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It all leads up to the Australian Open, which begins a bit later this year on Sunday January 18, where for the first time since 2022 we\u2019re set to see both a local man and woman seeded.<\/p>\n
After finally breaking through to a home slam quarter-final in 2025, Alex de Minaur is trying to go even further, while two recent Aussie converts lead a talented and primarily young group of women\u2019s hopes.<\/p>\n
Plus, Nick Kyrgios is back. Again. And maybe for the last time.<\/p>\n
These are the big storylines heading into the year\u2019s first grand slam, plus the entire Aussie summer of tennis.<\/p>\n
Nick Kyrgios, Alex de Minaur and Maya Joint.Source: FOX SPORTS<\/p>\n
FEARS DEMON FALLING INTO TENNIS\u2019 WORST TRAP<\/p>\n
Last year, we said Alex de Minaur didn\u2019t need to get over a hump, but a mountain.<\/p>\n
The man knows how to climb.<\/p>\n
The Australian No.1 completed his grand slam quarter-final quartet by making the last eight at Melbourne Park in 2025, living up to his top-eight seed in the process.<\/p>\n
He ran into his nemesis, Jannik Sinner, in the quarters which (as it basically always does when they meet) ended his tournament but it was a success nonetheless. He became the sixth Australian man to go that far in his home slam at Melbourne Park.<\/p>\n
But the problem is the next step will be even harder to take.<\/p>\n
No Aussie man has made the semi-finals of the Australian Open since his mentor Lleyton Hewitt\u2019s run to the 2005 final, and de Minaur has never been that far in any slam, with six quarter-final defeats to his name.<\/p>\n
His last slam appearance, the US Open, was arguably his most frustrating. He failed to capitalise on the draw opening up, instead losing a four-set quarter-final to Canada\u2019s Felix Auger-Aliassime (who\u2019s admittedly finding career-best form at the moment).<\/p>\n
In the process de Minaur continued the unfortunate trend which will see most Aussies count him out of realistic contention for the Melbourne Park title.<\/p>\n
Keep in mind that from the start of Wimbledon until the end of the 2025 season, de Minaur played 42 matches and won 30 of them – a win rate over 71%.<\/p>\n
And those losses primarily came against the sport\u2019s best – thrice against Sinner, once each to Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, and only a couple against guys he absolutely should\u2019ve beaten but had a bad day.<\/p>\n
Alex de Minaur lost, again, to Jannik Sinner in the 2025 Australian Open quarter-finals. Picture: Michael KleinSource: News Corp Australia<\/p>\n
Following his fourth-round Wimbledon loss to Djokovic, when the hard court season began, de Minaur made the quarter-finals or better of eight different events – Washington, Toronto, the US Open, Beijing, Shanghai, Vienna, Paris and the Tour Finals.<\/p>\n
Of course, you could also say that\u2019s also the problem, because de Minaur only made one final (def Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Washington).<\/p>\n
He is the nearly man.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s of incredible merit to be one of the 10 best tennis players on the planet. But de Minaur hovers between sixth and 10th, depending on the ebbs and flows of form and injury.<\/p>\n
For the purposes of gaining the respect of the mainstream Australian sporting public this is arguably the worst place you could be. The wider view is that de Minaur will never be good enough to win a slam, and the odds are against him winning any individual tournament, especially if one of Sinner or Alcaraz is playing in it.<\/p>\n
Perhaps fittingly given De Minaur spent most of his childhood in Spain, he is almost becoming this generation\u2019s David Ferrer.<\/p>\n
Ferrer, the former world No.3, had the misfortune (which many shared) of peaking at the same time as Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.<\/p>\n
He made 11 slam quarter-finals, five slam semi-finals and the 2013 French Open final, including a two and a half year stretch where he made the last eight of every slam… but he never won the big one. Always contending, but never truly in contention.<\/p>\n
The more knowledgeable tennis fan recognises how incredibly tricky it has been for de Minaur to get to his current level. He has genuinely and noticeably improved his game over the last few years, to the point where he should be expecting to make grand slam quarter-finals consistently.<\/p>\n
And if a draw opens up for him, or a top-seeded rival has an unfortunate injury, or if an opponent just has a bad night at the worst possible time, de Minaur is good enough to capitalise.<\/p>\n
The Tennis Abstract Elo ratings currently have de Minaur No.6 in the world, well behind Sinner and Alcaraz but within striking distance of Djokovic, Zverev and Fritz above him.<\/p>\n
You can pretty accurately predict he won\u2019t ever win a slam while also conceding he\u2019s good enough to do so; those thoughts are not in conflict. It is plausible, which is more than you can say about 99% of pro Australian tennis players to ever exist.<\/p>\n
