busy tweaking and adapting since that first loss to the Patriots.<\/p>\n

The Bills run the ball well and have used play-action on a higher percentage of their dropbacks over the past two weeks (48 percent) than any other team in the NFL. Otherwise, Allen will complete short passes (his longest to a receiver Sunday was 17 yards) or take off running himself (78 yards against the Bengals, 12 touchdowns on the season).<\/p>\n

A win by Allen\u2019s Bills on Sunday would essentially end Patriots quarterback Drake Maye\u2019s MVP chances (Matthew Stafford is likely going to win anyway). And it would definitely help us finally get over .500 against the spread for the season, which might deserve some theme music as well.<\/p>\n

Last week\u2019s record: 7-7 against the spread, 3-2 on best bets<\/p>\n

Season record: 101-101-6 against the spread, 34-36 on best bets<\/p>\n

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here<\/a> for live odds.<\/p>\n

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) | 8:15 p.m. (ET) Thursday, Amazon Prime<\/p>\n

Baker Mayfield\u2019s shoulder must be worse than he is letting on, as he is coming off his fourth straight game with fewer than 200 passing yards \u2014 the longest drop in his roller-coaster career. But I can\u2019t roll with Kirk Cousins on a short week, especially when the Falcons\u2019 special teams crew is bad enough to screw up even a decent Cousins outing.<\/p>\n

Besides, Mike Evans is back for the Bucs. Mayfield ranked fourth in passing yards per game (256.5) and EPA per dropback (0.3) in the first six weeks; he was 23rd in passing yards (169.0) and 37th in EPA per dropback (-0.1) in the last seven games without Evans.<\/p>\n

The pick: Buccaneers<\/p>\n

Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

Pouring one out for the Positivity Rabbit<\/a>. I would never have picked the Eagles last week if I knew they were resorting to large inflatables in the locker room to cheer players up. Man, they lost to a quarterback Monday who was playing with a broken hand, had two fumbles and an interception while throwing for 139 yards.<\/p>\n

Now, the Eagles are averaging 16.2 points per game over the past five, and you want me to lay 11.5?!? Coming off a short-week, physical, overtime game on the West Coast? Are the Raiders that bad? I guess so. \u2026 Just hope Pete Carroll doesn\u2019t kick a field goal<\/a> down 14 on the final play.<\/p>\n

The pick: Eagles<\/p>\n

Buffalo Bills (-1) at New England Patriots | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

A couple of reasons I like the Bills besides the whole Josh Allen Superman cape thing: 1) The Patriots\u2019 offensive line is missing some parts since beating the Bills two months ago; 2) the Patriots miss defensive tackle Milton Williams (and nose tackle Khyiris Tonga) even more, as they are last in the NFL in run defense success rate the past four games, giving up 4.9 yards a pop.<\/p>\n

The pick: Bills <\/p>\n

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-9.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve been yelling how much I love the Texans\u2019 defense since July, so it\u2019s funny how often I pick against them. Hilarious. \u2026 This week, I hate the spot. Coming off wins over the Bills, Colts and Chiefs, the Texans are supposed to be locked into film of Jacoby Brissett and Bam Knight? The Cardinals just got blown out by the Rams and are due for one of their plucky close losses \u2014 seven by four points or fewer \u2014 especially if young defensive stud Walter Nolen, who returned to practice Wednesday, is back.<\/p>\n

The pick: Cardinals<\/p>\n

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve been riding shotgun while the Ravens have lost four straight against the spread, but we are ready to pivot now. Lamar Jackson is starting to move around better, and they almost came back to beat the Steelers last week.<\/p>\n

Everyone knows the Bengals are the worst in the world (yes, including other continents) at covering tight ends, so the Ravens\u2019 ridiculous $39 million Mark Andrews extension will look good for a day. Plus, Baltimore has dropped from 74.2 percent to 44.9 at converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns this season \u2014 and Santa Claus wears orange, as the Bengals have allowed TDs on 64 percent of opponent red zone drives (28th in NFL).<\/p>\n

