<\/p>\n
Nibali\u2019s analysis begins with how much the peloton itself has evolved. In his view, today\u2019s racing environment makes sustained attacking far harder than it was even a decade ago. \u201cThe peloton is now at an extremely high level, and then there are those who are simply out of scale,\u201d he explained. \u201cWe used to race at an average of 42 kilometres per hour, today it is 47.\u201d<\/p>\n
That increase, Nibali stressed, is not down to training alone. \u201cFive kilometres difference that is not only linked to preparation, but also to the racing package. The bike, the handlebars, the saddle, the seatpost, the wheels, the shoes, the socks, the shorts. Everything is more performant.\u201d<\/p>\n
The consequence is a peloton that no longer gives riders space to gamble. \u201cTo attack when the speed is 45 on average, you need to go at 50 kilometres per hour,\u201d Nibali said. \u201cThe bar is raised and you have to hold that speed for longer, because the bunch does not let you go. That is why today it has become harder to go in the break and many riders give up.\u201d<\/p>\n
Pogacar\u2019s strength and the price it demands<\/p>\n
Within that context, Nibali sees Pogacar as a rare exception, a rider capable of forcing the race onto his terms. But even that ability has limits. \u201cThe exception is Pogacar, who has remarkable explosiveness, then settles into his own rhythm, sending everyone else into the red,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd when you are in the red, it takes a long time to recover.\u201d<\/p>\n
That effort, Nibali warned, carries a lasting cost. \u201cBefore you manage to clear the lactic acid, your legs go into crisis, and it can even take a week before you properly recover. When you race against Tadej, that is the main problem.\u201d<\/p>\n
Yet it is precisely because Pogacar can win so often through force that Nibali believes Milano-Sanremo presents a different challenge. \u201cPerhaps his limit, if you can even call it a limit, is that he thinks he can manage everything with strength,\u201d he said. \u201cLook at Milano-Sanremo: he tries to drop everyone on the climb, without thinking about the possibility of winning it the way I did, on the descent.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Poggio moment that decided Milano-Sanremo 2025<\/p>\n
Nibali was unequivocal when revisiting the decisive exchange between Pogacar and Van der Poel on the Poggio. \u201cWhen Pogacar attacked and Van der Poel kept him in his sights, I immediately said that if Tadej was not careful, the other would counterattack and leave him there,\u201d he recalled. \u201cOne second later that is exactly what happened, and he almost dropped him for real.\u201d<\/p>\n
What followed, in Nibali\u2019s view, was the turning point of Milano-Sanremo. \u201cAt the top they looked at each other, but Tadej understood that the other still had enough to leave him behind, and he almost paid for it. In my opinion, he lost Milano-Sanremo at that exact moment.\u201d<\/p>\n
Van der Poel\u2019s advantage did not end on the climb. \u201cThe other masterpiece came in the sprint,\u201d Nibali added, \u201cmanaged the way someone does who knows exactly how to handle those situations.\u201d<\/p>\n
Why tactics still matter at Milano-Sanremo<\/p>\n
Despite its distance, Nibali remains adamant that Milano-Sanremo continues to reward riders who read the race rather than overpower it. \u201cIn Milano-Sanremo, the sprinter is always stronger,\u201d he said. \u201cEven if it is 300 kilometres, there is not that much difference.\u201d<\/p>\n
Only under very different conditions do the balance of power truly shift. \u201cIt is different if you have done 270 kilometres with 5,000 metres of climbing, because then the values level out and you might win the sprint.\u201d<\/p>\n
As for Pogacar, Nibali has little doubt the world champion will keep trying. \u201cHe has drawn up the plan of what he wants to try to win,\u201d he said. \u201cHe will race in his own way again, trying to drop everyone.\u201d<\/p>\n
But Nibali\u2019s warning is clear. At Milano-Sanremo, where timing, nerve and tactical clarity can outweigh raw watts, Pogacar may need more than just strength to finally claim the Monument that still eludes him.<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Nibali\u2019s analysis begins with how much the peloton itself has evolved. In his view, today\u2019s racing environment…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":387149,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[569],"tags":[64,63,784,77973,167052,85,6494,179188],"class_list":{"0":"post-387148","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-cycling","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-cycling","11":"tag-mathieu-van-der-poel","12":"tag-milano-sanremo","13":"tag-sports","14":"tag-tadej-pogacar","15":"tag-vincenzo-nibali"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/387148","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=387148"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/387148\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/387149"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=387148"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=387148"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=387148"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}