Even as Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson and the rest of the Washington Capitals soaked in the champagne-fueled Stanley Cup revelry in 2018, it was reasonable to expect that time would soon tear their team apart.<\/p>\n
Ovechkin was about to turn 33, an age at which many players start a steep, aging-induced decline. Carlson was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent. Core pieces like Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie were approaching the wrong side of 30. And everyone who needed a contract, including Carlson and breakthrough playoff performers like RFA Tom Wilson, had earned raises befitting Cup champions.<\/p>\n
Whether it was age or money, something was going to sink the Capitals and it seemed like there was no way around it. By 2023, Washington missed the playoffs and its decline was an accepted truth. \u201cWashington is in decline,\u201d we\u2019d already written in 2020<\/a>, making reference to the Capitals\u2019 \u201cinevitable demise.\u201d In 2023, we classified them as bottom-feeders<\/a>, and we weren\u2019t alone in that. Season previews indicated it was hard to see the Capitals as a playoff team, citing missed opportunities to aggressively retool the roster<\/a>.<\/p>\n But this is the story of how Capitals management, first led by Brian MacLellan and now by Chris Patrick, defied expectations.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re not naive to the fact that as guys get older, it gets harder in this league. They\u2019re great players but it\u2019s going to get harder,\u201d Patrick told The Athletic.<\/p>\n A deep, wide-ranging conversation with Patrick reveals that Washington\u2019s unique accomplishment is the result of unique collaboration. The Capitals\u2019 pro scouting department (led by Brian Sutherby) and analytics team (led by assistant general manager Tim Barnes and director of analytics H.T. Lenz) are integrated, without siloing and with direct communication between departments. This is not a case of analytics staff filing a report, hoping it gets read by somebody someday, or a scouting staff afraid to dig into the numbers that project a player\u2019s ability. It is the norm for analytics staff and scouts to seek each other out, arranging sit-down meetings to argue their cases about their own players and players the Capitals might acquire. \u201cWhat do you see that I don\u2019t?\u201d is a common question.<\/p>\n \u201cThey respect each other and they want to learn,\u201d Patrick said. \u201cOn the analytics side, they want to hear what the scouts see. \u2018What are you seeing in this guy?\u2019 Our scouts want to understand, \u2018Why does our analytics team like this guy?\u2019 based on what they do. It\u2019s a healthy debate.\u201d<\/p>\n Communication is only the tip of the iceberg in Washington, where there are other lessons to learn when it comes to avoiding \u201cinevitable\u201d rebuilds.<\/p>\n The Capitals\u2019 18-11-4 record does depend, in part, on Ovechkin \u2014 but a unique approach to team building has helped Washington get younger, keep a ton of its own draft capital and frequently buy low on top-end talent.<\/p>\n Washington added No. 1 goaltender Logan Thompson, No. 1 defenseman Jakob Chychrun and No. 2 center Pierre-Luc Dubois without giving up a first- or second-round draft pick. They\u2019ve made seven of their last eight first-round picks.<\/p>\n Thus, a top-10 team in the standings also has a top-10 prospect pool, according to Scott Wheeler\u2019s 2025 rankings. The Capitals also placed nine players on Corey Pronman\u2019s ranking of the top players under 23 years old \u2014 more than any other team.<\/p>\n So how did the Capitals get this close to the end of the Ovechkin era, whenever it comes, without ever needing a true rebuild?<\/p>\n 1. Looking where other teams don\u2019t<\/p>\n The Capitals\u2019 transactional highlight reel is well established. They acquired Dubois in 2024 for goaltender Darcy Kuemper after the Kings had paid Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari and a second-round pick to acquire him one year before that. Ten days later, the Capitals got Thompson from the Golden Knights for two third-round picks.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not that Kuemper hasn\u2019t been good in Los Angeles. He\u2019s fifth in goals saved above expected since joining the Kings, carrying a .920 save percentage across two years with his new team. It\u2019s that the Capitals have a comparable goalie in Thompson \u2014 who\u2019s third in GSAx in that same time period \u2014 and a second-line center that the league seemed to have given up on in Dubois.<\/p>\n And the third-round picks?<\/p>\n One was the Capitals\u2019 own pick. The other was one of two draft picks Washington got from the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2024 by trading veteran defenceman Joel Edmundson. (The Capitals also got a fifth-round pick from Toronto, which they eventually used to reacquire Lars Eller.)<\/p>\n So the Capitals picked up a No. 1 goalie, a No. 2 center and a depth forward for a No. 1 goalie and a third-round pick.<\/p>\n They got their No. 1 center Dylan Strome for an even better acquisition price in 2022 \u2014 free. Washington took a chance on Strome, then 25, after the Chicago Blackhawks decided not to give him a qualifying offer, signing him to a one-year, $3.5 million deal. He\u2019s scored 237 points in 276 games for the Capitals since then.