New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.<\/a><\/p>\nYou\u2019d be silly to try to predict what\u2019s coming.<\/p>\n
But let\u2019s have a go anyway.<\/p>\n
OSCAR PIASTRI WILL BECOME MCLAREN\u2019S LEAD DRIVER<\/p>\n
This isn\u2019t a particularly bold prediction. The trajectory makes it clear. Oscar Piastri might have lose the title last season, but his rate of improvement strongly suggests he\u2019s destined to surpass teammate and new champion Lando Norris sooner rather than later.<\/p>\n
Just compare the headline statistics.<\/p>\n
Races head to head<\/p>\n
2023: Norris ahead 14-4 (78-22 per cent)<\/p>\n
2024: Norris ahead 16-8 (66-33 per cent)<\/p>\n
2025: Norris ahead 12-9 in races (57-43 per cent)<\/p>\n
Qualifying head to head<\/p>\n
2023: 16-6 in qualifying (75-25 per cent)<\/p>\n
2024: 20-4 in qualifying (83-17 per cent)<\/p>\n
2025: 13-11 in qualifying (54-46 per cent)<\/p>\n
Points head to head<\/p>\n
2023: Norris ahead 205-97 in points (68-32 per cent)<\/p>\n
2024: Norris ahead 374-292 in points (56-47 per cent)<\/p>\n
2025: Norris ahead 423-410 in points (51-49 per cent)<\/p>\n
Piastri\u2019s share of McLaren\u2019s results has quickly and steadily increased every year he\u2019s raced, and there\u2019s no reason to think Piastri\u2019s rate of improvement should slow significantly in 2026.<\/p>\n
The Australian\u2019s ascendancy to the top of Formula 1 will continue.<\/p>\n
PIT TALK PODCAST: After a rare three-way title decider in Abu Dhabi, Michael and Matt run the rule over the 2025 grid to pick the season\u2019s 10 best performers \u2014 and the drivers deserving of dishonourable mentions.<\/p>\n
NORRIS WILL DEVELOP HIS KILLER INSTINCT<\/p>\n
That\u2019s not to say Norris will simply hand over his new status as top dog without a fight.<\/p>\n
The Briton is a confidence driver, and the boost he\u2019ll get from having the No. 1 on his car shouldn\u2019t be discounted. It would be surprising to see a return of the early wobbles that almost derailed his 2025 campaign.<\/p>\n
He will be a more formidable benchmark for Piastri and the entire Formula 1 field as the reigning champion. He\u2019ll be more consistent, more robust, more assertive.<\/p>\n
These are the sorts of qualities he\u2019s often been knocked for not having. Norris himself said early in 2025 that he wanted to prove it was possible to win the championship without the sort of killer instinct drivers in Max Verstappen\u2019s mould possess \u2014 that is, the my-way-or-crash approach to racing.<\/p>\n
He succeeded in that task, winning the title his way. But with a world championship trophy on his mantelpiece, there\u2019ll be no need for the sort of deference he expressed so often in 2025.<\/p>\n
The elbows will come out \u2014 and stay out.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Clive Mason\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
THIS ISN\u2019T THE END FOR PAPAYA RULES<\/p>\n
Piastri\u2019s inevitable rise and Norris\u2019s championship defence will present the most complicated set of circumstances yet for McLaren\u2019s papaya rules, the internal racing code to which the team surely sorely wishes it hadn\u2019t given such a fruity name, at least in public.<\/p>\n
The team\u2019s pursuit of fairness in 2025 was laudable but often seen as too interventionist. Piastri being told to hand second place to Norris at the Italian Grand Prix after the Briton\u2019s slow pit stop was probably the defining act under these rules, and it also coincided with the beginning of the Australian\u2019s decline.<\/p>\n
The team and its drivers have given every indication that the precedents set in 2025 and earlier will continue to apply in 2026.<\/p>\n
But with more titles likely on the line and with two drivers more closely matched than ever, it\u2019s hard to believe McLaren will be able to skate through as unscathed as it did in 2025.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Clive Rose\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
MERCEDES WILL ACHIEVE A 2014 REPEAT\u2026<\/p>\n
Rumours have been circulating for months in the F1 paddock that Mercedes\u2019s new power unit will be the one to beat in 2026, the first season featuring new engine rules since 2014.<\/p>\n
The 2014 season, of course, ushered in an era of unprecedented dominance for Mercedes.<\/p>\n
That year\u2019s Mercedes car was more than 0.8 seconds faster than any other over a single lap. The team won all but three races that year to claim both championships easily, even amid the animosity between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg.<\/p>\n
After four years in the competitive wilderness, unable to master the ground-effect regulations introduced in 2022, this year\u2019s reset could see the German marque returned to the top \u2014 and clearly some in the paddock believe that\u2019s inevitable.<\/p>\n
And if it looks anything like 2014, the other 10 teams could be in for a long old season.<\/p>\n
…BUT F1 CATCH-UP RULES WILL PREVENT A BLOW-OUT<\/p>\n
