We describe our newsletter as \u201cfree,\u201d however the resources required to produce the research behind our weekly analysis are substantial. Delivering early, actionable insights consistently\u2014and making them available to the public\u2014is a deliberate investment by our firm and an approach that remains uncommon in traditional Wall Street research.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
While we occasionally highlight individual examples to illustrate accuracy, the broader value becomes clearer when viewed over a full year. Across that period, many of our articles identified complex market inflection points and highlighted companies early in their cycles\u2014long before their performance became evident by a mainstream investor audience.\u00a0<\/p>\n
For example, we offered immense benefit by preparing our readers for a local top in AI stocks in February, ahead of the April rout (reference articles below). Although the value of this has passed, our work in Q2-Q4 has only strengthened our strong 5-year track record. More recently, in Q3, the I\/O Fund nailed the Bitcoin top at a time when virtually nobody else was calling it (quite the opposite; we literally challenged \u201cthe herd\u201d in our article headline) \u2014this materialized to become an accurate view that continues to play out as soft price action in crypto persists. Given the volatility of this asset class, the value in timing a selloff cannot be overstated.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
A few weeks ago, our Q4 series on the AI Monetization Wave defended the AI opportunity by stating the era of monetization has not yet begun; an argument in sharp opposition to growing AI bubble fears. To help illustrate this, we point toward some companies that are quietly monetizing AI into the tens of billions \u2013 which is by far, the fastest growth curve the technology industry has ever seen in a 2-3 year time span. Interesting enough, the mainstream narrative is not able to recognize this.\u00a0<\/p>\n
These points, and many more like it, uniquely came from the I\/O Fund \u2013 and we openly shared them with our readers in 2025. Below, we break down quarter-by-quarter the research we provided to our readers this past year – for free – including some critical research we believe is fully in play as we position for 2026.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
I\/O Fund\u2019s AI Stock Forecast in Q1 2025: NVDA, SMH & QQQ Sell-off\u00a0Predicting the 2025 AI Correction: How the I\/O Fund Identified the Peak\u00a0<\/p>\n
The I\/O Fund has built its reputation on identifying major market trends before they materialize. In the February feature, \u2018AI Stocks Signal a Correction Before a Buying Opportunity Emerges<\/a>\u2019 Co-Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley warned of rising volatility for 2025. He noted that the market rally lacked broad support, creating a risky divergence in which stocks trend higher even as key sectors fail to reach new highs.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n For the I\/O Fund, this served as a vital cautionary signal in an overheating market \u2013 especially given that the I\/O Fund is a leading AI stock portfolio. Two months later, AI stocks sold off heavily with Nvidia stock down (25%), while VanEck Semiconductor ETF was down (22%), and Invesco QQQ ETF was down (17%) in a little over a month after we published the cautionary analysis.<\/p>\n Source:YCharts<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n NVDA, SMH, and QQQ Performance: Visualizing the (25%) Nvidia drawdown after I\/O Fund\u2019s AI market peak warning\u00a0<\/p>\n I\/O Fund\u2019s Nvidia Strategy: Navigating DeepSeek & Blackwell Delays \u00a0<\/p>\n The I\/O Fund closely tracks the supply chain data and monitors the technical levels of stocks to help our premium members make informed decisions. Despite Beth Kindig being a well-established Nvidia bull, her firm took a balanced approach headed into 2025 with yet another warning that the AI leader was likely to trade meaningfully lower due to technical signals. The analysis \u2018Where I Plan To Buy Nvidia Stock Next<\/a>\u2019 provided a buy plan for our readers and stated that Nvidia could trade below $100. The analysis played out, as we were able to buy Nvidia at $87.99, issuing a real-time trade alert that has returned 92% on that tranche since early April.\u00a0<\/p>\n Most importantly we continued our coverage during the market sell-off caused by DeepSeek fears in our article, \u2018DeepSeek Creates Buying Opportunity for Nvidia Stock<\/a>.\u2019 We reassured our readers that DeepSeek\u2019s cost-efficient AI training is a long-term catalyst for Nvidia stock. We stated, \u201cIf DeepSeek\u2019s breakthroughs are truly the key to ushering in a new paradigm of AI training and ultimately AI democratization from cost reductions, it will not be a death sentence for Nvidia; in fact, quite the opposite.