{"id":37966,"date":"2025-08-01T17:27:10","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T17:27:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/37966\/"},"modified":"2025-08-01T17:27:10","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T17:27:10","slug":"fantasy-baseball-lineup-advice-and-betting-tips-for-friday-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/37966\/","title":{"rendered":"Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday"},"content":{"rendered":"

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball<\/a> lineup decisions. MLB betting tips<\/a> for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET<\/a>, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jump to: Pitching notes<\/a> | Hitting notes<\/a> | Betting tips<\/a>
Reliever depth chart<\/a> | Start a new league<\/a><\/p>\n

Pitchers to stream on Friday<\/p>\n

For the season, the Arizona Diamondbacks<\/a> offense facing left-handers has been league average. However, look for the production to fall with Eugenio Suarez<\/a> and Josh Naylor<\/a> reunited in the Pacific Northwest. The Athletics<\/a> and Diamondbacks open a series in Sacramento with Jacob Lopez<\/a> taking the hill for the home team. The southpaw sports an impressive 27.5% strikeout rate, helping mitigate a high 9.8% walk rate. Homers are an issue, but he’ll face a lineup lacking two big bats.<\/p>\n

In what may be a harbinger of a strong stretch run, Gavin Williams<\/a> emerged from the break with a pair of quality starts. He fanned only three last time, but he punched out 11 the prior outing, giving him 14 strikeouts over his last 13 frames. Next up is a familiar foe with the Minnesota Twins<\/a> visiting the Cleveland Guardians<\/a>. Over the last month, the Twins recorded the fourth lowest wOBA facing right-handers, buoyed by an above average strikeout rate.<\/p>\n

It’s risky trusting a rookie pitcher coming off the IL without the benefit of a rehab assignment but Shane Smith<\/a> has looked solid in bullpen sessions, and there is strikeout upside when the Chicago White Sox<\/a> open a series in Anaheim against the Los Angeles Angels<\/a> and a lineup punching out 25.4% of the time versus right-handers.<\/p>\n

Pitchers to avoid on Friday<\/p>\n

Trevor Rogers<\/a> is one of the season’s best stories, posting a 1.49 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in eight starts, spanning 48 1\/3 innings. Rogers has benefited from a .183 BABIP and 85.6% left on base mark, but his 3.76 xFIP and 3.91 SIERA indicate he’ll survive a visit from the regression monster and still be better than league average. What isn’t safe is a road date with the Chicago Cubs<\/a> and one of the league’s most potent offenses. The smart play is leaving Rogers on the bench for this Wrigley Field matinee.<\/p>\n

Today’s best matchups for pitchers<\/p>\n

Chicago Cubs<\/a> pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: D | Park: B | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: C | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.24 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n

Milwaukee Brewers<\/a> pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.74 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n

Baltimore Orioles<\/a> pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: D | Park: B | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: C | Wind: A+ | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.79 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n

Today’s worst matchups for pitchers<\/p>\n

Colorado Rockies<\/a> pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.77 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Pirates<\/a> pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: F | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.54 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Rays<\/a> pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.32 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n

Hitters to stream on FridayToday’s best matchups for hitters<\/p>\n

Colorado Rockies batters vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: A+ | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: A+ | Home
The average hitter would post a .392 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Pirates batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: A+ | Away
The average hitter would post a .379 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n

Athletics<\/a> LHB vs. Diamondbacks pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A | Park: B | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n

Today’s worst matchups for hitters<\/p>\n

Baltimore Orioles batters vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .268 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n

Texas Rangers<\/a> batters vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Umpire: B | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .269 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n

Cleveland Guardians<\/a> RHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n

Betting tips<\/p>\n

Best\/worst pitcher\/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.<\/p>\n

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n

Today’s top HR prop bets<\/p>\n

Max Kepler<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)<\/a>
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.68 EV
One reason to bet this: Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the second-shallowest in the league.<\/p>\n

Sean Murphy<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)<\/a>
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s seventh-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.<\/p>\n

Today’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n

Trevor Rogers<\/a> | UNDER 4.5 K (-130)<\/a>
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.65 EV
One reason to bet this: Per my projections, the team with the third-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Cubs, with a 19.8% underlying K%.<\/p>\n

Cade Horton<\/a> | OVER 4.5 K (-115)<\/a>
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.52 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system sees Wrigley Field as the fourth-best park in the league for strikeouts.<\/p>\n

Bryce Elder<\/a> | UNDER 4.5 K (-120)<\/a>
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.31 EV
One reason to bet this: Given the 0.35 discrepancy between Elder’s 7.52 K\/9 and his 7.18 estimated true talent K\/9 (via my projections), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts. He figures to see negative regression in future games.<\/p>\n

Today’s top YRFI\/NRFI bet<\/p>\n

Orioles @ Cubs | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $0.80 EV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":37967,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[64,63,591,85],"class_list":["post-37966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37966","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37966"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37966\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37967"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37966"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37966"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37966"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}