There is one saving grace in the event Mercedes turns up with a fire-breather of a motor.<\/p>\n
Formula 1, terrified of a 2014 repeat, has inserted some clauses in the regulations that will allow any engine manufacturer to catch up if they\u2019re too far behind.<\/p>\n
Measurements will be taken in six-round chunks. Any motor that\u2019s between 2 per cent and 4 per cent slower than the best will be allowed one upgrade. If it\u2019s more than 4 per cent off the benchmark, it will be handed two upgrade chances.<\/p>\n
Of course engine development isn\u2019t the work of a moment. There\u2019s a reason power unit development for 2026 has been running longer than it has for the cars themselves.<\/p>\n
But given the power units are so new \u2014 given we\u2019re still so early in the development cycle \u2014 even one upgrade could be effective to make a big difference.<\/p>\n
It means there\u2019s a good chance, even if we start with one manufacturer clearly ahead, that we end with two or three closely matched.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Bryn Lennon\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
FOUR DRIVERS WILL FIGHT FOR THE TITLE IN ABU DHABI<\/p>\n
Those engine rules will play a key role in generating Formula 1\u2019s first four-way driver showdown since 2010, when Red Bull Racing teammates Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber, Ferrari\u2019s Fernando Alonso and McLaren\u2019s Lewis Hamilton all went to Abu Dhabi with a shot at the title.<\/p>\n
Piastri and Norris, equipped with Mercedes engines, are sure to be there. Even if those engine rumours are wide of the mark, there\u2019s no indication the German marque has dropped the ball, which should stand McLaren in good stead either way.<\/p>\n
George Russell will finally get his title chance after toiling for four years out of contention. The works team is sure to reap the most rewards from any engine advantage, at least early in the year.<\/p>\n
And can we really discount Max Verstappen? Red Bull\u2019s first in-house engine has long been the focus of speculation over underperformance, but it\u2019s since been revealed only it and the Mercedes motor have exploited a loophole around compression ratios that could give both brands a meaningful power boost.<\/p>\n
With the team ending 2025 operating at a high level again, the Dutchman will be in a strong position to reclaim championship status a thrilling title decider.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Mark Thompson\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
GEORGE RUSSELL WILL WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP<\/p>\n
Unfortunately for him, though, it\u2019ll be Russell who\u2019ll get the chocolates.<\/p>\n
While the Briton has lamented arriving at Mercedes just as it fell away from the head of the field, he wouldn\u2019t have been ready for this championship chance had it come much earlier. Even if he\u2019d beaten Hamilton in a competitive Mercedes, there\u2019s too much evidence to suggest he\u2019d have overreached and fumbled on the journey.<\/p>\n
His 2025 season, however, banished all those doubts. Extracting the most from his inconsistent Mercedes at pretty much every race, he showed himself capable of taking over the team leadership from the outbound Hamilton at a crucial moment, when the team is hoping to return to title contention.<\/p>\n
He did so despite the team hesitating on his contract renewal too.<\/p>\n
Our end-of-season driver ratings ranked him as 2025\u2019s second-best driver, behind only Verstappen.<\/p>\n
The drivers themselves ranked him third, behind only the Dutchman and world champion Norris.<\/p>\n
In 2026 he\u2019ll leave Abu Dhabi in top spot.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA \/ AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n
LESS THAN HALF THE GRID WILL FINISH IN MELBOURNE\u2026 AND PIASTRI WILL BE ONE OF THEM<\/p>\n
There have been 39 Australian grands prix, but none has featured an Australian on the podium.<\/p>\n
Of course most of those seasons didn\u2019t feature an Australian in podium-contending machinery. It\u2019s what was so exciting about Piastri\u2019s front-row start last year in a McLaren that clearly had a shot at winning the race.<\/p>\n
Norris eventually converted, but only after Piastri spun off the road with the sudden arrival of rain while challenging his teammate for first place.<\/p>\n
Surely he\u2019ll get another chance this year.<\/p>\n
But if Piastri is to atone for the missed chance this year, he\u2019ll first have to finish.<\/p>\n
The last time the engine rules changed, in 2014, only 14 cars made it to the chequered flag, and only 11 finished on the lead lap. One of them \u2014 Daniel Ricciardo, who finished second \u2014 was later disqualified for breaching fuel-flow rules, which came with the new motors.<\/p>\n
Reliability will be a major storyline in 2026, especially early in the year. Making it to the finish will be half the battle.<\/p>\n
