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And we reserve the right to change them based on one pre-season game, because that\u2019s how footy works, right?<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s what we\u2019ve come up with. <\/p>\n
Three teams will drop out of the eight…<\/p>\n
Because that\u2019s what happens basically every year. Since the 18-team competition began, an average of 2.9 teams have changed from the top eight year-to-year. The 2025 season was more than on trend, with four teams \u2014 Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle and Gold Coast \u2014 rising to finalist status to replace the Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Port Adelaide and Carlton. <\/p>\n
… but that doesn\u2019t mean they\u2019ll miss the finals<\/p>\n
Because as of the 2026 season, whether you like it or not, it\u2019s a 10-team finals series. If you finish between sixth and 10th, you\u2019ll qualify for the newly-introduced wildcard round \u2014 which is considered \u2018making the finals\u2019. Sixth will play 10th while seventh will do battle with eighth during the weekend previously used for the pre-finals bye. If you need a refresher, read here<\/a>. <\/p>\n One team will go from bottom 10 to top four<\/p>\n Because, again, that\u2019s what happens every year. Literally, if you\u2019re talking about the last decade, every year since 2015, at least one team has gone from missing the finals to earning the double chance. That\u2019s how quickly fortunes can change. In 2025, we saw two sides in Collingwood and Adelaide leap from the abyss to the top four. There\u2019ll be at least one again this season. <\/p>\n Errol compares Curnow to Buddy Franklin | 00:47<\/p>\n And that team will be Sydney<\/p>\n Simply, the Swans fit the bill as the perennial contender that had an unfortunate year who then launches right back into the thick of contention. After getting decimated by Brisbane in the 2024 grand final after a 17-win home-and-away campaign, Sydney won just 12 games in 2025 in the first year of Dean Cox\u2019s senior-coaching tenure. But not only do the Swans still have a win-now list, they should also get a full season out of Errol Gulden \u2014 touch wood \u2014 and most significantly have added spearhead goalkicker Charlie Curnow to their middling key forward stocks to rocket back into the flag window. Curnow was one of the biggest victims of Carlton\u2019s sobering regression last year, but with elite midfield supply in the form of Gulden, Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney in stints, there\u2019s no real reason why the dual Coleman medallist shouldn\u2019t kick 60-plus goals this year. And with a year of experience under Cox\u2019s belt, expect these Swans to play with chips on their shoulders. <\/p>\n But you could make the case for St Kilda<\/p>\n It\u2019s mighty hard to confidently put our backing behind St Kilda, which has continually done everything but inspire its fans with hope a drought-breaking flag is on the way. But after achieving a massive haul in trade and free agency \u2014 headlined by Tom De Koning, Sam Flanders and Jack Silvagni \u2014 an Adelaide-style rise isn\u2019t at all out of the realms of possibility in 2026. And while it\u2019s hard to see the Saints rising to minor premier status, a finals return after their sixth-placed 2023 finish should be the expectation \u2014 especially with 10 teams qualifying. <\/p>\n Surely the Bulldogs can play finals if 10 teams are making it \u2014 like, c\u2019mon<\/p>\n And speaking of 10 teams being able to qualify for finals, the Western Bulldogs simply have to be a part of it next year. Luke Beveridge\u2019s star-studded side has come ninth in two of the past three seasons, including agonisingly in 2025 after missing with 14 wins. But a full year of prodigious key forward Sam Darcy next to Aaron Naughton with the up-and-coming Jordan Croft will only further aid what was the league\u2019s highest-scoring team last year. Defensive vulnerability will continue to be a talking point after the club failed to make a notable back-six addition this off-season \u2014 though they added rebounder Connor Budarick \u2014 but the Dogs still have more than enough talent to challenge for a top six spot. <\/p>\n Brisbane keeps proving the Grand Final hangover doesn\u2019t exist<\/p>\n We tipped they wouldn\u2019t have a hangover in 2025, so there\u2019s no reason to again put our faith in the Lions to perform like reigning premiers \u2014 particularly after they made ridiculous improvements