\u201d Despite many stating that DeepSeek was a defining moment for AI, and stirring up the panic, the Chinese LLM is hardly spoken of today.<\/p>\n mid<\/p>\n In Q1, a few Nvidia suppliers were providing mixed guidance on the timing of Nvidia\u2019s Blackwell GB200 systems. We published an article, \u2018Nvidia Suppliers Send Mixed Signals for Delays on GB200 Systems \u2013 What It Means for NVDA Stock<\/a>\u2019, to help Nvidia investors understand the changes in the supplier commentaries and why Nvidia was likely to take a pause Q1-Q2. Later, we identified Q3 as the likely inflection point for Nvidia, which later became the strongest earnings report in nearly two years.\u00a0<\/p>\n I\/O Fund has a history of buying Nvidia at low prices. The first entry was $3.15 in December 2018, and since then, we have been able to issue buy alerts around major lows \u2013 including $10.85 on October 13th, 2022, as well as $94.48 on April 4th, 2025, and again at $87.99 on April 7th, 2025. The I\/O Fund discusses key technical levels in our weekly webinars for Advanced Market Signals Tier members.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Subscribe to Advanced Market Signals<\/a> to get real-time trade alerts for every entry and exit, portfolio access, and join weekly live webinars.<\/p>\n Q2: Navigating the AI Stock Recovery After the April Bottom\u00a0The I\/O Fund Logged 23 buys in March and April of 2025, Including NVDA and ALAB\u00a0<\/p>\n After the April bottom, AI stocks came roaring back with a vengeance. In tech investing, timing is the difference between average and extraordinary returns. For example, if an investor bought Astera Labs at the beginning of the year, the return would be only 27% compared to buying the stock at the beginning of April would have a staggering gain of 269% (as of today), a difference of 242% within a short period of one quarter. This is exactly what the I\/O Fund did, adding to current positions like Nvidia, while also building new positions in four additional lesser-known AI stocks with strong outperformance.\u00a0<\/p>\n Going back to Astera Labs, we knew that we wanted to own ALAB; however, our system was telling us that we should wait, as the odds were high heading into 2025 that we could get lower prices. We began to layer in at $79.73 on January 27th, when ALAB was more than 45% off its highs. We further issued 4 additional buy alerts, layering in at key levels, completing our accumulation at $51.10 on April 4th. Our system of using technical analysis to layer into a position gave us an 11% position in ALAB with a combined cost basis of $69.55, which made it one of our biggest winners of the year, with a 148% return in 2025.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Source: I\/O Fund\u00a0<\/p>\n Astera Labs (ALAB) Stock Performance: 269% Gains Following the April Bottom compare this to 27% return YTD in 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n I\/O Fund\u2019s Co-Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley discussed in May that his analysis foresaw the S&P 500 index reaching a new all-time high later in the year in the article, \u2018Historic Market Uncertainty Meets $7 Trillion Debt Wall: What Comes Next for the S&P 500.\u2019<\/a> Knox utilized a data-driven approach by identifying a bullish shift in the Advance-Decline line \u2013signalling healthy market breadth. He also leveraged Fibonacci levels to gauge the strength of the recovery and along with that, used better-than-expected earnings signals to predict an all-time high later in 2025. Fast forward to December 2025, and Knox\u2019s forecast has become reality as the S&P 500 officially surged to its new all-time high.\u00a0<\/p>\n AMD Outperformed Nvidia in 2025\u00a0<\/p>\n In June, AMD offered more details on the release of their groundbreaking GPUs with little fanfare in the markets \u2013 which is par for the course as AMD has a history of being forgotten about until the company can no longer be ignored. In the analysis, \u2018AMD vs Nvidia: The AI Stock That Could Win by 2028<\/a>,\u2019 we offered our readers a timely discussion on AMD’s strengths and how thinking AMD is down for the count could be a costly mistake. AMD stock is up 68% compared to Nvidia\u2019s return of 31% during this period, a difference of 37%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Source: YCharts<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n Visualizing AMD\u2019s 37% Outperformance Over Nvidia Post-I\/O Fund June Analysis\u00a0<\/p>\n Broadcom\u2019s Silent Rise: Building the Backbone of AI Inference\u00a0<\/p>\n While everyone is focused on the Nvidia stock, Broadcom is quietly cementing its position for the second spot. The company specializes in custom silicon and networking required for the next phase of AI, particularly for the inference trend. Broadcom\u2019s custom XPU solutions provides Big Tech something that AI GPUs can\u2019t: massive cost savings and energy efficiency at scale. We have discussed in depth in our article, \u2018This AI Stock is Set to Surge from Inference Demand<\/a>.