With three nights off last week, we didn\u2019t have as many games as usual this week. That means that our rankings won\u2019t move all that much from last time. And more importantly, it means fewer opportunities to learn anything new.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s bad news for me because there are a handful of teams where I need all the information I can get because I just can\u2019t figure them out.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m not clueless about absolutely everyone. I know the Colorado Avalanche are good, and the Chicago Blackhawks are bad, and that all of this is futile because the Buffalo Sabres will never lose again. But for more than a few teams, I can cram everything I think I know into my hockey fan brain and all that comes out is a shrug emoji.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve narrowed the list down to five. Help me, readers, because I can\u2019t figure these teams out.<\/p>\n
Bonus five: Teams I just don\u2019t understand (and why)<\/p>\n
5. Los Angeles Kings \u2013 They took a step back during the offseason, they\u2019ve already made a seller-style trade in sending Phillip Danault to Montreal, and it feels like every time you check the standings they\u2019re riding a three-game losing streak. But they\u2019re also always holding down a playoff spot, so \u2026 they\u2019re good? Or maybe good enough? Or maybe just headed to yet another first-round exit, although maybe against someone other than the Oilers this time. I\u2019m pretty sure it\u2019s that last one, but it would be nice if they could just pick a lane and stay in it for more than a week or two at a time.<\/p>\n
4. Detroit Red Wings \u2013 This might just be stubbornness on my part. The Wings have been hanging around the top of the Atlantic for most of the season, and at some point we\u2019ll have to accept that they\u2019re a solid 100-point team, and in that division, that should be more than enough to be in the running. It\u2019s what they\u2019ve been pretty much since the day Todd McLellan took over. Then you notice the negative goals differential and you start to wonder. Or do you?<\/p>\n
3. Boston Bruins \u2013 I honestly think part of what makes the Bruins so hard to read is their dedication to not soiling their record with loser points. As fans, we\u2019ve been trained to basically ignore that column, meaning it feels like the Bruins have played way more games than anyone else. They have more regulation losses than any team in the conference, but have also cracked the 20-win mark that teams like the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights haven\u2019t hit yet. Are they making the playoffs? No. But they\u2019re going to win more games than some playoff teams, and that\u2019s weird. (In fact, it\u2019s almost as if the whole rationale for the loser point is a big lie<\/a>.)<\/p>\n 2. Utah Mammoth \u2013 We all figured that once the Coyotes got out from under the Arizona cloud of uncertainty, they\u2019d blossom into \u2026 something. This was supposed to be the year it happened. And it kind of did, early on, and we all wrote about how the Mammoth had finally arrived. But they came out of the break sitting at fake .500 and tied for the league lead in regulation losses. That might still be good enough for a playoff spot in a top-heavy West, but is this team any good? And if not, is there a valid path to get there any time soon, now that all the obvious excuses are gone?<\/p>\n 1. Philadelphia Flyers \u2013 At some point, I\u2019m going to have admit that this team is good. Not \u201cbetter than expected,\u201d or even \u201cgood enough to sneak into the playoffs,\u201d but just plain good. Today is not that day because I can\u2019t shake the feeling that any team where Christian Dvorak is the third-leading scorer and Dan Vladar is a stud in goal just might be fake. But we\u2019re almost halfway through the season and they\u2019ve been humming along around .625 pretty much all year long. I already feel like I\u2019m locked in on the Flyers as my \u201cteam that makes the playoffs and I don\u2019t accept it until the very last night of the season.\u201d<\/p>\n On to this week\u2019s rankings\u2026<\/p>\n Road to the Cup<\/p>\n The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.<\/p>\n Put the kid on the team, guys.<\/p>\n 5. Tampa Bay Lightning (22-13-3, +25 true goals differential*) \u2013 Four straight wins, including one over the Hurricanes and another nasty one against the Panthers, was enough to get them back into top spot in the Atlantic for a few hours before Detroit took it back.<\/p>\n 4. Minnesota Wild (23-10-6, +17) \u2013 They took care of business in Winnipeg, if only barely<\/a>. That was game one of a two-week road trip while the World Juniors gets center stage in Minnesota.<\/p>\n 3. Carolina Hurricanes (23-11-3, +16) \u2013 Here\u2019s a stat that surprised me: There are only three NHL defensemen scoring at better than a point-per-game pace this season. Cale Makar is one, obviously. So is Zach Werenski, leading the way in Columbus. But the third is Shayne Gostisbehere, a guy we don\u2019t talk about a ton; he nudged his average over the 1.00 mark with his three-point performance in Saturday\u2019s win over Detroit.<\/p>\n 2. Dallas Stars (25-7-7, +34) \u2013 It still sounds like Jason Robertson has a tough road to make Team USA<\/a>, despite his production. As a Canadian, I support this completely.<\/p>\n 1. Colorado Avalanche (28-2-7, +66) \u2013 We all know they\u2019re good, but the \u201cparity\u201d chart in this article<\/a> is just ridiculous.<\/p>\n *Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.