to their list in the off-season. Brisbane has borne the fruits of the father-son rule, adding the Ashcroft brothers and Jaspa Fletcher in recent years, but now it adds a top Academy prospect in midfielder Dan Annable to an ominous core of young Lions. And as if their bevy of young talent wasn\u2019t daunting enough for rivals, they also added two ready-made stars in Oscar Allen and Sam Draper to fill needs \u2014 with the term \u2018need\u2019 used very loosely in this context. Brisbane did lose dual premiership guns Brandon Starcevich and Callum Ah Chee, but overall, its list dramatically improved. And with beloved coach Chris Fagan still steering the ship, expect a fourth-straight genuine flag assault. <\/p>\n Taylor Adams suffers achilles tear | 00:26<\/p>\n And Geelong doesn\u2019t get hangovers at its age any more<\/p>\n The Cats continue to make pundits look silly by defying their age demographic \u2014 set to go into next season with the fourth-oldest list \u2014 and recruiting norms to not only stay in the contending frame but genuinely challenge for premierships. Chris Scott\u2019s side will be under the microscope next year after getting run off the park by Brisbane on the last Saturday in September, but with Bailey Smith and Max Holmes leading the midfield charge long-term, adding ex-Hawk James Worpel and what\u2019ll effectively be a new recruit in Tanner Bruhn, and with zero notable losses, it\u2019d take some gonads to tip a Geelong fall-off in 2026. <\/p>\n But the Giants will drop out of the eight<\/p>\n The Giants have quietly been finals disappointments in recent seasons. They were upstaged at home by Hawthorn in an elimination final last year, but the real stinger was in 2024 when they were bundled out in straight sets \u2014 each loss in devastating fashion. There\u2019s no doubting Adam Kingsley\u2019s senior-coaching credentials \u2014 and there\u2019s no doubting he\u2019s been the right hire for the orange army \u2014 but his side has concerningly lost its past four finals. The Giants added Clayton Oliver to their midfield mix this off-season, but there remain questions over what a past-his-best clearance player is really going to add to an engine room that gave up the most points from stoppage of any 2025 finalist. But just because they might drop out of the top eight doesn\u2019t mean they won\u2019t still qualify for finals via the wildcard round. <\/p>\n So will Fremantle<\/p>\n At face value, the Dockers appear too talented to drop out of the top eight. More games out of Hayden Young alongside Caleb Serong and Andy Brayshaw in that midfield will do wonders, and a key forward-line led by Josh Treacy and Patrick Voss with an improved version of Jye Amiss will also be very tough to contend with. But in what will again be a tightly-fought top eight, will they be able to win as many close games \u2014 having won nine times by three goals or less last year \u2014 in 2026? If they regress to the mean with those close results, it might be hard to match last season\u2019s winning pace. But it really shouldn\u2019t be a slide big enough to see Fremantle fall out of the top 10 completely. <\/p>\n Along with… Collingwood<\/p>\n It\u2019s hard to pick two sides, let alone three, from last year\u2019s crop of finalists to drop out of the top eight in 2026. It really is. But if there\u2019s a team closest to the cliff because of its age profile and dependence on older players to perform week-in-week-out, it\u2019s Collingwood. Ahead of last season, we tipped the Magpies to bolt back into the top four<\/a> after missing the finals completely in 2024 \u2014 but they were clearly in a win-now window with Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Jamie Elliott and Jeremy Howe all to be 33 years of age or older in 2026. Further, this year, Darcy Moore, Darcy Cameron, Jordan De Goey and Dan McStay will all tick over 30 years old, joining Jack Crisp and Tim Membrey as the other 30-plus Pies. Being over the age of 30 doesn\u2019t guarantee a fall-off is imminent, but it does suggest in most cases that your best footy is behind you. But premiership coach Craig McRae knows how to cultivate a winning formula, and again, a Collingwood slide out of the top eight doesn\u2019t necessarily mean a finals absence. <\/p>\n One of Port Adelaide or Melbourne contends for a wildcard final, and the other is bottom four<\/p>\n Port Adelaide\u2019s biggest unknown heading into 2026 doesn\u2019t revolve around its playing group as much as it does the first year at the helm for Josh Carr. The Power were