How did he not go 30-2?![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/GettyImages-2231076478-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n Paul Skenes was the unanimous pick for the NL Cy Young Award despite almost finishing with a losing record. (Justin Berl \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n
When the Greatest Pirates Pitching Phenom Ever takes the mound, amazing things happen. It would be cool if winning was one of those things. But if it did, he wouldn\u2019t have any shot to win the rarified Cy Young Award\/Strange But True Player of the Year daily double. And frankly, that would be a shame.<\/p>\n
So as you read this, be grateful for all the creative ways the Pirates find to sabotage the brilliance of their best pitcher. It isn\u2019t easy to avoid winning these Paul Skenes masterpieces. But hey, they\u2019re the Pirates. They have a knack for that.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s start this conversation, then, by asking you to use your imagination. Suppose a baseball team \u2014 let\u2019s call them Not the Pirates \u2014 had a pitcher who \u2026<\/p>\n
\u2022 Made every start \u2014 all 32 of them \u2014 and averaged just under six innings a start.<\/p>\n
\u2022 Had an ERA below 2.00 \u2014 as in 1.97.<\/p>\n
\u2022 Allowed fewer than one batter per inning to reach base against him \u2014 as his league-leading 0.95 WHIP so vividly documents.<\/p>\n
\u2022 Piled up 216 strikeouts, and if he\u2019d given up just 28 fewer hits, would have had a season with twice as many strikeouts as hits allowed.<\/p>\n
\u2022 And led all of MLB in a theoretically revealing metric, via Baseball Reference, known as Win Probability Added.<\/p>\n
What would you imagine the won-lost record of that imaginary pitcher would be, for his totally normal team, the Not the Pirates? Ha. Maybe the Actual Pirates wouldn\u2019t want to know, but I got curious. So here\u2019s what I found.<\/p>\n
Since 1969, the year MLB lowered the mound to its current height, Skenes is the 18th pitcher to finish a season with a sub-2.00 ERA, a sub-1.00 WHIP and at least 180 innings pitched.<\/p>\n
The average record of those other 17\u00a0was 19-7.<\/p>\n
The record of 2025 Paul Skenes looked slightly different,\u00a0as in 10-10. Does that seem close to impossible? You have no idea how close to impossible.<\/p>\n
Wait. He almost had a losing record?<\/p>\n
It\u2019s actually a miracle that Skenes\u00a0didn\u2019t\u00a0have a losing record. As late as mid-July, he was still just 4-8. And yes, you read that right. That dude who was about to start the All-Star Game again actually had a record of 4 and 8.<\/p>\n
After that, the Pirates\u2019 offense picked up the pace (very slightly), and managed to scrape together two games (out of 12 starts) in which it scored more than four runs for him. That was good enough for this guy. So he willed himself all the way to the top of Mount .500, at 10-10, even though he didn\u2019t get the win in a single game all season in which he allowed more than one earned run.<\/p>\n
But was I nearly talking myself into thinking that 10-10 was somehow a good thing, a sensible thing? I was \u2014 for a minute there. Then I decided to ask the fateful question: Has anybody else with an ERA as glittering as Skenes\u2019 ever made it through a whole season without having a record above\u00a0.500?<\/p>\n
And the answer was \u2026 C\u2019mon. Seriously?<\/p>\n
I looked at all 33 starters in the live-ball era (since 1920) who made at least 30 starts in a season and had an ERA south of 2.00. The only two who were even close were Jacob deGrom in 2018 (10-9, 1.70) and Sam McDowell in 1968 (15-14, 1.81).<\/p>\n
Other than them, the heck with being .500. Everybody else had a winning percentage of at least .600. In fact, 19 of the other 32 were at least at .700. Then again, you know what else those other 32 pitchers had in common. None of them were Pirates.<\/p>\n
Is it illegal to assemble an actual lineup in Pittsburgh?![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/GettyImages-2231076432-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n Paul Skenes has a sparkling 1.96 ERA over 55 career starts with the Pirates. Get this guy some run support! (Justin Berl \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n
That\u2019s another question we have every right to ask, because it\u2019s not as if this trend just started in 2025.<\/p>\n
Counting the 23 starts in his rookie year, Skenes is now up to 55 career starts in the big leagues. I don\u2019t want to jump to any conclusions, but I\u2019m starting to think he\u2019s pretty good. Take a look.<\/p>\n
LOWEST ERA, FIRST 55 STARTS (LIVE-BALL ERA)<\/p>\n
Paul Skenes\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
1.96<\/p>\n
Howie Pollet\u00a0<\/p>\n
2.03<\/p>\n
Vida Blue\u00a0<\/p>\n
2.04<\/p>\n
Orel Hershiser\u00a0<\/p>\n
2.09<\/p>\n
Dwight Gooden\u00a0<\/p>\n
2.12<\/p>\n
(Source: Elias Sports Bureau)<\/p>\n
Got that? The complete list of starting pitchers, over the last century, who had an ERA lower than 2.00 at this stage of their career, consists of just one name. Guess who?<\/p>\n
So let\u2019s pose another fun little hypothetical question, just because who doesn\u2019t love some good hypothesizing. What might have happened in an alternate universe in which this man didn\u2019t pitch for the team with the lowest-scoring offense in the major leagues? What might his record have looked like if he simply pitched for a team with even an average lineup?<\/p>\n
Fun question, right? Luckily, loyal reader Ryan (The Ace of) Spaeder did this math so we didn\u2019t have to. He examined this question: What would Skenes\u2019 career record be if the Pirates had merely provided average run support in each of his 55 career starts? Would you believe that answer is \u2026<\/p>\n
(Ready? Take a deep breath now.)\u00a041-3!<\/p>\n
Do you believe it? Of course you believe it. You\u2019ve seen this movie. We\u2019ve all seen this movie. It\u2019s the horror film nobody asked for.<\/p>\n
In the grand Skenes of things<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t know about you, but I think I\u2019ve stumbled upon a trend here. I\u2019ve written this before, but since it\u2019s as true as ever, let\u2019s repeat it here. Here\u2019s how that trend works:<\/p>\n
