{"id":39081,"date":"2025-08-02T03:49:10","date_gmt":"2025-08-02T03:49:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/39081\/"},"modified":"2025-08-02T03:49:10","modified_gmt":"2025-08-02T03:49:10","slug":"perfect-storm-points-to-us-recession-and-rba-interest-rate-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/39081\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;Perfect storm&#8217; points to US recession and RBA interest rate cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Global financial markets have responded swiftly to much-worse-than-expected US economic data.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 73,000 in July, which was well below expectations of over 100,000 jobs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">However, combined with &#8220;shocking&#8221; revisions to employment data from May and June, there were 258,000 fewer jobs than previously expected.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">The weak data followed another round of <a class=\"Link_link__kR0xA Link_link__5eL5m ScreenReaderOnly_srLinkHint__OysWz Link_showVisited__C1Fea Link_showFocus__ALyv2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2025-08-02\/us-jobs-report-donald-trump-tariff\/105603812\" data-component=\"Link\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/article\/105603812\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">changes to reciprocal tariffs.<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday, Australian time, that adjusted so-called reciprocal tariffs on many countries, with new levies ranging from 10 per cent to 41 per cent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Mr Trump told NBC News in a phone interview that he was open to more compelling offers, but it was &#8220;too late&#8221; for some nations to avoid duties as of next week.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"The president of the United States stands at a microphone and points a finger \" class=\"Image_image__5tFYM ContentImage_image__DQ_cq\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/b81a5477415b6887a98d2ff19e5d2ad9\" loading=\"lazy\" data-component=\"Image\" data-lazy=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP FigureCaption_text__zDxQ5 Typography_sizeMobile12__w_FPC Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">Donald Trump initiated another round of tariffs on Friday.\u00a0 (Reuters: Kent Nishimura)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;It was a perfect storm,&#8221; Marcus Today senior portfolio manager Henry Jennings said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Weak revisions weighed more than the actual [July data].<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;[The employment data for July] could have been explained away.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2025-08-02\/us-jobs-report-donald-trump-tariff\/105603812\" data-component=\"FullBleedLink\" class=\"RelatedCard_link__rsgR9 FullBleedLink_root__lTw_U interactive_focusContext__yRhc_ interactive_defaults__AKxUU FullBleedLink_showVisited__g3Xvz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Cracks emerge in US jobs market as Trump unveils new tariffs<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP RelatedCard_synopsis__cFwMW Typography_sizeMobile14__u7TGe Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">Companies in the US are grappling with President Donald Trump&#8217;s sweeping tariffs, government data showed Friday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Analysts said there was head-scratching among financial market participants around how the employment data for May and June could have been so inaccurate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Mr Trump responded by sacking Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Trump blames the messenger, but uncertainty and tariffs are the real cause,&#8221; Mr Jennings said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;[There has been] too much complacency [in financial markets] and reliance on technology [stocks] which is not the real world or economy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Chickens coming home to do their thing.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Stock markets fall<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Wall Street&#8217;s benchmark index, the S&amp;P 500, closed down 101 points, or 1.6 per cent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">France&#8217;s CAC fell close to 3 per cent, while Germany&#8217;s DAX fell 639 points, or 2.7 per cent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Investors sold equities or shares and bought US government bonds, sending their yields sharply down.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Bond yields move inversely to their prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">The 10-Year US Treasury bond fell 0.15 per cent to 4.225 per cent.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"A man with his finger to his face as he looks at multiple screens. \" class=\"Image_image__5tFYM ContentImage_image__DQ_cq\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/625df723cf575585836fd24d3f68a211\" loading=\"lazy\" data-component=\"Image\" data-lazy=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP FigureCaption_text__zDxQ5 Typography_sizeMobile12__w_FPC Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">Global markets have begun to fall.\u00a0 (AP: Seth Wenig)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Bond markets had their biggest one-day drop in yields after a very soft jobs number and big downward revisions to prior months,&#8221; Jamieson Coote Bond&#8217;s James Wilson said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Bond markets are pricing in further economic slowdown and questioning whether the Federal Reserve will now need to cut more aggressively or put the US into recession.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">FNArena finance commentator, Danielle Ecuyer, said the news of tariffs and disappointing US economic data hit global stock markets that had been flirting with record highs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;US markets went into Friday&#8217;s disappointing job report at record levels,&#8221; she said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;When combined with higher than expected global tariffs, including on major trading partners like Canada, and a poor earnings outlook from tech giant Amazon, it was enough for profit taking and sellers to move in.