led by Ken Hinkley for 13 years before Carr\u2019s appointment, with a new era now dawning at Alberton. Several retirements and a heavy list clean-out in the front half of the ground will make for an intriguing watch, particularly for a list that still boasts some of the competition\u2019s best stars. If Connor Rozee\u2019s side can stay injury-free, they loom as a genuine finals threat. But, if interruptions arise again, it could get ugly. <\/p>\n Meanwhile, there perhaps isn\u2019t a team shrouded in more mystery ahead of the new season than Melbourne, which has undergone a world of off-season change. For starters, it now has a rookie senior coach in Steven King in place. But most notably, the Demons offloaded 2021 premiership heroes Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver during the trade period. They also lost defender Judd McVee to the Dockers. But they did gain former St Kilda captain Jack Steele, along with reliable premiership forward Brody Mihocek and exciting rebounder Changkuoth Jiath. So, with Kozzy Pickett and Max Gawn also still on the front line, it\u2019s not as if there isn\u2019t enough talent for this side to win, say, 10 games to put themselves in with a sniff for a finals berth. But on the other side of the coin, an inability for new and old stars to gel, and a baptism of fire for King, could see the Demons in the doldrums. <\/p>\n Nicks signs new Crows deal | 00:29<\/p>\n The minor premier WON\u2019T go out in straight sets this time<\/p>\n Earlier this decade, the popular belief was that finishing on top of the ladder didn\u2019t matter all that much, because the minor premier kept falling short \u2014 think Richmond in 2018, Geelong in 2019, and Port Adelaide in 2020. But then the tables turned and we had three straight premiers who also topped the competition after the home-and-away season \u2014 Melbourne in 2021, Geelong in 2022, and Collingwood in 2023 \u2014 before runners-up Sydney was the exception in 2024. But last year, Adelaide crashed out of the finals in straight sets to quash that trend. But generally speaking, there\u2019s something to the idea that in a much closer competition, the club that proves itself the most during the regular season is battle-tested and truly warrants flag favouritism. <\/p>\n Essendon is a shock wildcard contender<\/p>\n Put simply, last year was a write-off for the rebuilding Bombers, with a cataclysmic injury toll preventing them from making tangible progress in year three of the Brad Scott era. And so, after back-to-back 11-win seasons in 2023 and 2024 \u2014 and regressing to the mean with injuries \u2014 there\u2019s no reason not to think Essendon can\u2019t get back to around that level in Scott\u2019s fourth campaign at the helm. And as opposed to 2025, there\u2019ll be a greater sense of urgency within the club to increase its win total. If the Bombers can get back to around the 11-win mark, they\u2019ll be among the slew of clubs in contention for 10th spot. For reference, according to respected statistical database Wheelo Ratings\u2019 model<\/a>, 11 wins gives a team more than half a chance \u2014 59.6 per cent \u2014 at a wildcard berth, while 12 wins gives a team a 90.3 per cent chance. Just imagine the talkback if their first finals win in 26 years came on wildcard weekend. <\/p>\n Andrew McGrath named new Bombers captain | 00:28<\/p>\n A coach gets sacked after making the finals<\/p>\n This is another one with a bit of grey area due to the incoming wildcard finals system. Hypothetically, if Fremantle was to qualify for the 2026 finals via ninth or 10th but then be bundled out on wildcard weekend, would Justin Longmuir still retain his position? How about Michael Voss at the Blues in an identical situation? Longmuir and Voss enter the new season as the names on the hottest of coaching seats<\/a>. Obviously, more is expected of the Dockers in terms of September success than Carlton, but Voss survived the Blues\u2019 2025 regression only by the skin of his teeth and could be in grave danger if Carlton starts slow in 2026. Yet after offloading dual Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow and losing both Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni in free agency, a wildcard berth would please the Carlton faithful to some extent. Coach sackings after a finals berth are incredibly rare \u2014 with Grant Thomas one of the unlucky ones after he was canned despite his Saints making it to September in 2006. <\/p>\n Daicos is finally going to win the Brownlow \u2014 we mean it this time<\/p>\n