{"id":363944,"date":"2025-12-22T06:04:13","date_gmt":"2025-12-22T06:04:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/363944\/"},"modified":"2025-12-22T06:04:13","modified_gmt":"2025-12-22T06:04:13","slug":"new-zealands-biggest-house-price-crash-in-modern-history","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/363944\/","title":{"rendered":"New Zealand&#8217;s biggest house price crash in modern history"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>New Zealand house prices continue to fall.<\/p>\n<p>The REINZ House Price Index fell 0.3% over the past two months (seasonally adjusted), with economists describing the result as \u201crenewed weakness\u201d after a brief stabilisation earlier in the year.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/NZ-HPI.png\" width=\"660\" height=\"537\" alt=\"NZ HPI\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Compared to May, house prices are down by more than 1.2%.<\/p>\n<p>Home sales were weak in November, declining by 4.8%. November also marked the first notable annual decrease in sales volumes since June 2024, falling 5.7% from a year ago.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>ANZ economists noted that sales volumes have slipped below long\u2011run seasonal averages and that the usual spring rebound failed to materialise.<\/p>\n<p>The ongoing weakness in housing demand has come despite lower mortgage rates, illustrated below by Justin Fabo from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.antipodeanmacro.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Antipodean Macro<\/a>, following 325 basis points of official cash rate (OCR) cuts from the Reserve Bank.<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/NZ-mortgage-rates.png\" width=\"660\" height=\"567\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"NZ mortgage rates\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the supply side of the market continues to strengthen, with new listings creeping up for the third consecutive month and the stock overhang remaining at a decade high.<\/p>\n<p>Thus, the weak labour market and slow population growth remain the key factors constraining any improvement in demand, whereas the supply of housing remains high and continues to exceed demand.<\/p>\n<p>In pure dollar terms (i.e., not inflation\u2011adjusted), home prices are tracking 15% below the 2021 peak.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>However, home prices have fallen dramatically when adjusted for inflation, with real values now down 31.3% from their late\u20112021 peak. This decline marks the deepest real\u2011terms corrections in modern New Zealand housing history.<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/1766383453_960_NZ-real-house-prices.png\" width=\"660\" height=\"562\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"NZ real house prices\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Despite 325 basis points of OCR cuts, both home prices and sales turnover remain lower than a year ago.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Economists warned of further downside risks as interest rates potentially rise in 2026 and sales volumes fall.<\/p>\n<p>Wholesale interest rates have risen following the November Monetary Policy Statement, while confidence has fallen alongside sales volumes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"New Zealand house prices continue to fall. The REINZ House Price Index fell 0.3% over the past two&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":137,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":{"0":"post-363944","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363944","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=363944"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363944\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/137"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=363944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=363944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=363944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}