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s take a look at the Capitals\u2019 top six forwards, top four defensemen and No. 1 goaltender through the lens of acquisition cost.<\/p>\n Forwards<\/p>\n PlayerRoleAcquiredDetails<\/p>\n 1LW<\/p>\n Draft<\/p>\n 1st, 2004<\/p>\n 1C<\/p>\n UFA<\/p>\n Chicago did not qualify<\/p>\n 1RW<\/p>\n Draft<\/p>\n 16th, 2012<\/p>\n 2LW<\/p>\n Draft<\/p>\n 91st, 2019<\/p>\n 2C<\/p>\n Trade<\/p>\n Darcy Kuemper<\/p>\n 2LW<\/p>\n Draft<\/p>\n 25th, 2019<\/p>\n A franchise player at No. 1 overall, three picks outside the top 10, a buy-low trade, and a UFA signing of a player whose previous team gave up on him.<\/p>\n The trend continues on defense and in goal.<\/p>\n Defence and Goaltending<\/p>\n PlayerRoleAcquiredDetails<\/p>\n 1D<\/p>\n Trade<\/p>\n Nick Jensen, 2026 third<\/p>\n 2D<\/p>\n Draft<\/p>\n 27th, 2008<\/p>\n 3D<\/p>\n UFA<\/p>\n 6 years, $5.75 million AAV, 2024<\/p>\n 4D<\/p>\n Trade<\/p>\n Erik Gustafsson, 2023 first (28th)<\/p>\n 1G<\/p>\n Trade<\/p>\n 2024 and 2025 thirds<\/p>\n Finally, the Capitals moved a first-round pick \u2014 except not their own. It originally belonged to the Bruins but was part of a creative three-team trade wherein Washington sent out top-four defenseman Dmitry Orlov and depth forward Garnet Hathaway and received first-, second- and third-round picks from Boston.<\/p>\n Overall, the Capitals\u2019 top four defencemen are Carlson, who they drafted back in 2008, and a series of players acquired without sacrificing their own first-round picks. Martin Fehervary, a 2018 second-round pick, sometimes slots into the top four, but the trend is clear: Ovechkin (40) and Carlson (35) may be freaks of nature, performing as they do at their age, but the Capitals have otherwise retooled their top six forwards, top four defensemen and top goaltender at very little cost to their own team.<\/p>\n If you like to geek out over transactions, this is where it gets even more interesting.<\/p>\n 2. What does arbitrage even mean?<\/p>\n Washington\u2019s staff is unique in its background. In addition to bona fides as hockey people, the Capitals\u2019 front office is full of people with a background in finance.<\/p>\n President of hockey operations Brian MacLellan has an MBA in finance and worked for an investment consulting firm in Minneapolis before joining the Capitals as a pro scout. General manager Chris Patrick has an MBA in finance, too, and worked in investment banking and private equity before joining the Capitals\u2019 player development. Barnes was a hockey analytics pioneer in the public sphere while working as an equity derivatives trader.<\/p>\n Not every hockey team would hire a financial trader to such an important analytical role, as the Capitals did with Barnes in 2014-15. There is a perfect storm of sorts, with MacLellan and Patrick sharing a portion of Barnes\u2019 trading background.<\/p>\n It pays off for Washington in the form of a story that makes Patrick chuckle and which reveals their approach to \u201carbitrage\u201d \u2014 a trading term which refers to the simultaneous buying and selling of assets, to take advantage of markets which offer different prices for the same asset.<\/p>\n Back when MacLellan was GM and Barnes was still a new hire, MacLellan brought a potential deal to Washington\u2019s hockey operations staff. Remember that the Capitals don\u2019t separate their pro scouts from analytics, so people of all sorts of different backgrounds were in the room as he detailed the theoretical acquisition.<\/p>\n \u201cTim, right away, goes to one of our scouts and says, \u2018Are you thinking what I\u2019m thinking?\u2019\u201d Patrick says. \u201cThe scout just looks at him. Then Barnesy goes into this 10-minute, very nuanced concept of trading for this guy, getting this guy, using terms like \u2018arbitrage\u2019 \u2014 all of these big trading terms \u2014 and the scout\u2019s looking at him like he has no idea what he\u2019s talking about \u2026 But Barny started with, \u2018Are you thinking what I\u2019m thinking?’\u201d<\/p>\n At this, Patrick pauses to laugh. \u201cWe\u2019ll still say that sometimes, when there\u2019s some sort of difficult or complicated concept. We\u2019ll look at each other and go, \u2018Are you thinking what I\u2019m thinking?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n Back to arbitrage. One of the Capitals\u2019 most frequent trading trends is to protect their first- and second-round picks, making their deals using mid-round picks instead. The other is making multiple incremental trades to increase the value of their assets one step at a time.<\/p>\n How do the Capitals always seem to have draft picks to work with? Pay attention to their trade trees and you will find several examples. They traded a third-round pick and a seventh-round pick to Montreal for Edmundson, for example, before getting a third-round pick and a fifth-round pick back for him from Toronto.<\/p>\n That\u2019s a small upgrade in assets and it took salary retention to accomplish, but rewind just a tiny bit: Washington could afford to send Minnesota\u2019s third-round pick to Montreal because it acquired that pick for Marcus Johansson in 2023 \u2014 the year MacLellan, Patrick, Barnes and company realized they were missing the playoffs and struck early to acquire assets.<\/p>\n