Like Indiana itself, Mendoza entered the year as more of a curiosity than a realistic candidate to be No. 1 overall. But the poise, precision and mobility he\u2019s demonstrated in guiding the unbeaten Hoosiers to the playoffs have turned all doubters in the scouting community to believers along the way.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In a draft class full of quarterbacks with more questions than answers, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner\u2019s consistency stands apart. He has completed 68.1% of his passes over his career and has thrown nearly three times as many touchdowns (63) as interceptions (22) during that time, dating back to his time at Cal. Simply put, Mendoza takes care of the ball. In an era of pass-happy gunslingers, Mendoza has thrown multiple interceptions in a game just once in the past two years. He shows not only impressive anticipation and accuracy on throws to all levels of the field, but the pre- and post-snap recognition that comes with starting 33 games at the collegiate level for two different offenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Mendoza\u2019s decision-making and clutch play in tight road wins at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State and in the Big Ten<\/a> Championship Game versus Ohio State are a testament to his football IQ and poise. But make no mistake, he\u2019s also quite physically gifted. He comes with prototypical size (6-foot-5, 225 pounds) and possesses plenty of velocity, touch and accuracy to make every throw in an NFL playbook. Mendoza is also quite accurate on the move \u2014 excelling on QB waggles \u2014 and while he\u2019d prefer to buy time and throw the ball, he is a quality athlete who’s unafraid to run (he’s rushed for 10 touchdowns over his career).\u00a0<\/p>\n The one nit to pick with Mendoza is that he has very limited experience taking snaps from under center. He didn\u2019t take a single snap under center, for example, in the aforementioned contests against Big Ten foes. Turning his back to the defense on the drop back will force Mendoza to speed up his processing that much more in the NFL. However, the graduate-level decision-making and quality athleticism he\u2019s already shown on tape suggest that his development in this area will be more of a speed bump rather than a debilitating hindrance at the next level.\u00a0<\/p>\n Mendoza projects as a more athletic version of former No. 1 overall pick (and four-time Pro Bowler) Jared Goff. He possesses the physical skill set and intangibles to warrant an early first round selection and, barring injury, will prove to be a quality NFL starter.\u00a0<\/p>\n Fernando Mendoza is the current favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. (Photo by Joe Robbins\/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) <\/p>\n 2. Dante Moore<\/a>, Oregon<\/p>\n The NFL is all about projecting upside and, Moore simply has more of that than any other quarterback in this draft class.\u00a0<\/p>\n There is a tantalizing ease with which he plays the game. Every throw looks so effortless \u2014 and many of them show a degree of velocity, precision and touch that only a handful of current NFL quarterbacks possess. His ability to “drop it in the bucket” on intermediate and deep throws stands out in this class, justifying the frequent comparisons Moore gets to young Texans star C.J. Stroud.\u00a0<\/p>\n Like Stroud, Moore is a gifted and natural passer. He has a snappy release and the ball simply explodes out of his hand. He is a creative distributor, dropping his arm angle to throw sidearm, at times. Like a second baseman avoiding an oncoming runner, Moore can pivot and throw accurately off one foot \u2014 a useful trick to combat a collapsing pocket. His ability to create out of structure will be coveted in the NFL, where playmakers like Patrick Mahomes and the past two No. 1 overall picks \u2014 Caleb Williams<\/a> and Cam Ward \u2014 have made improvisation an art form.\u00a0<\/p>\n While Moore\u2019s creativity often makes the improbable possible, there are lapses of judgment in his play. Too often, he is willing to challenge tight windows because of the confidence he has in his arm, which can lead to trouble. Between this season and the five games he started as a true freshman at UCLA<\/a> back in 2023, Moore has thrown 14 interceptions in 18 career starts.\u00a0<\/p>\n Moore has the physical traits that project quite well to the NFL, warranting early first-round consideration. However, he is just a redshirt sophomore who won\u2019t turn 21 years old until a month after the 2026 draft and both his frame (Oregon lists him at 6-foot-3, 206 pounds) and game could use a little filling out. Just as importantly, should Moore opt to give up his remaining college eligibility, scouts will likely spend as much time determining whether he possesses the maturity to lead an NFL team as they will evaluating his play.\u00a0<\/p>\n General managers are certainly aware of the inherent risk inexperienced quarterbacks bring. Over the past 10 years, five quarterbacks \u2014 Mitchell Trubisky, Kyler Murray, the late Dwayne Haskins, Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson \u2014 have been drafted in the first round with less than 20 career starts at the college level, and only Murray has been serviceable among them.