\n To remain competitive, businesses \u2013 no matter their size \u2013 aren\u2019t going to increase prices by as much as the tariffs they\u2019re paying on imported goods, Peacock said. With inflation taking a bigger bite out of people\u2019s paychecks \u2013 which are growing much more slowly than they had been in recent years \u2013 businesses have much less leverage to raise prices.\n <\/p>\n
\n So how much more should you prepare to pay in 2026 because of tariffs? That depends on what you\u2019re buying. Ultimately the price increases that arise will likely vary significantly by category and product. For example, grocers typically operate with thin profit margins per product, which gives them less of an ability to absorb tariffs.\n <\/p>\n
![\"People](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/2025-07-15t201203z-13990825-rc27nfa8fjfd-rtrmadp-3-usa-economy-20260102113834688.JPG\")
<\/p>\n
\n Goldman Sachs economists estimated that tariffs caused inflation to increase by half a percentage point in 2025 \u2013 roughly in line with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s statement last month that Trump\u2019s tariffs were responsible for the entirety of inflation\u2019s rise above the central bank\u2019s 2% annual inflation target (it ended the year at 2.7%). Goldman anticipates inflation will increase by three-tenths of a percentage point in just the first six months of this year, according to a note published in late December.\n <\/p>\n
\n One large grocery supplier Peacock advises, whom he declined to name for privacy reasons, mostly held off on price increases last year because it couldn\u2019t figure out the best way to account for tariffs. That\u2019s because tariff rates are vastly different depending on the product and its country of origin. And on top of that, those rates frequently change. Recently the supplier landed on applying the average tariff rate it pays across all products it sells.\n <\/p>\n
\n But there\u2019s one big X factor that could prevent prices from rising as high as they may otherwise this year: the landmark Supreme Court<\/a> case that could invalidate Trump\u2019s most sweeping tariffs. Collectively, the tariffs being challenged have brought in $130 billion as of December 14, according to US Customs and Border Protection data.\n <\/p>\n \n While not guaranteed, if the Supreme Court sides against the Trump administration, it could result in businesses getting refunds on the tariffs they\u2019ve already paid. At a minimum, it would rein in Trump\u2019s ability to impose higher tariffs without any restrictions, as he\u2019s done throughout his second term.\n <\/p>\n \n Peacock said many businesses\u2019 decisions on how to price goods in the coming year will largely hinge upon the Supreme Court\u2019s verdict, which is expected to be announced in the coming weeks.\n <\/p>\n \n That said Trump and members of his administration have already foreshadowed the path ahead if the Supreme Court rules against them. (Hint: it involves more<\/a> tariffs.)\n <\/p>\n \n On the other hand, with affordability concerns front and center, eroding Trump\u2019s favorability, the president has recently backed off a variety of higher tariffs that were either set to take effect or had been formally proposed. That includes produce, furniture, cabinet and pasta tariffs.\n <\/p>\n