If Piastri\u2019s car makes it to the flag, expect to see him spraying the bubbly.<\/p>\n
(Photo by WILLIAM WEST \/ AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n
LEWIS HAMILTON WILL WIN ANOTHER RACE\u2026<\/p>\n
Notably absent from the list of title contenders is Lewis Hamilton, whose pursuit of a happy final chapter to his career will continue with limited success.<\/p>\n
He will, however, find some satisfaction in 2025, winning his first grand prix in red, breaking his year-long podium drought.<\/p>\n
Hamilton will find an ally in the new regulations, having spoken openly about his distaste for the ground-effect aerodynamics that played a significant role in his downfall.<\/p>\n
This year\u2019s new regulations will allow him to put in more of those electric performances for which all the greats are renowned, one of which will get him onto the top step.<\/p>\n
…BUT FERRARI STILL WON\u2019T BE IN TITLE CONTENTION\u2026<\/p>\n
Sadly for him, though, is that this Ferrari still won\u2019t be a title contender. The competitive second place in the 2024 constructors championship will fade into distant memory as the team struggles for form.<\/p>\n
Some of that will be down to engine \u2014 don\u2019t forget Ferrari struggled with the previous change in power unit regulations too. But there\u2019ll also be car problems to contend with, especially as the year drags on. In 2022, the previous change in chassis regulations, Ferrari started strongly but faded badly.<\/p>\n
We saw already in 2025 that fault lines have emerged inside Maranello, applying unnecessary pressure to the team just as it needed to be operating at its best. These things tend to have a long tail, and 2026 will suffer as a result.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Peter Fox\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
\u2026SO CHARLES LECLERC WILL MAKE A MOMENTOUS CALL<\/p>\n
That\u2019ll be doubly bad news for Ferrari, for whom an uncompetitive season will risk it losing talismanic driver Charles Leclerc.<\/p>\n
Leclerc, dubbed il Predestinato for his central role to Ferrari\u2019s planned-for success, has stuck fat with the team even as it handed his dud car after dud car. The Monegasque desperately wants to win with the Italian team, and that emotional bond has been strong enough to outweigh the fact he\u2019s been able to turn only five of his remarkable 27 poles into wins.<\/p>\n
But he described 2026 as \u201cnow or never\u201d for Ferrari\u2019s championship hopes under this set of rules. At 29 years old this October, Leclerc is entering the prime of his career, and it\u2019s hard to see that emotional bond being strong enough to survive the prospect of another half-decade locked out of title contention.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Carl DE SOUZA \/ AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n
TWO F1 BIG FISH WILL SWIM AWAY FROM THE SPORT<\/p>\n
Leclerc won\u2019t be the only big mover this year.<\/p>\n
More than half the grid will be out of contract at the end of this season, with as many as 14 of 22 seats up for grabs.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s not by accident. Drivers have prioritised mobility in the event their team flops under the new rules.<\/p>\n
Those 14 don\u2019t include Verstappen, who will reportedly be free to leave Red Bull Racing if he\u2019s outside the top two in the drivers championship at around the halfway mark of the year.<\/p>\n
But he won\u2019t be the big fish making the biggest splash this year.<\/p>\n
Hamilton is racing at Ferrari on a \u2018multiyear\u2019 deal that, at least semantically, puts him in his final season at the Italian team. Alonso is also explicitly up for renewal.<\/p>\n
By the end of the season they\u2019ll have made 853 grand prix starts between them and won at least 137 grands prix and nine championships.<\/p>\n
F1 will lose at least one of them at the end of the year.<\/p>\n
Alonso has already suggested he\u2019ll retire if Aston Martin is competitive, considering his mission to rebuild the team complete. But could he really walk away from a potential title tilt if it looks possible?<\/p>\n
Hamilton, meanwhile, will be determined not to end his career on a low point. If Leclerc walks out and Ferrari embarks on a bout of bloodletting, he may not get the chance to dictate his own terms.<\/p>\n
At least one of them will go. Don\u2019t be surprised if both leave the grid.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Joe Portlock\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
YUKI TSUNODA WILL BE IN DEMAND DESPITE BEING SACKED<\/p>\n
It\u2019s deeply unlikely we\u2019ll make it to the end of 2026 with only a couple of changes when so many drivers are out of contract.<\/p>\n
Added to their list must be Yuki Tsunoda, who\u2019s been sidelined by Red Bull Racing this year.<\/p>\n
A driver of his experience and speed \u2014 remember his 2024 season rather than his 2025 disaster \u2014 could be useful to several midfield outfits.<\/p>\n