\u2019\u00a0<\/p>\n Q3 Market Bifurcation: AI Leadership Emerges as Crypto Stalls\u00a0<\/p>\n April proved challenging, but Q3 marked a critical bifurcation in the market. As crypto rolled over and many debt-laden AI stocks softened, a select group of lesser-known AI names continued to advance\u2014quietly separating leadership from excess.\u00a0<\/p>\n Crypto Peaked in Q3 as the Herd Stayed Bullish\u00a0<\/p>\n The I\/O Fund has long held that risk management should carry equal weight to alpha generation. As a result, some of our most important wins are not always reflected in returns, but in losses avoided. In August, we hosted a rare, public one-hour webinar\u2014our only free webinar of the year\u2014to walk through why a Bitcoin selloff was increasingly likely. At the time, Co-Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley was confident enough in his analysis to openly challenge lofty crypto price targets, referring to consensus optimism as \u201cthe herd.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Our Bitcoin calls are grounded in a systematic framework that combines technical analysis, on-chain data, and global liquidity trends. While many money managers were calling for Bitcoin prices to double in August, Knox accurately identified a market top through a series of research pieces, including the article \u2018Is Bitcoin\u2019s Bull Run Nearing a Top? What the Herd Missed at $16,000 and is Missing Now<\/a>\u2019as well as the accompanying webinar<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n The clip below is from our Free Bitcoin Webinar in August, explaining that we were in the final Wave 5\u00a0for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Avoiding the AI Bubble Trap: I\/O Fund\u2019s Timely Nvidia Q3 Call\u00a0<\/p>\n While others were busy discussing the AI bubble, we continued to track Big Tech Capex to predict Nvidia\u2019s strong Q3 results. Nvidia\u2019s stock experienced a rare price target reduction after reporting weaker-than-expected Q2 results and increased competition from Broadcom. The company faced numerous headwinds from China and production delays in their current generation of GPUs during that period. We stayed calm and crunched the hard data on Q2 capex numbers and what is coming down the pipe for Q3. We also came up with an updated buy plan to our readers in the article that we published in September, \u2018Updated Nvidia Stock Price Target – AI \u201cBubble\u201d Narrative Ignores Re-Acceleration in Big Tech Capex<\/a>.\u2019\u00a0<\/p>\n Reddit Stock, an Overlooked AI Play\u00a0<\/p>\n During this quarter, the I\/O Fund covered Reddit, ahead of the stock leading off the November lows in the article Reddit Stock Blows the Doors Off – Can it Last?<\/a> We discussed Reddit\u2019s strong Q2 earnings and even issued three buy alerts between $190 – $196. Despite having far fewer users than Facebook, Reddit ranks among the most visited U.S websites, benefiting significantly from Google\u2019s AI-driven search changes. This visibility has fueled growth but also introduces risk. The analysis explores how investors can evaluate this opportunity and identify the signs of peak growth and recognize potential catalysts that could further influence Reddit\u2019s stock.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Q4: The I\/O Fund\u2019s AI Monetization Calls\u00a0<\/p>\n While many investors are wondering whether the AI trend is entering dot-com territory, we believe AI\u2019s most powerful move has not even begun.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n In a series of analyses on the incoming AI monetization wave, the I\/O Fund has laid out a data-driven case that AI is on the cusp of monetizing; a sharp rebuttal to those who believe AI is topping. Earlier this month, we\u00a0connected the dots on Nvidia\u2019s earnings report, the strongest in nearly two years, and highlighted why Broadcom\u2019s commentary is quietly signaling that the best is yet to come.\u00a0<\/p>\n At select moments, IOF takes a firm view that diverges sharply from prevailing market consensus. In many of these instances, we are among the few\u2014if not the only\u2014voices expressing that view in real time, grounded in deep analysis and conviction.\u00a0<\/p>\n We did this recently by standing against the prevailing, negative views on Big Tech capex by pointing out we are likely on the cusp of an AI monetization wave \u00a0<\/p>\n Predicting Nvidia\u2019s $20 Trillion Market Cap: The 2030 Roadmap\u00a0<\/p>\n We revised our $10 trillion market cap target to $20 trillion in the article here<\/a>. We offered a data-driven, fundamentally grounded case for how Nvidia can realistically reach a $20 trillion valuation by 2030. This is supported by Nvidia\u2019s aggressive 1-year product roadmap, an impenetrable software ecosystem through CUDA to maintain a near-monopoly on training, and its evolution into a full-stack AI systems provider as the inference market intensifies. When these elements are modeled together \u2014 alongside the rapid expansion in global AI infrastructure capex \u2014 the path to $20 trillion becomes less sensational and more a reflection of compounding fundamentals. Under our framework, Nvidia\u2019s data center segment would need to grow at a 36% CAGR through 2030 to support such a market capitalization\u2014a trajectory we view as achievable<\/a> given the company\u2019s roadmap visibility.