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<\/a><\/p>\nWhile the increase might seem small, with upwards of 700,000 pitches thrown across the league in a given season, the shift is clearly intentional. But why? Well, because hitting is hard. Here\u2019s a look at pitcher run values per 100 pitches on swings, sorted by zone.<\/p>\n
Hitters, as a whole, are best served only swinging at pitches right down the middle. On average, swinging at just about anything else is a positive for pitchers. Pitching is better than it ever has been before. Velocity is up, and arsenals are deeper. In 2008, 78.8% of pitches thrown in 3-1 counts were four-seamers or sinkers \u2014 they averaged 91.2 mph. In 2025, four-seamers and sinkers accounted for only 65.8% of 3-1 pitches and averaged 94.1 mph. Hitters used to see 3-1 fastballs because that\u2019s what you were \u201csupposed\u201d to throw, but more recently, organizations have stopped doing hitters favors.<\/p>\n There are obviously exceptions. Rafael Devers can hit a pitch off the ground for a home run. Shohei Ohtani has taken neck-high fastballs out of the park. Good pitches get hit sometimes, but as Dan Haren said, \u201cPeople pop up in batting practice.\u201d In 2016, August Fagerstrom wrote about Haren\u2019s tweet for FanGraphs<\/a>. Haren threw strikes at 88 mph and got away with it.<\/p>\n Eventually, with all trends, the scales tip. How often can you throw the ball in the zone without getting crushed? What pitch types or sequences allow you to live in the zone? In truth, I don\u2019t know. I pored over stats, ran queries, direct messaged Driveline Founder Kyle Boddy on Twitter, and went on an ayahuasca retreat to find answers, but the key to pounding the zone successfully never revealed itself to me.<\/p>\n However, one thing stood out among successful high zone rate pitchers \u2014 they throw multiple types of fastballs. Bryan Woo, Joe Ryan, Trevor Rogers, and Brandon Woodruff all throw four-seams or sinkers over 55% of the time and have zone rates over 55%. In more anecdotal evidence, Cam Schlittler threw 70% four-seamers and sinkers against the Red Sox in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. Those fastballs held a 68% zone rate. It makes sense why it works, too. Squaring up a baseball is incredibly difficult. You have to swing at the right angle, at the right time, with a split second to make a decision. I\u2019ve never hit at a level high enough to have to do much other than react to the pitch, but differentiating between two pitches that are spinning the same direction but have significantly different movement patterns feels nearly impossible.<\/p>\n Aside from reminding you that some dude who willingly lives in Southie during the offseason ended the Red Sox season, there is a reason I\u2019m publishing this on a Red Sox website. Payton Tolle debuted in August and dominated the Pittsburgh Pirates using 60% four-seam fastballs. In his next start, he tried to run that same gameplan back, but the Diamondbacks were ready. Leading up to the game, they turned the pitching machine all the way up<\/a> and refused to let the fastball beat them. Of 39 fastballs he threw, he generated only three whiffs while Dbacks\u2019 hitters fouled off 13. His cutter, curveball, and changeup each held zone rates below 50%. Tolle\u2019s only reliable pitch to throw in the zone was his four-seam, so Arizona could sit on it and fight them off until they got one to handle. He only made three starts before moving to the bullpen, but his lack of secondary pitches to throw for strikes was quickly exposed.<\/p>\n The common recommendation from analysts, players, and Tolle himself has been to improve his secondary pitches \u2014 the cutter and changeup. But what if, rather than turning the ball over or cutting it more often, he just started throwing a sinker? He already throws hard and has huge extension. If he has two fastball shapes to throw in the zone instead of just one, it\u2019s that much harder to set your sights above the rising four-seam and wait for one to hit. Hitters have a difficult time damaging pitches that aren\u2019t down the middle, but if they know what\u2019s coming, it\u2019s a bit easier. FanGraphs\u2019 Justin Choi<\/a> came to similar conclusions. He found that using sinkers and four-seams early in counts was a great way to limit early damage.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n