Alex de Minaur of Australia poses with the men’s singles championship trophy after winning the men’s singles finals match against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina of Spain on the final day of the Mubadala Citi DC Open 2025 at William H.G. FitzGerald Tennis Center on July 27, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch \/ GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA \/ Getty Images via AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n
Nick Kyrgios was in the one per cent with de Minaur, but on the other side of the physical spectrum – clearly talented enough to do so, but without de Minaur\u2019s drive and determination. That is not necessarily a criticism of Kyrgios nor a suggestion he never tried; he clearly did. Just not like de Minaur had to, to compensate for his relative lack of physical ability.<\/p>\n
Arguably de Minaur would\u2019ve been better off in Kyrgios\u2019 shoes where there were moments, glimpses where Kyrgios could have very clearly won a grand slam.<\/p>\n
But Kyrgios instead had to deal with the response that came from frustrating the Australian public with a failure to capitalise; which might be worse than everyone assuming you\u2019ll never even get the chance to fail.<\/p>\n
De Minaur needs the chips to fall his way on draw day. He has been drawn in Sinner\u2019s path for three of the last four Australian Opens, and was in Djokovic\u2019s section for the fourth (2023).<\/p>\n
He will likely be seeded in the fifth to eighth range – he\u2019s currently No.7, tied on ranking points with Taylor Fritz. De Minaur has a good chance to break the tie with a strong United Cup performance because he\u2019s defending minimal points (55) from the 2025 edition, while Fritz is defending almost 300 points having won it last time.<\/p>\n
At best de Minaur could reach No.5 for the first time, with Felix Auger-Aliassime just 110 points ahead of him; the Canadian is also defending minimal points at the United Cup.<\/p>\n
At worst he could fall out of the top eight, though that would require Lorenzo Musetti (95 points behind) and Ben Shelton (165 points behind) to have great starts to the season.<\/p>\n
Assuming that doesn\u2019t happen de Minaur will cop a top-four seed in his projected Melbourne Park quarter-final, but he really needs it to be Alex Zverev (who he\u2019s 2-2 against over the last three years) if he\u2019s to crack the semi-finals. Djokovic in a pinch, maybe.<\/p>\n
Just definitely not Alcaraz or Sinner.<\/p>\n
…BECAUSE ALCARAZ OR SINNER IS GONNA WIN THE TOURNAMENT<\/p>\n
World No.1 Carlos Alcaraz heads into the Australian Open knowing it\u2019s the last missing piece of his resume, having already won each other grand slam twice.<\/p>\n
Aged just 22, Alcaraz is already an all-time great, and it\u2019s frankly bizarre he has never made it past the quarter-finals of the season\u2019s first slam.<\/p>\n
Admittedly part of the issue is the world No.2, Jannik Sinner, the modern king of hard-court tennis.<\/p>\n
While Alcaraz has won the US Open twice, including in a final over Sinner last September, historically hard courts are his worst surface. At tour level he wins \u2018just\u2019 77.2% of his matches on the surface, compared to 84.5% on clay and 89.7% on grass.<\/p>\n
Sinner in contrast is at 80.8% on hard courts, 71.4% on clay and 74.4% on grass.<\/p>\n
Neither man has completed a career slam with Sinner missing the Roland Garros crown – he lost a wild five-set final to Alcaraz last year.<\/p>\n
Carlos Alcaraz of Spain poses with his trophy after defeating Jannik Sinner of Italy during their Men’s Singles Final match on Day Fifteen of the 2025 US Open at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on September 07, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by CLIVE BRUNSKILL \/ GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA \/ Getty Images via AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n
But Alcaraz hasn\u2019t even had the chance to lose the final. Absent from the 2023 tournament following his breakthrough 2022 US Open title, Alcaraz lost to Alex Zverev in the 2024 quarter-finals, and to Novak Djokovic in the 2025 quarter-finals.<\/p>\n
Making matters worse, neither man did anything after ending Alcaraz\u2019s tournament prematurely. Zverev choked from two sets up against Daniil Medvedev in the semi-finals, while Djokovic wasn\u2019t healthy and retired against Zverev after dropping the first set last year.<\/p>\n
This, clearly, is Alcaraz\u2019s best shot at claiming the last trophy missing from his cabinet. And while it may seem obvious to say about the clear top two players on the men\u2019s tour, one of him or back-to-back champion Sinner will win the 2026 tournament.<\/p>\n
And that\u2019s because they\u2019re both playing in it. Through the 2025 season, there were some random results at top-level tournaments when one of the two young superstars was missing – most notably world No.204 Valentin Vacherot\u2019s absurd run to the Shanghai title.<\/p>\n