\u00a0<\/p>\n Will Dante Moore declare for the 2026 NFL Draft? He could go No. 1 overall if so. (Photo by CFP\/Getty Images) <\/p>\n TOP 50<\/p>\n 3. Ty Simpson<\/a>, Alabama<\/p>\n Having only emerged as Alabama\u2019s starter this season, the same inexperience concerns scouts have with Moore will also dog Simpson, should he opt to give up his final year of college eligibility. But what a year it has been for Simpson. After completing just 29 passes over three seasons in Tuscaloosa, the former five-star recruit led the SEC<\/a> in completions (293), passing yards (3,500) and touchdowns (28) in a breakout 2025 campaign that could earn him first-round consideration.\u00a0<\/p>\n Like Mendoza and Moore, Simpson clearly possesses NFL-caliber accuracy. He is adept at layering the ball between defenders, excelling in the intermediate and deep zones that are critical to success in the NFL. He shows more maturity than his experience would suggest, often stepping up in the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield, rather than backing away from pressure and panicking over the incoming rush.\u00a0<\/p>\n At 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, Simpson lacks elite measurables. He is a functional athlete who can deliver accurately on the move but is more of a traditional pocket passer than a true scrambling threat. As a passer, he is more accurate and on-time than overpowering. Simpson projects as a future NFL starter but one who might need a stellar supporting cast, especially early on.\u00a0<\/p>\n DAY 2<\/p>\n 4. Carson Beck, Miami<\/p>\n A year ago, Tyler Shough surged up draft boards with a spectacular showing at the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine. No one should be surprised if Beck enjoyed a similar jump this spring.\u00a0<\/p>\n He is a classic rhythm passer, who, when comfortable, can look the part of a quality NFL starter. He offers a prototypical 6-foot-4, 220-pound frame with good arm strength, anticipation and accuracy. He has completed 69.9% of his passes over his career in two pro-style offenses at Miami and Georgia, showing the grit to handle elite competition and the criticism that comes with playing for a blue blood program. Beck is adept at throwing out of the shotgun and under center, and he\u2019s played in 52 games over his career. He\u2019s seen it all, throwing for 82 touchdowns against 30 interceptions.\u00a0<\/p>\n Unfortunately, dating back to last year at Georgia, Beck has also shown a troubling propensity to allow snowballs to turn into full-blown avalanches. He has thrown multiple interceptions in seven games over the past two seasons \u2014 a disturbing regression following the first 26 games of his career with the Bulldogs in which he never had a game with more than one pick.\u00a0<\/p>\n Beck\u2019s tape is not for the faint-hearted. It has some of the best and worst throws of this class, which makes him one of this year\u2019s most intriguing boom-or-bust candidates.\u00a0<\/p>\n Carson Beck became more turnover-prone as his college career progressed. (Photo by Tim Warner\/Getty Images) <\/p>\n 5. John Mateer<\/a>, Oklahoma<\/a><\/p>\n Speaking of boom or bust, Mateer might just be the personification of that description, offering the kind of dual-threat ability that, when operating on all cylinders, can tilt the field in his team\u2019s favor.\u00a0<\/p>\n There is no denying that Mateer failed to live up to expectations at Oklahoma in 2025 after a breathtaking debut as Washington State<\/a>\u2019s starter a year earlier. Statistics alone can paint the picture with Mateer: He was responsible for 44 touchdowns with the Cougars (including 29 passing) in 2024 and just 22 with the Sooners (14 passing) this past season.\u00a0<\/p>\n Optimists will argue that a broken bone in his right (throwing) hand was partially to blame for Mateer\u2019s struggles. When healthy, he flashes adequate accuracy for the pro game \u2014 especially given that throwing lanes are wider when opponents also have to account for his dynamic running ability.\u00a0<\/p>\n At a powerful 6-foot-1, 224 pounds, Mateer possesses the body armor to handle a heavy workload as a running quarterback, and he\u2019s shown the toughness and competitiveness scouts are searching for at the position. Mateer could return to the college game and hone his passing skills, but if he were to opt out early for the NFL, no one should be surprised if his perceived upside generated a top-100 gamble.\u00a0<\/p>\n 6. Drew Allar<\/a>, Penn State\u00a0<\/p>\n Any team willing to gamble on Mateer\u2019s perceived upside will almost certainly be just as intrigued by Allar\u2019s arm, which I believe is the strongest of this year\u2019s draft class. At 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, Allar is seemingly straight out of central casting for quarterbacks. He boasts an absolute rifle \u2014 the kind of arm every NFL team is seeking to develop.\u00a0<\/p>\n Development is needed, however, as Allar has yet to demonstrate the decision-making or accuracy needed for long-term success in the NFL. In an era of multidimensional weapons at quarterback, Allar is a throwback to a previous generation. While he isn\u2019t truly immobile in the pocket, he is relatively cement-footed in comparison to others on this list and very much a traditional drop-back passer.\u00a0<\/p>\n Finally, Allar\u2019s draft stock is currently clouded due to injury. He suffered a broken left ankle against Northwestern on Oct. 11, undergoing surgery shortly thereafter and ending his college career with the following stat line: 7,402 passing yards, 63.2%, 61 TDs, 13 INTs. With his college eligibility expired, Allar is hoping to throw for scouts prior to the 2026 draft. He\u2019ll almost certainly look terrific in doing so \u2014 but the tape shows a quarterback with more arm talent than instincts, suggesting that he\u2019ll need patience before competing for meaningful playing time in the NFL.