His Honda connection could make him an obvious Aston Martin candidate if Alonso were to retire and if the team were unable to attract Leclerc as a race-winning replacement \u2014 although, who knows, Lance Stroll might decide the time is right to exit too.<\/p>\n
Tsunoda could be a candidate to replace Esteban Ocon at Haas if the Frenchman doesn\u2019t lift his game. While Haas is backed by Honda rival Toyota, both brands value Japanese representation.<\/p>\n
He\u2019d be a good signing for Alpine, though it\u2019s unclear whether future management there would take him \u2014 see below \u2014 or he could end up in Audi colours if Nico H\u00fclkenberg were sent back to retirement by Gabriel Bortoleto.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s not on the grid, but Tsunoda could be a major player in the driver market.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Mark Thompson\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
THIS WON\u2019T BE ISACK HADJAR\u2019S LAST SEASON<\/p>\n
Isack Hadjar will take his place in F1\u2019s ejector seat this year, following in the footsteps of Sergio P\u00e9rez (sacked), Liam Lawson (demoted) and Yuki Tsunoda (sacked) in the last 14 months.<\/p>\n
Signing a contract to partner Max Verstappen at Red Bull Racing has been career poison.<\/p>\n
Hadjar\u2019s promotion bodes poorly for the 21-year-old with only one F1 season under his belt \u2014 and that season, it\u2019s worth remembering, was announced with little enthusiasm from his Red Bull bosses at the end of 2024.<\/p>\n
But there\u2019s reason for hope for the Frenchman.<\/p>\n
This year\u2019s sweeping rule changes are a clean slate for Red Bull Racing. The quirks of the team\u2019s recent cars that made them almost impossible to drive for anyone other than Verstappen can be expunged for good.<\/p>\n
Hadjar will get a far leveller playing field on which to build his case, certainly compared to Lawson and Tsunoda.<\/p>\n
Unlike them, Hadjar will get a second season at Milton Keynes.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Mark Thompson\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
CHRISTIAN HORNER WILL CONFIRM HIS COMEBACK<\/p>\n
It\u2019s been clear almost from the moment of his shock sacking that Christian Horner isn\u2019t done with Formula 1.<\/p>\n
But the opportunity will have to be right. He\u2019s not looking to simply become another team boss exposed to the whims of an owner. He\u2019ll want a stake in the team.<\/p>\n
Alpine has long been considered his most likely destination. Despite protestations on the contrary, the Renault-owned team is reportedly open to investment.<\/p>\n
Reports this week suggest it\u2019s not just likely but imminent.<\/p>\n
Dutch paper De Telegraaf suggests a Horner-led consortium will buy the 24 per cent stake in the team owned by a collection of North American interests. Germany\u2019s Auto Motor und Sport has reported Horner will acquire a majority stake.<\/p>\n
With the Englishman at the helm, it\u2019s hard to see a serious role for the bombastic Flavio Briatore as de facto team boss. Horner will surely gladly take that role.<\/p>\n
It will awkwardly enter him into a business relationship with arch rival Toto Wolff, who will supply Alpine with Mercedes engines. It will also make him Pierre Gasly\u2019s boss for a second time.<\/p>\n
Change can only be good for the wayward Alpine team. Horner\u2019s arrival will certainly meet the definition of change.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Mark Thompson\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
JACK DOOHAN ISN\u2019T DONE WITH F1<\/p>\n
It\u2019s all too late for Jack Doohan, whose F1 chance was collateral damage in Alpine\u2019s dire 2025 season.<\/p>\n
After being dropped just six rounds into the season, the Australian appears to have now cut ties with the French squad.<\/p>\n
But the F1 door isn\u2019t completely closed for Doohan.<\/p>\n
The Australian is expected to compete for Kondo Racing in Japan\u2019s Super Formula this season despite a crash-prone appearance in testing late last year.<\/p>\n
Kondo Racing is closely linked with Toyota, which will strengthen its ties with Haas this season as a sort of soft entry into Formula 1.<\/p>\n
Rumours suggest the arrangement could see Doohan land a reserve role with Haas for 2026, keeping the F1 door ajar.<\/p>\n
And as we\u2019ve seen in recent years, there are often opportunities for reserve drivers in a 24-race season.<\/p>\n
Don\u2019t be surprised to see the Queenslander back in an F1 car this year.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Mark Thompson\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
CARLOS SAINZ TAKES WILLIAMS BACK TO THE TOP STEP<\/p>\n
Last time the engine rules changes and Mercedes rocketed up the order, customer team Williams capitalised, moving up the championship thanks to its engine advantage.<\/p>\n
It had been a woeful ninth with just five points the previous season, and it eventually faded to the same position after the sugar hit of the engine rules.<\/p>\n