The pick: Ravens<\/p>\n

\"Lamar<\/a><\/p>\n

\n Lamar Jackson, left, and the Ravens lost to the Bengals two weeks ago, but things could go differently this time around. (Ishika Samant \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

The Chiefs are tied for second in the league in dropped passes (24), but we think they can finally exhale now that they have been all but eliminated. And their defense looked great in the loss to the Texans.<\/p>\n

The Chargers, meanwhile, just lost yet another offensive tackle \u2014 they were last in the league in pass-block win rate and 31st in run-block win rate in Week 14 \u2014 and travel on a short week after a very physical, overtime win.<\/p>\n

The pick: Chiefs<\/p>\n

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-7.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

It\u2019s supposed to be 10 degrees with wind chill around minus-10 at Soldier Field. We\u2019ll lay the points, considering the 3-10 Browns just got run over by the Titans (who ranked 31st in rushing) and there is a huge coaching and quarterback mismatch.<\/p>\n

The pick: Bears <\/p>\n

Washington Commanders at New York Giants (-2.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

Jaxson Dart runs wild again, and this week it\u2019s OK, as the bad Commanders linebackers need Segways to be able to make plays. The secondary isn\u2019t good either, so the Giants\u2019 offensive line will give Dart time to make some throws downfield as well. The Commanders are toast, and not even Marcus Mariota can lead them back to cover the spread here.<\/p>\n

The pick: Giants<\/p>\n

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-13.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

The Jaguars have won five of six, and though overtime wins over the Raiders and Cardinals don\u2019t impress me much, you have to give them credit. The addition of Jakobi Meyers has been huge, giving the offense some consistency and freeing up Brian Thomas Jr. deep. Their defense is solid, too. This is the most the Jaguars have been favored by in a game since 2007, but I will wait until the playoffs for the clock to strike 12 on Trevor Lawrence and company.<\/p>\n

The pick: Jaguars <\/p>\n

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

The lowly Saints actually handled the 7-6 Panthers pretty easily in the first meeting, but I have no interest in backing a sweep \u2014 even with the trap line of 2.5. Especially when no one knows how Bryce Young will look from week to week.<\/p>\n

The pick: Panthers <\/p>\n

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

In a month, Daniel Jones went from locking in a huge, new contract to playing with a broken leg \u2014 turns out, that\u2019s not a great idea \u2014 to grandpa Philip Rivers walking in and asking him if he can have Jones\u2019 jersey number. What a brutal sport. The Colts were actually in the game against the Jaguars last week when Jones went down, but Jonathan Taylor fumbled and then was stuffed on fourth-and-1, and the rout was on. Sam Darnold and the Seahawks improve to 11-3 ATS.<\/p>\n

The pick: Seahawks <\/p>\n

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

The 49ers seemed to really enjoy their late bye week, and they have no intention of ruining their 9-4 march through injuries by napping against the Titans. Tennessee, on the other hand, might be a little satisfied coming off its second win of the season. The Titans have been walloped by the Broncos, Texans and Colts on the road by an average score of 28-9.<\/p>\n

The pick: 49ers<\/p>\n

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n

The Packers are smart. When Bears cornerback Kyler Gordon injured his groin in pregame warmups last week, Jordan Love attacked, finishing 7 of 7 for 150 yards and three touchdowns when throwing to slot receivers. And it was still a close game. The Broncos rank seventh in the NFL in success rate against pass attempts to slot receivers (51 percent), and their pass rush should force back-foot Love into some mistakes.<\/p>\n

Denver has won 10 straight, the past five by a combined 17 points. Only the 1986 Giants had a lower point differential (15) in a five-game win streak. They won the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n