As pointed out by Ben Rothenberg in his Bounces newsletter<\/a>, on all nine occasions Sinner and Alcaraz played in a tournament in 2025, one of them won it.<\/p>\n Of course, sometimes when only one of them played in the tournament, the one left still won the title. But broadly speaking it appears one freakishly talented tennis prodigy can be overcome, but not two.<\/p>\n They faced off in the last three slam finals – Alcaraz winning in Paris and New York, and Sinner winning in London. Hard to bet against them making it four in a row, and Sinner will be the deserving favourite, given his metronomic consistency compared to Alcaraz\u2019s ups and downs.<\/p>\n Jannik Sinner of Italy poses with the Gentlemen\u2019s Singles Trophy alongside Carlos Alcaraz of Spain after the Gentlemen\u2019s Singles Final on day fourteen of The Championships Wimbledon 2025 at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club on July 13, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by Julian Finney\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n KYRGIOS\u2019 LAST-DITCH BID FOR MIRACLE<\/p>\n As of writing, Nick Kyrgios has not yet been awarded a wildcard into the Australian Open.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s heavily expected especially after the enigmatic 30-year-old accepted a wildcard into the Brisbane International lead-up tournament (begins January 4).<\/p>\n It\u2019s part of a surprisingly busy schedule for a player who thought he would never return to his home grand slam, telling reporters after his 2025 first-round Melbourne Park loss \u201crealistically I can\u2019t see myself playing a singles match here again\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n Kyrgios will also play the Kooyong Classic (begins January 13) the week prior to the Australian Open, while he has played a series of exhibition matches including late December\u2019s controversial Battle of the Sexes clash against Aryna Sabalenka.<\/p>\n So why is he back? Well, Kyrgios declared in November his long-term issues with his knee appear to have cleared up, saying: \u201cI don\u2019t know whether to call it a miracle or anything, but my knee feels like it\u2019s gotten younger by a couple of years.<\/p>\n \u201cI really didn\u2019t have hope to be able to play AO or just ever get back to that point of where I felt comfortable and competing and really letting my body go.<\/p>\n \u201cBut something in the last month, I don\u2019t know what it is. I was with my masseuse and physio last night and something really has changed with my knee.<\/p>\n \u201cLike it\u2019s not swelling, it\u2019s not feeling bad after a session.\u201d<\/p>\n It\u2019d be handy if his knee was exactly four years younger, because a return of 2022 Kyrgios – the version of Kyrgios that made the Wimbledon final, and walked out onto the court for a US Open quarter-final as the tournament favourite – would be rather exciting.<\/p>\n Instead a series of injuries, including with his knee, have kept the Canberran to just six competitive matches since October 2022.<\/p>\n Aryna Sabalenka and Tommy Paul of the United States congratulate Naomi Osaka of Japan and Nick Kyrgios of Australia on winning their mixed doubles match during the Garden Cup exhibition at Madison Square Garden on December 08, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Adam Hunger \/ GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA \/ Getty Images via AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n This time last year, Kyrgios made a solid return in Brisbane, falling to big-serving young gun Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in three sets. But he aggravated an abdominal strain suffered in Brisbane during his first-round Australian Open loss to Briton Jacob Fearnley.<\/p>\n Three matches in the March hard court swing across Indian Wells and Miami, one of them halted prematurely and the last ending in a 6-0 drubbing, were all Kyrgios could manage for the rest of the year.<\/p>\n So what can we realistically expect in 2026? Well, sadly for fans of the controversial excitement machine, the most likely outcome would be an injury. His body has simply not proven itself able to survive the requirements of professional tennis.<\/p>\n However long Kyrgios stays fit, though, he can still do damage. No seed would want to draw him in the first round of the Australian Open simply because of the variance – sure, he could be rusty and fall apart, but he could also turn it on for one more Melbourne night.<\/p>\n His ceiling is still higher than any Aussie man not named Alex de Minaur, though Alexei Popyrin has shown the ability to make deep runs at high-quality tournaments.<\/p>\n Ranked as high as No.19 in the world this past August, Popyrin was heavily reliant on the ranking points gained from his brilliant run to the 2024 Canadian Open title.