This time, however, Williams is a far more solid team. Its progress over the past two seasons has been clear, culminating with a pair of meritorious podiums in 2025.<\/p>\n
Those two podiums came via star signing Carlos Sainz, whose Ferrari axing looked like less and less of a hindrance through the year.<\/p>\n
After a bumpy start to life at Grove, Sainz found his sweet spot by the end of the year, comfortably eclipsing teammate Alex Albon.<\/p>\n
If Williams repeats its 2014 bounce, Sainz will be the one to capitalise.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Rudy Carezzevoli\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
ADRIAN NEWEY\u2019S MAGIC TOUCH COMPLETES EL PLAN FOR FERNANDO ALONSO<\/p>\n
While power unit performance will be decisive this year, the dual chassis and engine rule changes mean aerodynamic performance will still play a significant role, especially for any team that exploits any yet-to-be-declared loopholes.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s one designer every team wants in this scenario. Luckily for Aston Martin, Adrian Newey is inside the tent.<\/p>\n
Newey has an unimpeachable title-winning record, and he\u2019s been working on Aston Martin\u2019s 2026 car in the team\u2019s state-of-the-art facilities for almost a year.<\/p>\n
It will have struck some alarm into the hearts of rivals to read Newey has found these rules to more open and free than he\u2019d first thought.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s good news for Fernando Alonso, who\u2019s looking for his first victory in 13 years.<\/p>\n
The evergreen Spaniard\u2019s pursuit of win 33 has been a key storyline since his spate of podiums in 2023, though the team\u2019s form has declined precipitously ever since.<\/p>\n
Newey, though, will change all that and finally make good on Aston Martin\u2019s massive investment on this year.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Andrej ISAKOVIC \/ AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n
CADILLAC WILL SCORE POINTS IN BIZARRE AUSTRALIAN OPENER<\/p>\n
Cadillac has been doing little more than play down expectations for its first season. While its arriving at a time of massive rule changes that on paper level the playing field, that also means that there\u2019s no way for it to shortcut its way to competitiveness by pinching staff \u2014 who come with knowledge \u2014 from rival teams.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s starting from zero and will have to earn every step up the ladder.<\/p>\n
Some predictions have been so sober as to forecast a pointless season that will be deemed a success if both cars qualify for every race.<\/p>\n
But it\u2019s unlikely the team will be so far adrift that it can\u2019t spring a surprise or two.<\/p>\n
When Haas made its debut in 2016 \u2014 a very different era with very different rules \u2014 its scored points on debut in Melbourne.<\/p>\n
It\u2019ll take a wacky race to repeat the feat, but the first grand prix of a new-rules era will fit the bill, and Cadillac will walk away from Melbourne with a point.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Alfredo ESTRELLA \/ AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n
COMPRESSION RATIOS WON\u2019T BE THE ONLY TECHNICAL CONTROVERSY<\/p>\n
The new engines haven\u2019t hit the track yet, but already the sport has its first technical controversy.<\/p>\n
Mercedes and Red Bull have both found ways to circumvent rules dictating a maximum compression ratio of 16:1.<\/p>\n
The compression ratio is the difference in volume in an engine\u2019s cylinder chamber when the piston is at the bottom of its crank (allowing fuel and air in) and when it\u2019s at the top (igniting the mixture).<\/p>\n
A higher crank ratio means the fuel and air is more heavily compressed when it ignites, which creates more power.<\/p>\n
Mercedes has Red Bull have reportedly found a way to ensure the compression ratio is at the required 16:1 when measured in the garage by the FIA but increases when it\u2019s in action on track, thereby generating more power.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a grey area that\u2019s unlikely to be clarified before 2027.<\/p>\n
But just because this loophole has been exposed as being exploited now doesn\u2019t mean other teams aren\u2019t pushing the boundaries elsewhere.<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re Honda or Audi or Ferrari, you might be perfectly happy having the spotlight on compression ratios knowing that no-one is looking at some other element worth similar or more performance.<\/p>\n
And that\u2019s only engines \u2014 there are sure to be other loopholes being exploited in the chassis regulations too.<\/p>\n
Their discovery will be half the fun \u2014 and half the battle \u2014 of 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There\u2019s no rest for Formula 1 in this short off-season. The countdown is on to car launches 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