<\/p>\n Not ranked: Montreal Canadiens \u2013 They\u2019ve been good, and reasonably consistent about it, just about all year long. There was that five-game losing streak back in November, but they managed to find their footing again afterwards, and in a division that\u2019s been in flux to an almost embarrassing degree, the Habs along with the Wings have been just about the only constants.<\/p>\n They took a big swing in the summer on Noah Dobson, and so far that\u2019s worked out well<\/a>. They were buyers again before the holiday freeze, bringing back Phillip Danault<\/a>. And if they decide to load up even more on the way to the trade deadline, they have the assets to do it.<\/p>\n The question I keep coming back to: What\u2019s the ceiling here?<\/p>\n They feel like a solid bet for the playoffs (although the projections aren\u2019t as sure, having them close to a coin flip<\/a>). But if and when they get there, is there reason to believe their spring will look much different than last year\u2019s, when they were a bump in the road for a Capitals team that couldn\u2019t get any further?<\/p>\n I think there is, even as it\u2019s clear that this team\u2019s window for legitimate contention isn\u2019t quite all the way open yet. Their best players are young and improving, surrounded by an older supporting cast that should largely stay in place for two more seasons. You never know with young players \u2014 Ivan Demidov was supposed to have 50 goals by now, but he\u2019s more of an enforcer these days<\/a> \u2014 and even the best young teams will have their ups and downs. You\u2019d like to see the goaltending bail them out a little more often, although maybe Jacob Fowler is the answer there. This team still banks an awful lot of its points in overtime, and they\u2019re basically just a break-even team in terms of goals differential.<\/p>\n So: Would you pick them over a team like Tampa in round one? Florida? Detroit?<\/p>\n And maybe more importantly: Do they need a playoff win for the season to be a success, or are they already on track for the sort of progress that lets you feel good about where they\u2019re headed, even if it\u2019s another quick spring?<\/p>\n We can leave those questions to the fans for now. In the meantime, they come out of the break with a tough week that features road games against a mix of potential contenders, starting with last night\u2019s almost-comeback in a shootout loss to the Lightning. They\u2019ve got the Panthers tomorrow, then the Hurricanes on New Year\u2019s Day. After a stop in St. Louis, they finish the trip with a tough one in Dallas. If the ceiling is already higher than it looks, we might find out over the next few weeks.<\/p>\n From there, we\u2019ll have to wait for the trade deadline and the inevitable Sidney Crosby trade. That one might move the needle, just a bit.<\/p>\n The bottom five<\/p>\n The five teams headed towards dead last and the best lottery odds for the top pick in this year\u2019s draft.<\/p>\n If you missed it, be sure to check out our staff predictions for the World Juniors<\/a> and Scott\u2019s viewing guide<\/a>. Lots of pressure on the former presumptive top pick Gavin McKenna, for sure.<\/p>\n 5. Nashville Predators (16-17-4, -21) \u2013 Saturday\u2019s loss to the Blues snapped Nashville\u2019s win streak at three, and moved the Blues back ahead of them in the standings. But the Preds have been humming along at \u201creasonably decent\u201d for a few weeks now, and just miss escaping the bottom five.<\/p>\n 4. St. Louis Blues (15-16-8, -33) \u2013 Now we see if they can turn that into their first win streak since the opening week of December. They\u2019ll have to earn it, as they\u2019ve got the red-hot Sabres and the first-place Avalanche up next.<\/p>\n 3. Calgary Flames (16-18-4, -14) \u2013 Both Pierre and CJ have Rasmus Andersson staying in the Pacific<\/a>. The bigger question is whether an extension will be part of any deal, and how that would affect the return the Flames can get on their top trade asset.<\/p>\n 2. Vancouver Canucks (15-19-3, -25) \u2013 Hey, look who\u2019s on the board\u2026<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Drance had a good piece on what exactly this retool (that might not be a rebuild) is going to mean for this team<\/a>.<\/p>\n 1. Chicago Blackhawks (14-18-6, -17) \u2013 Beating Dallas, even in a shootout, was impressive. It was also apparently exhausting, at least based on that first period against the Penguins last night.<\/p>\n Not ranked: Winnipeg Jets \u2013 I didn\u2019t include them in the teams that confuse me because they\u2019ve transcended that. And I didn\u2019t really consider putting them in the bottom five even though the standings say they should be there, because I really can\u2019t believe that they\u2019re this bad.<\/p>\n But also, they might just be this bad.<\/p>\n Saturday\u2019s collapse against the Wild will go in the books as the Jets\u2019 fifth straight loss. It\u2019s also their eighth loss in nine, tenth in twelve, and fourteenth in their last seventeen. Whichever arbitrary endpoint you want to choose, there\u2019s no way to make this look good. Oh, and now Josh Morrissey is hurt.<\/p>\n And again, these are the defending Presidents\u2019 Trophy champs, who employ the reigning MVP. I\u2019m not sure anyone was expecting a repeat of last year\u2019s 116-point season, but falling all the way out of the playoff picture felt unlikely. Now that result is starting to feel like a sure thing.<\/p>\n We\u2019re not quite there yet, and our projections still have the Jets in the 40 percent range<\/a> to make the playoffs. Moneypuck is more bullish, dropping them under 30 percent<\/a>, just slightly ahead of the Flames. And I get the feeling that some Jets fans are already prepared to throw in the towel, jump into a seller\u2019s market and regroup with an eye to the future.<\/p>\n