\u00a0<\/p>\n Drew Allar might have the strongest arm in this class. (Photo by Luke Hales\/Getty Images) <\/p>\n DAY 3<\/p>\n 7. Taylen Green, Arkansas<\/p>\n In the weeks leading up to the 2018 NFL Draft, I remember having conversations with top scouts about the perceived pecking order of that year\u2019s talented QBs \u2014 a group that included No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield, as well as first-rounders Sam Darnold, Josh Allen<\/a>, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson.\u00a0<\/p>\n As you may recall, Mayfield and Darnold were largely viewed as the most pro-ready of the class, while scouts also acknowledged that neither was viewed as a “lock” to be great in the NFL. And scouts at the time argued that if a club was going to invest an early pick in a quarterback, why not gamble on the player with the highest upside (i.e. Allen or Jackson).\u00a0<\/p>\n The fact that Allen and Jackson have each matured into MVP-caliber quarterbacks is, in a nutshell, the argument for Green, a 6-foot-6, 235-pound do-it-all dynamo who is the closest thing I\u2019ve seen to Randall Cunningham in 25 years of scouting. With 94 career touchdowns scored (59 through the air), Green is a big play waiting to happen. And like Allen nearly a decade ago, Green could use the Senior Bowl to display his unique skill set.\u00a0<\/p>\n He is undeniably gifted, though a quarterback with 53 games of experience simply should not make the rudimentary mistakes he routinely did at Arkansas (and previously at Boise State), including throwing into coverage and showing below-average accuracy while doing so. A galloping athlete likely to impress in Mobile as well as the Scouting Combine, Green is going to generate some buzz as the draft approaches. But the tape suggests he\u2019s a gamble best reserved for the later rounds.\u00a0<\/p>\n 8. Garrett Nussmeier<\/a>, LSU<\/p>\n There isn\u2019t much that went right for Nussmeier and the LSU Tigers<\/a> in 2025. Rather than build on a strong 2024 campaign in which he threw for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns, Nussmeier regressed, often forcing the ball into coverage and being benched for the final month of the season.\u00a0<\/p>\n With PFF charging the Tigers\u2019 intended “pass-catchers” with an eye-popping 18 drops in his nine games this season, it isn\u2019t entirely fair that Nussmeier served as a scapegoat for LSU\u2019s struggles in the passing game. However, some of the same risky throws that Nussmeier got away with in 2024 burned him and the Tigers in 2025, as his limited arm strength became more evident.\u00a0<\/p>\n As the son of a former pro quarterback (and current New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator), Nussmeier does a lot of the “little things” right. He possesses the intangibles scouts look for at the position. Unfortunately, below-average physical traits seemingly cap Nussmeier\u2019s potential, suggesting that his NFL future is most likely as a backup. \u00a0<\/p>\n Garrett Nussmeier has the intangibles but perhaps not the physical traits needed to be an NFL starter. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox\/Getty Images) <\/p>\n 9. Kade Klubnik, Clemson<\/a><\/p>\n Like the aforementioned Nussmeier, Klubnik was the victim of his own previous success \u2014 as well as the hype that came with it. His 36 touchdown passes against just six interceptions as a junior in 2024 created huge expectations for both him and Clemson this season. So when the team struggled mightily out of the gate, the quarterback took much of the scrutiny, resulting in a perceived plummeting of his draft stock.\u00a0<\/p>\n Klubnik (and Clemson), nonetheless, rallied in the second half of the 2025 season, as the quarterback quietly completed a career-high 65.6% of his passes for 2,943 yards and 16 touchdowns. For the third consecutive year, Klubnik started every game and finished the season with less than 10 interceptions, giving him a strong 73:24 career TD-INT ratio. Those numbers are all the more impressive given that he also ran for 878 yards and 17 touchdowns.\u00a0<\/p>\n Taking better advantage of his mobility might be the easiest way to get Klubnik back on track. He is a gifted athlete who will likely prove the fastest of this year\u2019s quarterbacks at the Scouting Combine. When playing free, his ability to challenge opponents with his legs opens up passing lanes \u2014 and he possesses the arm and accuracy to exploit them.\u00a0<\/p>\n At times this season, Klubnik struggled to adapt to post-snap alterations by the defense, including in last week\u2019s 22-10 loss to Penn State. Given that he\u2019s played in 49 games for Clemson, it is fair to question whether Klubnik will ever develop the diagnostic skills needed for high-level QB play at the NFL level.\u00a0<\/p>\n The traits are there to develop, however, and Klubnik will have another opportunity to show his talents as one of the most celebrated prospects participating in this year\u2019s East-West Shrine Bowl.\u00a0<\/p>\n Rob Rang<\/a> is an NFL Draft<\/a> analyst for FOX Sports. He has been covering the NFL Draft for more than 25 years. He also works as a scout with the BC Lions of the Canadian Football League. Follow him on X @RobRang<\/a>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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