<\/p>\n He made the quarter-finals in 2025, still an excellent result at a Masters, but combined with a second-round exit at the US Open (as compared to a 2024 fourth-round run which included upsetting Novak Djokovic) has fallen just outside the top 50.<\/p>\n Australia’s Alexei Popyrin celebrates winning a break point and a game against Serbia’s Novak Djokovic during their men’s singles third round match on day five of the US Open tennis tournament at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City, on August 30, 2024. (Photo by ANGELA WEISS \/ AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n Popyrin, Adam Walton, Aleksandar Vukic, James Duckworth and Tristan Schoolkate all earned direct entry into the Australian Open, while Thanasi Kokkinakis has entered through a protected ranking. James Duckworth and Rinky Hijikata are the wildcards confirmed thus far.<\/p>\n History suggests between one and four of them will win their opening match, and one or two could sneak into the third round, though they\u2019d either need to upset a seed or take advantage of an upset elsewhere to do so.<\/p>\n Cruz Hewitt, the son of Lleyton who turned 17 earlier this month, will return to the juniors\u2019 tournament where he won his opening match in 2025.<\/p>\n Other Aussies earning spots in the Australian Open juniors include Daniel Jovanovski, Tahlia Kokkinis and Renee Alame.<\/p>\n The top seeds are France\u2019s Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou and Czechia\u2019s Alena Kovackova (her younger sister Jana being seeded third).<\/p>\n THE GREAT AUSSIE HOPE HANDED TO US BY THE US<\/p>\n For the first time since Ash Barty\u2019s moment of glory, there\u2019ll be an Aussie woman seeded at her home slam – even if she only became an Aussie a few years ago.<\/p>\n Maya Joint grew up in the US before moving to Brisbane aged 16, then using her dual citizenship held through her Australian father Michael to play under the Aussie flag once she went professional.<\/p>\n \u201cI wasn\u2019t getting the support I wanted or thought I had deserved from the US Federation,\u201d Joint told the WTA\u2019s website.<\/p>\n \u201cSo we reached out to Tennis Australia to see if we could switch my flag from the US to Australia and if I could get some training opportunities in Brisbane. We had a lot of video calls and back and forth, trying to figure out who I was, pretty much.\u201d<\/p>\n After a fortnight\u2019s trial, Joint became officially an Aussie, though as you\u2019ll hear on TV this January she still holds an American accent.<\/p>\n More important than how she sounds is how she plays – bloody well.<\/p>\n Only two other teenagers, world No.9 Mirra Andreeva and world No.18 Victoria Mboko, are ranked higher than world No.32 Joint after a breakout 2025 campaign which included two WTA titles (Rabat and Eastbourne) and wins over the likes of world No.12 Clara Tauson, world No.21 Diana Schnaider, former Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin (twice) and former US Open champion Emma Raducanu.<\/p>\n Most importantly, Joint\u2019s ranking means she\u2019s in line to be seeded, protecting her from playing a fellow seed until at least the third round of the Australian Open. By comparison, last year her opening match was against reigning US Open finalist Jessica Pegula.<\/p>\n Australia’s Maya Joint poses with the trophy after beating Philippines’ Alexandra Eala in their women’s singles final tennis match on day six of the Lexus Eastbourne International tennis tournament in Eastbourne, southern England, on June 28, 2025. Joint won the match in three sets, 12-10 in a third set tie-break. (Photo by Adrian Dennis \/ AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n Such a low seed guarantees nothing at a women\u2019s slam, of course. It\u2019s far more common that the No.32 seed wins either one or zero matches, failing to live up to the seeding, than goes on a deep run.<\/p>\n Since Fabiola Zuluaga\u2019s unlikely run to the 2004 semi-finals (in which she didn\u2019t play anyone ranked higher than her), only one No.32 seed has made it out of the third round at the Australian Open (Anett Kontaveit, fourth round in 2018).<\/p>\n Joint is realistic about her hopes, telling The Age earlier this month<\/a> her goals in 2026 were to win a 500-level event, get to the fourth round of a Masters 1000 and make the third round of a slam. She has made a second round twice, at the last two US Opens.<\/p>\n It\u2019s somewhat surprising Joint is the highest-ranked Aussie women at this Open given the track record of fellow convert Daria Kasatkina, though the former Russian has understandably struggled with an emotional 12 months.<\/p>\n Openly gay, Kasatkina switched to represent Australia last March, crediting her adopted nation\u2019s tolerance compared with her homeland.<\/p>\n The 28-year-old was ranked as high as No.8 in the world in October 2022, after making the semi-finals of that year\u2019s French Open and Italian Open. She has also made the fourth round of the Australian Open (2025) and US Open (2017 and 2023), showing her quality on all surfaces.<\/p>\n