{"id":3512,"date":"2025-07-18T15:57:10","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T15:57:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/3512\/"},"modified":"2025-07-18T15:57:10","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T15:57:10","slug":"2025-nfl-predictions-picks-3-opoy-wagers-to-make-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/3512\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 NFL Predictions, Picks: 3 OPOY Wagers To Make Now"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Geoff <\/p>\n

Geoff Schwartz<\/p>\n

FOX Sports Betting Analyst<\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/p>\n

The Offensive Player of the Year award in the NFL<\/a> has fallen into two buckets over the last generation of football.<\/p>\n

The first bucket is this: It has been a running back or a receiver, having an outstanding season \u2014 often on a winning team \u2014 like we saw with Saquon Barkley<\/a> last season or Christian McCaffrey<\/a> in 2023, or going further back to Cooper Kupp<\/a> in 2021 or Todd Gurley<\/a> in 2017.<\/p>\n

There has not been a repeat winner or back-to-back Offensive Player of the Year at these two positions since Marshall Faulk won the award three times in a row from 1999 to 2001.<\/p>\n

The second bucket has been quarterbacks who either also won the MVP, like Patrick Mahomes<\/a> in 2018 or Cam Newton in 2015, or Drew Brees in 2011, who was fantastic but a runner-up to Aaron Rodgers<\/a> in the MVP vote.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Over the last six seasons, it appears the voters have tended to favor the receiver-running back option.<\/p>\n

With these parameters, I like three options for Offensive Player of the Year.<\/p>\n

Derrick Henry<\/a><\/p>\n

Henry last won this award in 2020, so there\u2019s been enough time for voters to feel like he hasn’t won it too recently. Henry was incredible last season, and if not for Barkley, we\u2019d be talking about his 325 carries and 1,921 yards more often.<\/p>\n

Henry also added 16 touchdowns.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The reason more running backs haven\u2019t won this award in back-to-back seasons, or even won a second time, is durability. That has not been an issue for Henry, who\u2019s built like a superhuman. He\u2019s played in every available game for the last three seasons with nearly 1,000 carries. I do not see his production dropping off this season in Baltimore<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The only concern with wagering on Henry is his quarterback, Lamar Jackson<\/a>, taking away votes because of his individual success.<\/p>\n

PICK: Derrick Henry (+1600) to win OPOY<\/p>\n

NFL executives rank Joe Burrow above Lamar Jackson \u2014 do you agree? \"NFL<\/a> <\/p>\n

Joe Burrow<\/a><\/p>\n

I have to play this number for a quarterback who was arguably the best in the NFL last season. He played on a Bengals<\/a> team that didn\u2019t make the postseason because the defense was awful. Burrow completed 70% of his 652 pass attempts for a league-leading 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t expect the Bengals offense to slow down this season because their defense is still suspect.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Burrow has elite weapons around him, and I could see voters giving him this award if he\u2019s near 5,000 passing yards again. His Bengals team won\u2019t be good enough for Burrow to win MVP, so the reward of giving him this honor would be something voters would dig. This number is worse than Jayden Daniels<\/a>, Josh Allen<\/a> and Lamar Jackson.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If Burrow starts fast, this number is going to drop quickly.<\/p>\n

PICK: Joe Burrow (+5000) to win OPOY<\/p>\n

Patrick Mahomes ranked second-best QB behind Josh Allen \u2014 is he losing his grip? \"Patrick<\/a> <\/p>\n

Patrick Mahomes\u00a0<\/p>\n

Mahomes has an upgraded offensive line, a healthy receiving group (with a looming Rashee Rice<\/a> suspension), Travis Kelce<\/a> back and lots of pundits saying the Chiefs<\/a>‘ run is over \u2014 so sign me up for an angry Mahomes this season trying to prove the Chiefs offense still has it.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Kansas City’s offense was dead last in explosive play rate but fifth in success rate. That was due to the offense not having healthy receivers for most of the season. That is fixed with Rice and Brown healthy, plus the addition of Jalen Royals<\/a> in the draft and Xavier Worthy<\/a> in Year 2.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Mahomes is only two years removed from a 5,000-yard season. I think he will have a monster season, and if he does but doesn\u2019t win the MVP, this is an award he can claim. This number is too large to pass up.\u00a0<\/p>\n

PICK: Patrick Mahomes (+10000) to win OPOY<\/p>\n

A few guys I did not wager on but are worth a mention: Ja\u2019Marr Chase<\/a> could take votes away from Burrow, and it might be worth splitting that wager on Burrow to add some to Chase. However, I\u2019m leaning into Burrow here as the better story. Justin Jefferson<\/a> caught my eye, but I\u2019m not sure what his numbers will be with J.J. McCarthy<\/a> at quarterback. I also looked at McCaffrey, but I worry about the Niners<\/a> offensive line and his health.<\/p>\n

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.<\/p>\n

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!<\/p>\n

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