It doesn\u2019t matter how well Skenes pitches.<\/p>\n
It doesn\u2019t matter how long Skenes pitches.<\/p>\n
It doesn\u2019t matter if he\u2019s facing the Dodgers or the Nationals.<\/p>\n
It always ends the same. By which I mean you won\u2019t be reading many box scores that say:<\/p>\n
WP \u2014 Skenes<\/p>\n
How about this: In his two seasons in Pittsburgh, Skenes is up to 34 career starts in which he hasn\u2019t gotten a win. Somehow, it doesn\u2019t feel like that\u2019s his fault. His numbers in those non-wins:<\/p>\n
A 2.66 ERA \u2026 and 0.94 WHIP \u2026 and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings!<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s frame that. That means that just in games\u00a0he hasn\u2019t won, he has basically been 2004 Johan (AL Cy Young) Santana ( 2.61 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 10.5 K\/9 IP) with one tiny difference.<\/p>\n
Santana\u2019s record with those stats: 20-6.<\/p>\n
Skenes\u2019 record with those stats: 0-13.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Those two things don\u2019t seem the same.<\/p>\n
So let\u2019s look at this through the prism of history. It won\u2019t make the Pirates look any better, but the prism of history hasn\u2019t been a Pirates fan for a while, for some reason.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s every pitcher in history with that many starts and a career ERA below 3.00 in their non-wins. (This is since earned runs became an official stat in 1913; we booted all the openers off the list.)<\/p>\n
Paul Skenes \u2014 2.66
So much for that list.<\/p>\n
(Source: Baseball Reference)<\/p>\n
But wait. This gets even more incredible. I eliminated the swingmen and just looked at pitchers who were starters in more than half their career appearances. Once I did that, I found only one of them whose ERA was even under 3.80\u00a0in his non-wins. That\u2019s deGrom, because of course it is, at 3.62. And if you do some quick subtracting, you\u2019ll notice even deGrom\u2019s ERA in those games is nearly a whole run higher than Skenes\u2019.<\/p>\n
So have we established yet that the Pirates have taken not winning to unprecedented heights when Skenes is working his magic? I think we have. So naturally, why would we stop here?<\/p>\n
Spring in Pittsburgh isn\u2019t as pretty as it looks<\/p>\n
When spring arrives in Pittsburgh, the flowers bloom. The rivers glisten in the sunshine. The fries on those Primanti Brothers sandwiches taste more crispy and delicious than ever. If only the Pirates weren\u2019t starting another season by getting themselves 18 games out of first place faster than you could say: Did Alexander Canario really hit cleanup last night?<\/p>\n
So imagine being the fantastic No. 1 starter for a team like that. Here\u2019s how that goes.<\/p>\n
Between April 19 and July 11, Skenes made 16 starts. His ERA in those starts was 1.77. He averaged six innings per start. The league batted .194 against him. It was all great, except for a few pesky details:<\/p>\n
\u2022 He won only two\u00a0of those 16 starts.<\/p>\n
\u2022 His record was 2-7\u00a0in those 16 starts.<\/p>\n
\u2022 His team\u2019s record, when he made the mistake of allowing even one run, was 3-8.<\/p>\n
\u2022 His team\u2019s record, when he made the mistake of allowing an earned run, was 2-8.<\/p>\n
\u2022 His team still had a losing record (7-9) no matter how many runs it scored or how many (or few) he allowed.<\/p>\n
Can a pitcher sue for non-support? What court in Western Pennsylvania would have ruled against this guy if he\u2019d done that?<\/p>\n
Crazy eights![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/GettyImages-2162583819-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n Pirates fans give Paul Skenes a standing ovation after a start in which he pitched into the ninth inning. He ended up taking the loss. (Joe Sargent \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n
The Pirates tend to watch Skenes\u2019 innings, but twice this year, they did let him pitch eight innings. His record in those starts? Right. It was 0-2.<\/p>\n
He also had a start in 2024 of 8 1\/3 innings, so that makes it three starts in his career of eight innings or longer. His ERA in those starts is 1.48. His record in those starts is \u2026 what else? \u2026 0-3.<\/p>\n
You know what the record is of all other starters in baseball over the last two seasons, when they pitch eight innings or longer? How about 141-22!<\/p>\n
And that, my friends, is what it\u2019s like to be the one, the only Paul D. Skenes. When he holds the baseball in his hands, it\u2019s Must See TV. It\u2019s pure pitching genius. It\u2019s historic. And it\u2019s special. Then you remember to ask:\u00a0Hey, how\u2019d the Pirates do last night? Any chance they won?<\/p>\n
Sadly, you know the answer. We\u2019ve just laid out exactly how that goes. And that\u2019s how a pitcher this great wound up in this portion of our review of the Strangest But Truest stuff that happened in MLB in 2025.<\/p>\n
To everyone in Pittsburgh who has had to suffer through this torture, we can only say: We\u2019re sorry. And also \u2026\u00a0big Steelers game coming up this weekend.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"I have a quick confession to make. There\u2019s actually nothing strange at all about 2025\u2019s Strange But True…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":381050,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[64,63,591,5160,85],"class_list":["post-381049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-mlb","tag-pittsburgh-pirates","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/381049","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=381049"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/381049\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/381050"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=381049"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=381049"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=381049"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}