\u00a0 Our CEO and Lead Tech Analyst, Beth Kindig, joined<\/a> Charles Payne of Fox Business Network on his show \u2018Making Money with Charles Payne\u2019, after Nvidia\u2019s stellar Q3 results to defend the $20 trillion market cap target.\u00a0<\/p>\n AI Growth Cycle: Decoding Big Tech\u2019s Record CapEx\u00a0<\/p>\n Big Tech\u2019s capital spending, the core metric for the AI cycle, continued to impress in the Q3 earnings season. Q3 CapEx rose 19% QoQ and 75% YoY – which is the strongest growth we’ve seen this year. Amazon\u2019s Andy Jassy captured the sentiment on his Q3 earnings call: \u201cThe faster we grow, the more CapEx we end up spending\u2026 We don\u2019t procure it unless we see significant signals of demand.\u201d His comments underscore the durability of AI-driven demand.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Some high-profile analyst firms claim the CapEx boom is a one-time event \u2013 and we wrote a data-driven rebuttal to this idea in the article Big Tech\u2019s $405B Bet: Why AI Stocks Are Set Up for a Strong 2026<\/a>. AI infrastructure is continuously advancing, and this requires successive generations of hardware and networking upgrades every one to two years as model architectures, memory bandwidth, and power requirements scale exponentially.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Incoming AI Monetization Wave\u00a0<\/p>\n In the analysis, \u2018The AI Revenue Leader Nobody Is Talking About\u2014Second Only to Nvidia Stock<\/a>.\u2019 We highlight several key metrics from Meta\u2019s Q3 earnings report that illustrate the company is offering measurable returns on its AI investments. Perhaps most surprising, we believe Meta may now rank only behind Nvidia in AI revenue \u2014 surpassing Microsoft in the process. The analysis looks beyond the headline numbers to examine what\u2019s driving AI\u2019s second-largest revenue engine.\u00a0<\/p>\n This quarter, our firm also covered Micron, a stock up 6X compared to Nvidia this year in the article Micron Stock Up 120% YTD: What the HBM Memory Leader Plans for 2026.<\/a> Micron is no longer tied to consumer device cycles. Instead, high bandwidth memory (HBM) had led to higher margins and multi-year supplier agreements, resulting in a leveraged approach to participate in the AI infrastructure buildout.\u00a0<\/p>\n Conclusion:\u00a0<\/p>\n While the rest of the market spent this year debating AI bubbles, geopolitical fears, and supply chain bottlenecks, our team remained laser-focused on outcomes. Rather than responding to headlines, we work hard to anticipate shifts and publish data-driven analysis to get in front of the market. This approach led us to flag the April correction in February, surface multiple AI winners throughout the year, and help protect capital during the crypto downturn.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Over the past five years, the I\/O Fund has delivered cumulative returns of 210%\u2014performance that would rank us #5 among hedge funds and #2 among ETFs. Notably, this figure does not yet reflect our strong 2025 performance.\u00a0<\/p>\n Subscribe to Advanced Market Signals<\/a> to get real-time trade alerts for every entry and exit, portfolio access, and join weekly live webinars. Join now.<\/a><\/p>\n Please note: The I\/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund\u2019s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock\u2019s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.<\/p>\n Recommended Reading:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"We describe our newsletter as \u201cfree,\u201d however the resources required to produce the research behind our weekly analysis…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":384498,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[256,254,255,64,63,105],"class_list":{"0":"post-384497","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-artificial-intelligence","8":"tag-ai","9":"tag-artificial-intelligence","10":"tag-artificialintelligence","11":"tag-au","12":"tag-australia","13":"tag-technology"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/384497","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=384497"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/384497\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/384498"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=384497"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=384497"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=384497"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}