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;August is a typically weak and volatile month for equity markets as the northern hemisphere goes on holiday.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;This year is unlikely to be different after the record V-shaped recovery from April lows.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Wilson Asset Management owner Geoff Wilson told the ABC that global financial markets were now pricing in a serious downturn for the US economy.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2025-08-01\/donald-trump-signs-tariff-policy-order\/105588612\" data-component=\"FullBleedLink\" class=\"RelatedCard_link__rsgR9 FullBleedLink_root__lTw_U interactive_focusContext__yRhc_ interactive_defaults__AKxUU FullBleedLink_showVisited__g3Xvz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Trump reveals new &#8216;reciprocal&#8217; tariffs<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP RelatedCard_synopsis__cFwMW Typography_sizeMobile14__u7TGe Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">Donald Trump orders new tariffs on trading partners, to take effect in seven days \u2014 but Australia avoids a tariff hike, for now.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Markets are reacting to noise in the data as if a hidden recession has emerged, while the core indicators still align with a resilient economy.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">He said the latest US jobs report supports the case for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its next meeting.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">But that would be a mistake, he argued, if the disappointing jobs data was not reflective of the health of the US economy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;If the Federal Reserve cuts [interest rates] now, it risks undermining its credibility,&#8221; Mr Wilson said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Mr Trump said on early Saturday morning, Australian time, that the Federal Reserve Board should &#8220;\u2026 assume control and do what everyone knows has to be done.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">He later wrote on social media, &#8220;Jerome &#8216;Too Late&#8217; Powell, a stubborn moron, must substantially lower interest rates, now.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>RBA watching closely<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"RBA sign behind market graphics\" class=\"Image_image__5tFYM ContentImage_image__DQ_cq\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/8ee12450ff98f3e2e3fa26e91a58d79d\" loading=\"lazy\" data-component=\"Image\" data-lazy=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP FigureCaption_text__zDxQ5 Typography_sizeMobile12__w_FPC Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">Financial markets often appear to &#8220;shrug and move on&#8221; from Mr Trump&#8217;s tariff decisions, but the RBA says it was watching like &#8220;hawks&#8221;. (ABC News: Kylie Silvester)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Australia&#8217;s Reserve Bank has previously said it was watching US economic developments, and the interactions between Jerome Powell and Donald Trump, closely.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;I can&#8217;t speak to what goes through Mr Trump&#8217;s mind,&#8221; RBA governor Michele Bullock told journalists at the bank&#8217;s July press conference.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;I&#8217;m not sure anyone can.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Obviously, I think as we all know, Jay Powell&#8217;s term is coming to an end.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;It&#8217;s going to be interesting to see what happens from here.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;But I would say that generally, the general principle around the world of central bank independence still remains a very firm guiding light,&#8221; she said.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2024-08-04\/us-economy-headed-towards-recession-sparking-global-concern\/104179908\" data-component=\"FullBleedLink\" class=\"RelatedCard_link__rsgR9 FullBleedLink_root__lTw_U interactive_focusContext__yRhc_ interactive_defaults__AKxUU FullBleedLink_showVisited__g3Xvz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Fears US economy headed towards recession<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP RelatedCard_synopsis__cFwMW Typography_sizeMobile14__u7TGe Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">There are genuine concerns the world&#8217;s largest economy is heading toward a recession, and the fear is gripping global financial markets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">For Australians, overnight developments could be positive.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">The news saw the Australian dollar climb over 1 per cent to near 65 US cents, which would be welcomed by travellers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">It has since edged back slightly.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">As for mortgage borrowers, analysts say a US recession would force the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Based on movement in Australian money markets overnight, there could be similar downward pressure on local interest rates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Australia&#8217;s 3-Year Bond plummeted overnight, down 0.118 points to 3.331.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;[The RBA] may be thinking about cutting interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at its next meeting,&#8221; Mr Wilson told the ABC.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Global financial markets have responded swiftly to much-worse-than-expected US economic data. Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 73,000&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":39082,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[2001,64,63,99,2490,2005,2007,5463,4688,1491],"class_list":{"0":"post-39081","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-asx","9":"tag-au","10":"tag-australia","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-donald-trump","13":"tag-dow-jones","14":"tag-nasdaq","15":"tag-sp-500","16":"tag-tariffs","17":"tag-wall-street"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39081"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39081\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39082"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}