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This is the season when columnists turn to prophecy, and then congratulate themselves a year later for getting some of it right.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m afraid I\u2019m about to join the club.<\/p>\n
As I predicted at the end of last year, Asia in 2025 revolved around three main forces: the blossoming bromance between US President Donald Trump and China\u2019s Xi Jinping, rising pressure on Taiwan, and a newly emboldened Kim Jong Un drawing closer to both Moscow and Beijing.<\/p>\n
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It\u2019s not going to last: US President Donald Trump with Chinese President Xi Jinping.AP<\/p>\n
These dynamics will only get more obvious in 2026. The region is heading into an increasingly precarious year, with deepening tensions that will have a cascading effect on all of us.<\/p>\n
The Trump-Xi bromance could go sour<\/p>\n
On the surface, Trump and Xi appear to have found a new warmth \u2014 but it\u2019s fragile. Xi was the winner of the trade war in 2025, which means Trump is going into this next year on the back foot. That won\u2019t be lost on Washington, no matter how loud the bluster. While the rapprochement has been welcomed by markets, a lot could go wrong. The leaders will have the opportunity to meet as many as four times in 2026, providing multiple occasions for relations to head south.<\/p>\n
And even if they don\u2019t, they\u2019ll likely remain tense, according to a 2026 forecast for United States-China relations from the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies. Almost three-quarters of respondents, comprising China experts and observers, see relations deteriorating across the board, from military and trade ties to technology. That\u2019s despite Trump\u2019s most recent decision to allow Nvidia to sell advanced chips to China, watering down years of national security safeguards. Washington says Nvidia\u2019s top products will still be restricted, but the move gives Beijing access to semiconductors at least a generation ahead of its best technology.<\/p>\n
Another front to watch: China-Japan relations<\/p>\n
Tokyo has become more vocal about the link between its own security and stability in the Taiwan Strait, a position Beijing views as provocative. The Chinese leader will see how much he can push Trump on Taiwan, the self-governed democratic island Beijing claims as its own. That will make Taipei more vulnerable.<\/p>\n
Taiwan will feel the heat even more<\/p>\n
Taiwan\u2019s President Lai Ching-te has his work cut out. He\u2019ll need to navigate a politically gridlocked legislature while trying to pass a $US40 billion ($60 billion) supplementary defence budget aimed at modernising the military and strengthening deterrence to defend against the rising threat from China. The island has already pledged to lift defence spending to 5 per cent of gross domestic product by 2030, up from over 3 per cent. But more money alone may not be enough.<\/p>\n
Related Article US intelligence sources believe that Xi wants the People\u2019s Liberation Army to be capable of an invasion by 2027. However, many military strategists suggest a full-scale invasion then is unlikely, as China\u2019s economy grapples with a slowdown and the People\u2019s Liberation Army reels from corruption probes and purges. They point to quarantine or blockade scenarios instead.<\/p>\n Beijing, which has vowed to take control of Taiwan through peaceful means but has refused to rule out doing so by using force, has ramped up military and political pressure in recent years to assert its claims. The People\u2019s Liberation Army conducted a second day of live-fire military drills to Taiwan\u2019s north on Tuesday, while China\u2019s gray-zone tactics \u2014 warplanes crossing the median line, naval patrols circling the island, cyber and information warfare \u2014 are now near-daily events. These will almost certainly continue in 2026.<\/p>\n Kim Jong Un is getting more confident<\/p>\n North Korea is among the most serious risks on Asia\u2019s security landscape. A 2025 briefing from the US Defense Intelligence Agency notes that Pyongyang has now developed an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the US mainland.<\/p>\n![\"US](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/a000104f1c12c3a96ca7309542b3aab301b1808b.jpeg\")
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