The pick: Broncos<\/p>\n

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n

While on the topic of MVPs, can we get some odds that Jahmyr Gibbs will break the 12-year QB stranglehold on the trophy in the next two to three years?<\/p>\n

We were strongly considering taking the Rams and laying the points here, though, as Puka Nacua looks healthy again, and Kyren Williams and his Mini-Me, Blake Corum, have become quite the 1-2 running punch. But we looked it up, and the prideful Lions rank second in the NFL in yards per rush allowed since Week 10 (3.6). And \u2026 they have Gibbs.<\/p>\n

The pick: Lions<\/p>\n

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-6) | 8:20 p.m. (ET) Sunday, NBC<\/p>\n

The twists and turns this season \u2026 the Vikings are the first team to get shut out, then shut out an opponent in its next game since the 1992 Broncos. The Cowboys probably would have beaten the Lions last week if CeeDee Lamb didn\u2019t get a concussion in the second quarter. He was limited in practice Wednesday, but we are certain that free-agent-to-be George Pickens will bounce back strong after his effort last week was called out.<\/p>\n

The pick: Cowboys<\/p>\n

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET (Monday), ABC\/ESPN<\/p>\n

Aaron Rodgers, 42, threw the ball so well against the Ravens that he looked as if he had gone to Germany overnight and gotten some blood spinners. He was 3 of 3 for 121 yards on passes of 20-plus air yards, throws that were not part of the offense in the first 13 weeks. He said he just woke up feeling great \u2014 and what are the odds of that happening two weeks in a row?<\/p>\n

The Dolphins, meanwhile, have been consistent, rushing for 160-plus yards in four consecutive games for the first time since 1977. Mike McDaniel might be quirky, but he can sure draw up some run plays. Miami ranks among the top 10 in rush attempts (114) and rush yards (491) to the left, and Pittsburgh allowed a season-high 79 yards on nine carries to the left last week.<\/p>\n

The pick: Dolphins<\/p>\n

Best bets: The holy trinity of Mahomes, Allen and Jackson are easy money, as the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens take care of business and remind fans of the good ol\u2019 days. We would have taken the Bears here, but the weather makes that game a crapshoot, so we\u2019ll roll with the Buccaneers and Giants at home as the other two picks.<\/p>\n

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Rodgers wakes up achy, and the Steelers look like they did two weeks ago, while Darren Waller begins a storybook fantasy playoffs run and the Dolphins cash in at +155.<\/p>\n

\u2014 TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Athletic has live coverage of Falcons vs. Buccaneers in NFL \u2018Thursday Night Football.\u2019 No spoilers if you…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":341626,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[1258,1276,64,63,631,1261,1257,1248,1252,1238,1234,1256,3055,1243,1255,1246,1237,1240,1250,3052,1263,1233,1239,1231,1249,1242,1235,593,1260,1241,1262,1254,85,23371,1247,1253,1272],"class_list":["post-341625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-arizona-cardinals","tag-atlanta-falcons","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-baltimore-ravens","tag-buffalo-bills","tag-carolina-panthers","tag-chicago-bears","tag-cincinnati-bengals","tag-cleveland-browns","tag-dallas-cowboys","tag-denver-broncos","tag-detroit-lions","tag-green-bay-packers","tag-houston-texans","tag-indianapolis-colts","tag-jacksonville-jaguars","tag-kansas-city-chiefs","tag-las-vegas-raiders","tag-los-angeles-chargers","tag-los-angeles-rams","tag-miami-dolphins","tag-minnesota-vikings","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-new-orleans-saints","tag-new-york-giants","tag-new-york-jets","tag-nfl","tag-philadelphia-eagles","tag-pittsburgh-steelers","tag-san-francisco-49ers","tag-seattle-seahawks","tag-sports","tag-sports-betting","tag-tampa-bay-buccaneers","tag-tennessee-titans","tag-washington-commanders"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/341625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=341625"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/341625\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/341626"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=341625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=341625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=341625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}